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2023 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor (Part 1)

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    kamila
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    #1205040540

    I should say that I don’t mean Dano has the same career profile as Dornan, but he could be left off for other co-stars if they end up standing out more and he’s considered more of a “good hand” in telling the story of the film (also both playing the dads).

    It’s really hard to find a career comparison for him. Rather than Dunst, I’d actually compare him to Plemons. They’ve both been in several BP contenders and around for a while, but haven’t managed to bubble up enough support for a strong win-worthy narrative. I really do think Dunst had the legitimate narrative, but the year-long momentum DeBose had ended up being ironproof once West Side Story had no other wins on the table and apathy towards The Power of the Dog settled.

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    CarlosEdu
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    #1205040583

    I know he just got a Emmy nomination but I see Seth Rogen being the Jamie Dornan of this year and not Paul Dano.

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    Rachel615
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    #1205040679

    I think one interesting thing Dano, Dunst and Plemons have in common is that they were all child actors who went on to become widely respected adult actors. (I first saw Dano in 1995 when, as an 11 year old, he appeared on Broadway in a production of Inherit the Wind that starred George C. Scott and Charles Durning. Of the three, Dano has, by far, done the most stage work— he was excellent a couple of years ago starring on Broadway opposite Ethan Hawke in a revival of Sam Shepard’s play, True West; a dozen years earlier, he met Zoe Kazan when starring with her in an off-Broadway play whose name I forget that had been directed by Ethan Hawke.) Dano might not have as strong a narrative as Dunst had, but with his directing and screen writing acclaim for Wildlife, I think he has a stronger narrative than Plemons had.

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    Rachel615
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    #1205040833

    Dano is a BAFTA and Emmy nominated actor who has worked with the likes of Paul Thomas Anderson Spike Jonze, James Mangold, Steve McQueen, Kelly Reichardt, Paolo Sorrentino and Denis Villeneuve and won a wealth of critical acclaim over the course of a 26 year career prior to The Fabelmans.

    Dano has also worked with Bong Joon Ho, who wrote Dano’s role in Okja specifically for Dano.  I can’t think of any other actor under 40 who has worked with as many different prominent film directors as Dano.

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    Whirlwind
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    #1205041447

    I can absolutely see Dano riding the industry veteran narrative to a strong “Welcome to the Club” nomination but I’m not buying a win right now  He’s had 1 Emmy nom, 1 performance that gained any serious awards traction in film, and 1 film wrote/directed that did well critically. Can’t see the industry at large rallying behind him on the basis that he’s overdue for a win. A nom this year could definitely set him up for a win in the near future though.

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    Bonehead
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    #1205042309

    Could we PLEASE get Zen McGrath added to the prediction center?

    null

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    DanC
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    #1205042787

    August / Pre-Fall-Festivals Predictions:

    1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
    2. Brad Pitt, Babylon
    3. Zen McGrath, The Son
    4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
    5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

    6. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
    7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
    8. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
    9. Don Cheadle, White Noise
    10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

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    Miguel Marrero
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    #1205044429

    Why is Woody Harrelson so high up?

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    Bonehead
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    #1205044452

    He’s a big name veteran actor with multiple nominations under his belt who has a charming role in the film that won the Palme d’Or this year.

    That’s my best guess as to why.

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    wolfali
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    #1205044473

    Am I the only person who thinks Triangle of Sadness is being overestimated? These quirky Cannes films only ever break through when they have the fierce backing of critics and audiences and the critical reception to this film so far has been quite mediocre.

    I know Östlund has industry goodwill but unless it ends up becoming a massive commercial hit I think this film will emulate the path of Titane last year. It might get a few nods here and there throughout the season for Harrelson like Titane did with Ducournau and it will probably show up a couple of times on the long-list at BAFTA (and maybe get nominated there) but that feels like the ceiling imo. Drive My Car was a critics sweeper and Another Round was a crowd pleaser.

    FYC: Better Call Saul and The Good Fight in all categories including Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

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    alittle03
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    #1205044491

    Am I the only person who thinks Triangle of Sadness is being overestimated? These quirky Cannes films only ever break through when they have the fierce backing of critics and audiences and the critical reception to this film so far has been quite mediocre. I know Östlund has industry goodwill but unless it ends up becoming a massive commercial hit I think this film will emulate the path of Titane last year. It might get a few nods here and there throughout the season for Harrelson like Titane did with Ducournau and it will probably show up a couple of times on the long-list at BAFTA (and maybe get nominated there) but that feels like the ceiling imo. Drive My Car was a critics sweeper and Another Round was a crowd pleaser.

    And I’m expecting Decision to Leave to be the Drive My Car and Another Round of this year. Not so much that it’ll be crowd-pleasing (like the latter), more that I’m expecting a considerable critics haul for it (like the former) that puts it in a good position to ultimately take Int’l Feature (like both).

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1205044833

    Am I the only person who thinks Triangle of Sadness is being overestimated? These quirky Cannes films only ever break through when they have the fierce backing of critics and audiences and the critical reception to this film so far has been quite mediocre. I know Östlund has industry goodwill but unless it ends up becoming a massive commercial hit I think this film will emulate the path of Titane last year. It might get a few nods here and there throughout the season for Harrelson like Titane did with Ducournau and it will probably show up a couple of times on the long-list at BAFTA (and maybe get nominated there) but that feels like the ceiling imo. Drive My Car was a critics sweeper and Another Round was a crowd pleaser.

    I dunno, the word around Triangle of Sadness is that it’a a huge crowd hit. And it’s easily going to be NEON’s no 1 this year.

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    Sab227
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    #1205045229

    Am I the only one who feels like Quan should maybe be campaigning in lead instead of Supporting. I know Supporting is obviously an easier category to win but I’ve seen EEAAO three times now, and each time it feels like he is just of much as a lead as Michelle Yeoh.

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    Bonehead
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    #1205045237

    Am I the only one who feels like Quan should maybe be campaigning in lead instead of Supporting. I know Supporting is obviously an easier category to win but I’ve seen EEAAO three times now, and each time it feels like he is just of much as a lead as Michelle Yeoh.

    YES. Thank you. Finally somebody said it.

    Something for A24 to consider is that a push for Quan in Lead would make room for James Hong to get recognition in Supporting…

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    Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR
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    #1205045272

    Supporting is so difficult to predict.So lets see:

    01. Mark Strong – TAR
    02. Mark Rylance – The Way of The Wind
    03. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness
    04. Paul Dano – The Batman / The Fabelmans
    05. Ke Huy Quan – EEAAO

    06. Lukas Haas – Babylon
    07. Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
    08. Barry Keoghan – Banshees of Inisherin
    09. Stanley Tucci – IWDWS
    10. Julian Glover – TAR

    2023 Oscar
    Best Picture: The Way of The Wind
    Best Director: Decision to Leave
    Best Actress: TAR
    Best Actor: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actress: The Whale
    Best Supporting Actor: Poor Things

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