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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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  • Bonehead
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    #1205171933

    Avatar: The Way of Water
    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    Top Gun: Maverick

    How many of the four do you think will make the Picture lineup?
    What’s the order of likelihood?


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    #1205171949
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    Bonehead
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    #1205171958

    I don’t think Knives Out is getting in. This first one didn’t, I’ve heard from many that the follow up isn’t as strong. You never know with Netflix, especially since this isn’t a strong year for them, they may go all in on this, but I’m still not buying it.

    One thing to consider is that Glass Onion will likely be #1 on Netflix all through the voting period.


    kamila
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    #1205171967

    There are some rumblings that Glass Onion could get a re-release in theaters, which would not only be good for its chances but may put it into competition with some of the December releases.


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    Bonehead
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    #1205171989

    I am also considering the what if of what if’s. What if Avatar 2 flops critic wise, not even flops, but let’s say low 60s. Do you think it still makes it in even if it’s a monster at the Box Office?

    “There’s two things I’ve learned during my time in the entertainment industry. #1. Don’t piss off Kim Masters and #2. Don’t underestimate James Cameron. Those are the two rules in Hollywood.” – Jeff Sneider

    It’s possible that Avatar 2 flops critically and at the domestic box office. However, I think the international support for the film is going to be colossal, which would still keep it in the conversation.


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    #1205171993
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    abelfenty
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    #1205172004

    Avatar: The Way of Water
    Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
    Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    Top Gun: Maverick

    How many of the four do you think will make the Picture lineup?
    What’s the order of likelihood?

    I think they’ll all make it except Black Panther.

    I don’t understand why people are underestimating Glass Onion. It’s going to be a DLU-level monster hit on Netflix and it has great reviews too.


    Bonehead
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    #1205172006

    What’s the international pick though? I can’t decide and there’s 10 slots. You’d figure an international film will show up.

    Decision to Leave and All Quiet on the Western Front, with the possibility of RRR showing up if it gets a substantial critics push.

    I was big on All Quiet on the Western Front, but the buzz died rather quickly on it. I have Park Chan-wook in my director lineup, but I feel doubtful that there’s enough broad support for Decision to Leave from the other branches for it to make the picture lineup.


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    #1205172012
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    #1205172021
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    Bonehead
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    #1205173287

    I think they’ll all make it except Black Panther.

    Ok, let me ask another question:

    Between Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Woman King, and Till, which has the best chance at a Best Picture nomination?

     


    pedrohf2001
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    #1205173291

    If there is justice in this world, The Menu should be nominated for Best Picture and it pisses me off that it probably won’t.


    JV
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    #1205173293

    After watching TAR, I think Todd Field will get in. Extremely showy and experimental work, akin to things like The Favourite, Drive My Car, Foxcatcher and Phantom Thread.

    I’m also confused by why some people have it missing Screenplay. The opening scene with the interview is already extremely baity.

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