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2023 Oscars: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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  • estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1205177624

    At this point, is Ackie even making the BAFTA longlist? Voting will start soon (I think?), nobody has watched the movie and the buzz is dead. I Wanna Dance With Somebody is sending The United States vs Billie Holiday vibes. Day managed a nom from a GG win, despite tanking at SAG and not even making the BAFTA longlist, but that year was WEAK and this years competition is stacked as hell. I don’t really see her making SAG atm, considering how awful they are to catch up with late releases and BAFTA is looking like a pipe dream. I know I was bullish about her months ago but this campaign strategy has to be one of the dumbest things I’ve seen in a while.


    TrumpBiden
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    Dec 22nd, 2020
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    #1205177716

    Can’t wait for the Fablemans hype to die off. It’s already under-performing in critics circles, it’ll be worse with televised precursors. No idea why people hyped it. Again, think Spielberg will not win and if he does it’s literally a “Here, have this for being a legendary director,” type of thing. And yet, don’t think the Oscar’s will award him just because of the narrative hence why I’m predicting elsewhere for the win.


    snowball
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    #1205177792

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there? Fabelmans is too obvious. Not feeling it.


    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1205177808

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there? Fabelmans is too obvious. Not feeling it.

    They have a massive A24 and Warner Bros. bias, so I think Everything Everywhere All At Once has a huge shot.


    lorelei lor
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    Dec 20th, 2017
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    #1205177812

    Or Elvis… 👀


    Setia Yasmine Khalil
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    Jan 14th, 2022
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    #1205177845

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there? Fabelmans is too obvious. Not feeling it.

    Eeao or top gun


    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1205177854

    Or Elvis… 👀


    Bonehead
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1205177858

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there?

    Winning NBR can sometimes be a kiss of death, so hopefully Top Gun: Maverick wins there.


    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 1970
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    #1205177864
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    federico rubachin
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2019
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    #1205177936

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there? Fabelmans is too obvious. Not feeling it.

    EEAO, elvis or she said


    Bonehead
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    Jan 20th, 2021
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    #1205177979

    I really hate this notion that The Academy needs to adapt and redefine what an Awards picture is.

    The Oscars aren’t out of touch. They’re supposed to be elitist.

    If The Academy decides to nominate big box office hits like Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in favor of films like She Said and TAR, what message does that send to movie financiers?

    Who’s gonna fork up millions of dollars to make another She Said if they know there’s no chance they’ll get to put little gold statues and floral reefs in their marketing materials?


    jjjmoss
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2016
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    #1205177993

    Winning NBR can sometimes be a kiss of death, so hopefully Top Gun: Maverick wins there.

    last 10 years

    NY – SNUBS first cow, carol; WINS n/a

    NBR – SNUBS violent, bloods; WINS green book

     


    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1205178015

    With NBR being so close what do you think will win Best Film there? Fabelmans is too obvious. Not feeling it.

    The Fabelmans, and Director too. They love Spielberg.


    laslo
    Joined:
    Oct 19th, 2021
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    #1205178043

    Hi! Longtime lurker and I wanted to ask a question. Does anyone know if Avatar 2 will even have a chance to get nominated at the globes? I know Avatar (2009) had a London premiere mid December and therefore missed AFI and NBR. Since Avatar 2 is getting released a bit later than that I was wondering since it has only received nominations for its music so far. Dumb question but not sure how this works. Thanks!

    Avatar: The Way of Water completed post-production in late November. The deadline for HFPA voters to turn in nomination ballots is December 7. It’s a very short window, and we have no word on whether HFPA voters will get any early access to the film. The only published information is that the film’s first press screening will take place on December 6th in NYC.
    It is likely that they will be sent some additional campaign material from the project, and thus get some to vote for it based on a certain prestige. But the truth is, we don’t know what the film’s prospects are at the Globes. I would also like to know if anyone has any additional information.


    Shrek Superslam
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    Feb 7th, 2019
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    #1205178062

    Now that I’ve finally seen The Fabelmans I’m shocked that those early responses were so overly positive, giving the vibe that it was the frontrunner for Best Picture! The film was okay-to-good at best. There wasn’t anything overly exciting about this coming of age story. He came from a very privileged background and was afforded many opportunities most people never get. This made it difficult to root for the “character.” The film was at its best when dealing with the family drama and during the school scenes. In my opinion, it could have been an hour shorter. While it makes sense that this is a film that film bloggers and critics would go gaga for, I have a feeling the reaction from the general public for it will be mild. The best performance was given by Gabriel LaBelle. Everyone else was fine, but no one was award-worthy. I actually think Michelle Williams placed herself in the correct category: lead. She’s the only person who might be “safe” for a nom. That early talk of a Judd Hirsch nom… what a joke! For a 3 minute performance? No sir. Paul Dano will probably get swept along to a Supporting nom, assisted by goodwill towards him from the industry and being overdue for a nom. Otherwise, it wouldn’t surprise me if he were to be snubbed. My ranking for Best Picture, is now… 1. The Banshees of Inisherin 2. Everything Everywhere All At Once 3. Top Gun: Maverick Maybe the most likely Oscar win for The Fabelmans could be Best Director. Steven is essentially the Meryl Streep of the category, having last won… what? 22-23 years ago? The sentiment of that + him telling his personal story could lead to a win. Do I think he deserves to win with this film? No. He would have been more worthy for last year’s West Side Story in my opinion.

    This is a very interesting review to read.

    I like that you picked up on Spielberg’s background not actually being the most interesting. I mention this because, for as many people criticize Belfast, they forget that the Troubles in Ireland is actually a period worth exploring and added to a lot of interest in the plot of Belfast and gave the story the necessary gravitas, in a similar way to Boorman’s Hope & Glory.

    On the other hand, The Fabelmans seems quite dull to me and lacking the flavour of Belfast or Roma. The only reason it’s getting such big traction is cos it’s Scorsese. If Todd Philips made the exact same movie, no one would care and it wouldn’t get Oscar traction, which makes it pretty unlikely to win Best Picture.

    For the record, I think Women Talking has a similar element of artificial buzz due to the subject matter and people’s desire to reward Sarah Polley.

    And I think The Whale DEFINITELY has this too with people wanting to reward Brendan Fraser and a “transformational performance”.

    I hope that none of those movies win Picture, as I think it would be an all-too perfect demonstration with how Hollywood (and specifically the Oscars) are out of touch with people’s actual interests.

    That’s why I’m thoroughly convinced that Elvis gets in here – a HUGE audience hit (given it’s a non-IP movie) and a lead performance that many think could propel Austin Butler to movie stardom.

    It’s disappointing that a lot of the Oscar movies this year aren’t going to make any money.

    But I would like to point to it being an issue of Hollywood cannibalising itself. They are the ones who have prioritised autuer movies, “important movies”, cinematic universes and have more or less killed “the movie star”, which, realistically, was and probably still is the only guaranteed way to make money on a weak film.

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