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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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  • nkb325
    Joined:
    Feb 6th, 2012
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    #1205176085

    I don’t think she needs BP though. Honestly if Till could pull *anything* BTL (or miraculously landed the 5th Original Screenplay spot), that would offer more promise of her chances. Picture will be pretty tough.

    You also don’t seem to really need a best picture nomination in best actress. Last year Kidman couldn’t even pull Ricardos into BP and the acting branch loved that movie. The leading categories over the years have become much more about the type of role you’re playing and the perceived “difficulty” rather than love for an overall movie. Last year we had 3 female led best picture nominees, including the winner, and none of those leads got nominated.

    I think the biggest thing in Deadwyler’s path is Ackie, as not only are they both in biopics but they’re both aiming for the newcomer narrative. I think that’s what got in the way of the three BP nominee leading ladies last year, they were all newcomers and cancelled each other out.


    Actormogul
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    Nov 6th, 2011
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    #1205176091

    You also don’t seem to really need a best picture nomination in best actress. Last year Kidman couldn’t even pull Ricardos into BP and the acting branch loved that movie. The leading categories over the years have become much more about the type of role you’re playing and the perceived “difficulty” rather than love for an overall movie. Last year we had 3 female led best picture nominees, including the winner, and none of those leads got nominated.

    I think the biggest thing in Deadwyler’s path is Ackie, as not only are they both in biopics but they’re both aiming for the newcomer narrative. I think that’s what got in the way of the three BP nominee leading ladies last year, they were all newcomers and cancelled each other out.

    I only think a newcomer can win if their movie is in BP. It seems like to me most of the time when rewarding sole nominees it’s an industry darling who’s overdue, made a comeback, or delivered their best work. I hope I’m wrong as I’d love a win for Deadwyler but I dont see them feeling the need to reward her over Blanchett and Yeoh when both give captivating performances Blanchettes career best and Yeoh has never won before!


    kamila
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    #1205176096

    I think the biggest thing in Deadwyler’s path is Ackie, as not only are they both in biopics but they’re both aiming for the newcomer narrative. I think that’s what got in the way of the three BP nominee leading ladies last year, they were all newcomers and cancelled each other out.

    As time passes, I just don’t think Ackie is in this anymore, and if she is, Deadwyler has already cemented herself on another tier with Gotham. When the Till trailer came out, everyone was talking about how it was stacked with Oscar clips. The IWDWS trailer didn’t really set up Ackie for a narrative that she’s undeniable as Whitney (unlike Butler in Elvis also).

    I may have to change my mind on this if it does well with box office, but I see Deadwyler and Williams as in their own tier and then Davis/Ackie/Robbie on the next step down.


    Mladen
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    #1205176123

    When it comes to TÁR, I think it is safe for Best Picture, probably Best Director. It is not win-competitive, but it is clearly mid-tier.

    What is interesting that both in Venice and now in New York we see that they see Blanchett as the one to be awarded for this movie, that she is TÁR’s best place to get an award. Blanchett’s own pedigree aside, everyone that worked on this movie spoke about her. From Field and Hoss to Hildur and Hoffmeister. So I see members of Academy wanting to give something to TÁR and doing it via Blanchett.

    I can’t see “Till” in Top 10, regardless of how great Deadwyler is. I don’t even think it is in Top 15 at the moment. Also, Deadwyler doesn’t have competition of the last few years. She has two actresses with career-best reviews (even three) in Best Picture nominated movies. It is not impossible, but it may be difficult.

    Spreading the Love: Oscars 2023
    Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once
    Best Director: The Daniels
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett


    federico rubachin
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2019
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    #1205176379

    clayton adds RRR to his best picture prediction 2023 and has banshees as the winner instead of fabelsman https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-picture-predictions-1235306911/


    federico rubachin
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    jjjmoss
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    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1205177035

    fabelmans already having such a per theater avg is…a bit crap, hmm


    federico rubachin
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    #1205177142

    erik anderson from  award watch put 4 to babylon today in his review. Also a golderby’s editor put 5 to babylon in his review


    loudtoilet
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    #1205177441

    As time passes, I just don’t think Ackie is in this anymore.

    Au contraire, she’s very much in. The lineup needs an ingenue. Some late breaker always gets in and she is in better position than Robbie cause her movie will be huge.

