2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 5)

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 9 Posts: 5087 View Predictions]

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Rachel615 wrote:

True, but Field, unlike Affleck or Cooper, isn’t primarily known as an actor, so I don’t think that bias, to the extent it exists, will be held against him.

I actually think his bias is that his movies are mostly writing based, just like McDonagh as well. I don’t think he will get in.

Bythewood is someone to watch out if The Woman King ends up being a thing.

[Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan Joined: Dec 5th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 868 View Predictions]

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nkb325 wrote:

Last years BP winner: https://twitter.com/sianheder/status/1574265135656411137?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet “The Woman King is amazing. Cheering and crying and all the feelings. @GPBmadeit killed it. What a singular vision. And that cast – @violadavis, @ThusoMbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim. Loved.”

I’m still thinking people are seriously underestimating TWK

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2184 View Predictions]

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I was cautiously excited to read that AFTER having seen the movie, Scott Feinberg includes She Said in his list of “frontrunner” Best Picture predictions, and includes Maria Schrader (as Director), and Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan (both in lead) and Jennifer Ehle, Samantha Morton and Patricia Clarkson (in supporting) all as “major threats” for nominations, BUT THEN I saw that he included among his five “frontrunners” for Best Actor both Adam Sandler and Tom Cruise, so….
See https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/feinberg-forecast-95th-oscars-1235220600/

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2184 View Predictions]

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Derrick_Eoghan_Oisin_OCallaghan wrote:

I’m still thinking people are seriously underestimating TWK

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Scott Feinberg includes it as a “frontrunner” for a BP nomination; he also includes Gina Prince-Bythewood as a “frontrunner” in Director and Viola as a “frontrunner” in lead actress AND Thuso Mbedu as a “frontrunner” in supporting actress.

[Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan Joined: Dec 5th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 868 View Predictions]

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Rachel615 wrote:

I was pleasantly surprised to see that Scott Feinberg includes it as a “frontrunner” for a BP nomination; he also includes Gina Prince-Bythewood as a “frontrunner” in Director and Viola as a “frontrunner” in lead actress AND Thuso Mbedu as a “frontrunner” in supporting actress.

I like Scott’s thinking………..I can see the film getting in for Best Picture and Viola for Best Actress but let’s see about the others.

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2184 View Predictions]

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Derrick_Eoghan_Oisin_OCallaghan wrote:

I like Scott’s thinking………..I can see the film getting in for Best Picture and Viola for Best Actress but let’s see about the others.

I think Feinberg, like a number of other pundits (including Clayton Davis), uses his predictions column this early in the Oscar campaign season to boost and promote films he personally likes, rather than predict films he legitimately has reason to believe will or could win based on conversations with AMPAS voters or industry personnel. Nonetheless, I’d always rather see films and filmmakers I like included in his predictions than omitted from them.

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1774 View Predictions]

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CarlosEdu wrote:

I’m really curious to see how Decision To Leave goes in this award season. If it becomes a big contender and critics push hard, I can see Park Chan-wook being a top 3 in Best Director (call me crazy if you want haha). Already saw the movie and his directing is fantastic, it’s the greatest thing in DTL, even if you don’t like the movie you’ll like what he has done here.

Spielberg is the favorite now but I feel like his hype could die until the Oscars, it feels the kind of movie that has a big hype after TIFF and wins only one categorie in the end (this could be the place but I’m not so sure yet). 

I feel similarly. If Park gets in, I’m not convinced he’d be 4th or 5th. I’d expect him to have a lot of international support, with him being a Cannes mainstay over the years and the BAFTA win for The Handmaiden when it was neither campaigned all that well nor South Korea’s selection that year.

I go back and forth on whether The Fablemans will end up being this year’s Boyhood or not, but a lot will depend on how much steam it can pick up in the fall. I don’t think critics will feel a ton of pressure to boost it.

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1567 View Predictions]

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Rachel615 wrote:

I was cautiously excited to read that AFTER having seen the movie, Scott Feinberg includes She Said in his list of “frontrunner” Best Picture predictions, and includes Maria Schrader (as Director), and Carey Mulligan, Zoe Kazan (both in lead) and Jennifer Ehle, Samantha Morton and Patricia Clarkson (in supporting) all as “major threats” for nominations, BUT THEN I saw that he included among his five “frontrunners” for Best Actor both Adam Sandler and Tom Cruise, so…. See https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/feinberg-forecast-95th-oscars-1235220600/

so he really included Women talking after campaigning against it

also i don’t think the director of she said will make it , she will get the farelly / sorkin treatement or maybe european will boost her who knows

[Derrick Eoghan Oisín O'Callaghan Joined: Dec 5th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 868 View Predictions]

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Hmmm.  I really like Scott’s predictions.  I really think Olivia Colman is dead in the water now.  Something is telling me Danielle Deadwyler will take her spot for Best Actress if Till becomes a success.

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1567 View Predictions]

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since saint omer is the most acclaimed movie can Alice Diop be the foreign director push ?

[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1190 View Predictions]

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Setia_Yasmine_Khalil wrote:

since saint omer is the most acclaimed movie can Alice Diop be the foreign director push ?

I guess it’s possible but she doesn’t really have the name recognition and the possible overdue narrative of filmmakers like Park Chan-wook or Ruben Ostlund. I suppose if the film fares really well with critics circles, which it definitely could, she might go the Hamaguchi route, but Drive My Car received immense backing and got into Picture, so it’s a big if. I think she might get a BAFTA nod, though, which means she could always surprise.

[xandyeugh Joined: Aug 21st, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 240 View Predictions]

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BEST PICTURE:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Babylon
The Whale
Tar
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

[MichelleReign Joined: Sep 16th, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 2052 View Predictions]

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The Daniels are campaigning

Come watch me interview the fabulous Daniels—the directorial duo behind Everything Everywhere All At Once—at @newyorkerfest! October 9, 5:30. https://t.co/Gq5G8lf5W9

— Emily Nussbaum (@emilynussbaum) September 21, 2022

[Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 36 Posts: 1460 View Predictions]

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Frontrunners:
Glass Onion
Women Talking
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin

Next in Line:
EEAAO
The Woman King
Tar
Living

Second Tier:
She Said
Avatar 2
Top Gun: Maverick
Black Panter: Wakanda Forever
Decision to Leave
Triangle of Madness
The Menu
All Quiet On The Western Front
TILL
The Whale
Bardo

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: Holy Spider
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia de Leon
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

[xohours Joined: Aug 13th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 1112 View Predictions]

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Glass Onion “frontrunner”