2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

[TrumpBiden Joined: Dec 22nd, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 927 View Predictions]

#1205173629

Honestly, at this point it’ll either be an EEAO sweep, or it’ll duke it out with Banshees… possibly a third contender Avatar 2. Everything else is bye, bye. And yes even The Fablemans which is pretty much being hyped right now but will die off once precursors start.

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4729 View Predictions]

#1205173653

Everything Everywhere All At Once making more money than a Steven Speilberg movie is quite pleasing.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 240 Posts: 36929 View Predictions]

#1205173680

Best Picture

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Women Talking
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. The Fabelmans
5. Tár
6. Top Gun : Maverick
7. Glass Onion : A Knives Out Story
8. Babylon
9. She Said
10. Decision to Leave

Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
4. Todd Field, Tár
5. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
8. James Cameron, Avatar : The Way of Water
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
10. Alejandro G. Inarritu, Bardo

I’m beginning to get very shaky on Decision to Leave. I can see the critical push being more for Park Chan-wook in the director race than the film itself. I’m very tempted to slot The Whale in its place because, whilst I don’t think it will perform as strong as it, I’m getting a bit of The Father déjà vu from its awards campaign. Elvis feels tempting too because of its below the line support and the Warner Bros. of it all although I’m not sure how to justify having Fraser ahead if I have it without The Whale.

The Woman King feels like a film that could be ready to slip in here if something fumbles but I actually wonder if we could be sleeping on Aftersun. I mean I myself am not predicting it to get nominated right now (although I do have Paul Mescal in best actor) but I’m anticipating it’s going to get a strong critical push over the coming weeks and it’s a film that people seem to LOVE. With 10 slots and a lack of consensus I can see it capitalising almost like Sound of Metal did in the last stretches of the season (especially if Mescal ends up solidifying his position as a nominee).

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1780 View Predictions]

#1205173745

I still have it in for now, but The Whale‘s rollout isn’t promising for the BP lineup. A24 seems pretty terrified about the potential discourse around this film. It won’t hurt the film on acting nominations but I’m not sure they’re ready to do a full court press for Picture. Other options on the bubble seem to at least have a narrative that’s actively being pushed around the film itself, whether it’s box office, the social message, etc.

[moonshineandmollyxo Joined: Aug 23rd, 2022 Topics: 0 Posts: 322 View Predictions]

#1205173811

It seems like Fraser had the narrative and goodwill to be an unstoppable force to win but the movie around him and all of Aronfosky’s….Aronfoskyness let him down. He is not out of the conversation to win yet but still. The anticipation around The Whale was that it would be Darren’s big comeback after mother! and it would get tons of nominations for everyone, it had a Best Picture nom on lock, and Fraser would be unstoppable. Well – 🤪

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1567 View Predictions]

#1205173828

kamila wrote:

I still have it in for now, but The Whale‘s rollout isn’t promising for the BP lineup. A24 seems pretty terrified about the potential discourse around this film. It won’t hurt the film on acting nominations but I’m not sure they’re ready to do a full court press for Picture. Other options on the bubble seem to at least have a narrative that’s actively being pushed around the film itself, whether it’s box office, the social message, etc.

i mean the playwriter himself said the play is divisive so yeah

[kamila Joined: Dec 6th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1780 View Predictions]

#1205173876

Setia_Yasmine_Khalil wrote:

i mean the playwriter himself said the play is divisive so yeah

It’s divisive but I shouldn’t be able to smell the fear of the studio this much. Bad reviews or not, SPC clearly believed in The Son before it got panned. And The Whale seems to have supporters coming out of the festivals so it’s already in better shape.

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1567 View Predictions]

#1205173885

moonshineandmollyxo wrote:

It seems like Fraser had the narrative and goodwill to be an unstoppable force to win but the movie around him and all of Aronfosky’s….Aronfoskyness let him down. He is not out of the conversation to win yet but still. The anticipation around The Whale was that it would be Darren’s big comeback after mother! and it would get tons of nominations for everyone, it had a Best Picture nom on lock, and Fraser would be unstoppable. Well –

that’s what Jason thinks lol

if anyone stops WT in adapted screenplay it’s glass onion not the whale

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2188 View Predictions]

#1205174002

kamila wrote:

The Whale‘s rollout isn’t promising for the BP lineup. A24 seems pretty terrified about the potential discourse around this film. It won’t hurt the film on acting nominations but I’m not sure they’re ready to do a full court press for Picture. Other options on the bubble seem to at least have a narrative that’s actively being pushed around the film itself, whether it’s box office, the social message, etc.

I took it out of my BP predictions for the reason you’ve identified.

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 459 View Predictions]

#1205174041

I don’t really know where else to put this so here’s some NYFCC predix:

Film: Tar
Director: Todd Field, Tar
Actor: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Actress: Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Supporting Actress: Rachel Sennott, Bodies Bodies Bodies (NGNG)
Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin
Cinematography: Tar
Non-Fiction: All the Beauty & the Bloodshed
Foreign: Decision to Leave
Animated: GDT’s Pinocchio
1st Film: Aftersun

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 224 View Predictions]

#1205174116

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[DaKardii Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 34 Posts: 681 View Predictions]

#1205174153

DECEMBER 1 PREDICTIONS

Picture

1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Top Gun: Maverick
5. Women Talking
6. TAR
7. The Woman King
8. Elvis
9. Babylon
10. Glass Onion

 

Director

1. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
2. Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
3. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
4. Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
5. Todd Field (TAR)

[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1661 View Predictions]

#1205174264

PICTURE

1. The Fabelmans
2. Women Talking
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Elvis
6. TÁR
7. Till
8. She Said
9. Top Gun: Maverick <<< The Winner (If Nominated)
10. Avatar: The Way of Water

DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
2. Todd Field for TÁR
3. Sarah Polley for Women Talking
4. Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Park Chan-wook for Decision to Leave

[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 0 Posts: 224 View Predictions]

#1205174287

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[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1661 View Predictions]

#1205174300

wrote:

Tar, Till, and She Said!? Whew. You’re braver than I am. I’m in for Tar, but I can’t even begin to predict Till or She Said

The Academy has a type

Never underestimate critically acclaimed films about important American historical events/figures.

She Said is a nearly locked adapted screenplay contender and I think that Women Talking is NOT going to be the only Best Picture nominee in that category.

Till is a potential Best Actress winner.