    I expect Ackie to miss SAG due to late screener but get AMPAS nom over some typical SAG pick.

    Fabelmans is not winning. They didn’t give it to ROMA and Belfast, they won’t give it to Fabelmans even if that one is more accessible to AMPAS (Hollywood, no accents that require subtitles, not an interminable slog and in foreign language to boot).

    My bet is EEAAO – forget being divisive, rules and stats are meant to be broken – cause nothing else makes sense. After the Hallmark win, AMPAS will go for something totally opposite.


    Cluedon657
    Joined:
    Dec 28th, 2017
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    #1205177499

    Picture:

    1. The Banshees of Inisherin
    2. The Fabelmans
    3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
    4. Women Talking
    5. Tar
    6. Elvis
    7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
    8. Top Gun: Maverick
    9. Gullermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
    10. Avatar: The Way of Water

    Director:

    1. The Fabelmans
    2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
    3. Women Talking
    4. The Banshees of Inisherin
    5. Decision to Leave


    kamila
    Joined:
    Dec 6th, 2021
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    #1205177547

    Au contraire, she’s very much in. The lineup needs an ingenue. Some late breaker always gets in and she is in better position than Robbie cause her movie will be huge.

    I expect Ackie to miss SAG due to late screener but get AMPAS nom over some typical SAG pick.

    Ackie’s not going to get rubber stamped in just because she’s the youngest contender near the top. There have been years where no one fit the bill as an ingenue, and for some intents and purposes Deadwyler is getting that treatment. Ackie is likely not going to happen if she can’t get SAG, which is by far the friendliest voting body to a biopic performance.

    The film will be huge because of the subject matter, but it’s put itself in a position where it has to be very strong because it’s releasing so late. To tell you the truth, I’m just not sure this film will have enough militant supporters.


    ejaru1810
    Joined:
    Sep 10th, 2021
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    #1205177558

    Chances are Ackie misses GG and CC for screening issues, if that problem remains for SAG, she won’t happen.


    laslo
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1205177586

    The strategy behind the I Wanna Dance with Somebody campaign is one of the weirdest things about this year’s race.
    Voting for SAG starts tomorrow and buzz around the film is still muted. It’s not the kind of performance or project that manages to skip the precursors and build buzz closer to the finish line. And please no comparisons to Meryl Streep in 2011, because in addition to Streep’s status, she still had Weinstein pushing her campaign. I don’t think Ackie is strong at the BAFTA, so she needs the Globes and SAG. If we are going to have a late breaker, everything indicates that Margot Robbie is the strongest candidate, for being a better known star and for having a vehicle with a much greater pedigree.


    AmnistY21
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 2018
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    #1205177591

    It’s definitely weird and Ackie needs the Globes to get the ball rolling. Oh well, bye. I can’t be too sad when a biopic bites the dust.


    24fanatic
    Joined:
    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1205177614

    Now that I’ve finally seen The Fabelmans I’m shocked that those early responses were so overly positive, giving the vibe that it was the frontrunner for Best Picture!

    The film was okay-to-good at best. There wasn’t anything overly exciting about this coming of age story. He came from a very privileged background and was afforded many opportunities most people never get. This made it difficult to root for the “character.” The film was at its best when dealing with the family drama and during the school scenes. In my opinion, it could have been an hour shorter. While it makes sense that this is a film that film bloggers and critics would go gaga for, I have a feeling the reaction from the general public for it will be mild.

    The best performance was given by Gabriel LaBelle. Everyone else was fine, but no one was award-worthy. I actually think Michelle Williams placed herself in the correct category: lead. She’s the only person who might be “safe” for a nom. That early talk of a Judd Hirsch nom… what a joke! For a 3 minute performance? No sir. Paul Dano will probably get swept along to a Supporting nom, assisted by goodwill towards him from the industry and being overdue for a nom. Otherwise, it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to be snubbed.

    My ranking for Best Picture, is now…

    1. The Banshees of Inisherin
    2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
    3. Top Gun: Maverick

    Maybe the most likely Oscar win for The Fabelmans could be Best Director. Steven is essentially the Meryl Streep of the category, having last won… what? 22-23 years ago? The sentiment of that + him telling his personal story could lead to a win. Do I think he deserves to win with this film? No. He would have been more worthy for last year’s West Side Story in my opinion.

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