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2023 Oscars: Best Supporting Actor (Part 1)

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  • Bonehead
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    #1205093668

    Considering that GoldDerby’s prediction center is updated based on intel from the studios, it’s telling that Brendan Gleeson remains Lead while Michelle Williams has switched categories.

     

    "I wasn't trying to be nice. I was trying to be accurate."


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    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

    Bonehead
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    #1205093692

    Can we still make a case here for BTH without Lawrence? I’m still saying yes given the field right now, but boy do those odds ever increase right now. After todays news, I’m not so sure it’s a walk in the park without Lawrence, but there are still those rare breakout nominations for a film. He does have the raves. I just likely see the uphill battle for him even more questionable after his partner likely dropped.

    I need BTH to get that Oscar nomination, but it feels so weird having him in without JLaw. They seem like one of those package deals.

    "I wasn't trying to be nice. I was trying to be accurate."


    BrazilianDude
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    #1205093711

    Considering that GoldDerby’s prediction center is updated based on intel from the studios, it’s telling that Brendan Gleeson remains Lead while Michelle Williams has switched categories.

    Tbf, that is probably because we have no “official” statement where he will campaigned. If he is secondary lead, I hope he goes lead. Although I think he is going supporting since he was campaigned supporting for “In Bruges” even though he was co-lead with Farrell.


    jez89
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    #1205093716

    Why would Quan be such a strong favourite to win for a Sci-fi film?


    Cosmia
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    #1205093743

    Considering that GoldDerby’s prediction center is updated based on intel from the studios, it’s telling that Brendan Gleeson remains Lead while Michelle Williams has switched categories.

    But why would they campaign two leads?


    Bonehead
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    #1205093775

    But why would they campaign two leads?

    I guess it would help Searchlight maximize nominees across the board (makes room for a Michael Ward, Ralph Fiennes, or Barry Keoghan in supporting).

    Banshees being the first film in almost 40 years to get two best actor nominees for the same film would be an achievement in and of itself. The field is weak enough that they have a very realistic chance of pulling it off.

    Also, based on their similar screentime and billing, it would arguably be the “correct” category placement to have them both Lead.

    Yeah, he could end up going Supporting, but I wouldn’t hold your breath thinking that Searchlight will make that decision like so many around here are doing. Gleeson is already 6 in the prediction center with 30/1 odds and could move up even further.

    Lots of people are waiting around expecting a category shift that may never come.  If it doesn’t, they might end up kicking themselves.

    "I wasn't trying to be nice. I was trying to be accurate."


    BrazilianDude
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    #1205093796

    Why would Quan be such a strong favourite to win for a Sci-fi film?

    Because his performance was great and loved by public, critics and industry.

    And since every oscar winner needs some narrative, he has a great narrative.

    Also, the competition is not living up the hype.


    Shrek Superslam
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    #1205093798

    I have the feeling that only a category fraud can take away this award from Quan. Yeah, I am looking at you Brendan.

    Watch out for Pitt, too… I know people are putting down his chances cos of the Jolie thing, but we’re living in the Depp/Heard era. People are starting to look at these accusations with more scepticism, especially if they’re levied against attractive people.


    Cosmia
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    #1205093801

    I guess it would help Searchlight maximize nominees across the board (makes room for a Michael Ward, Ralph Fiennes, or Barry Keoghan in supporting). Banshees being the first film in almost 40 years to get two best actor nominees for the same film would be an achievement in and of itself. The field is weak enough that they have a very realistic chance of pulling it off. Also, based on their similar screentime and billing, it would arguably be the “correct” category placement to have them both Lead. Yeah, he could end up going Supporting, but I wouldn’t hold your breath thinking that Searchlight will make that decision like so many around here are doing. Gleeson is already 6 in the prediction center with 30/1 odds and could move up even further. Lots of people are waiting around expecting a category shift that may never come. If it doesn’t, they might end up kicking themselves.

    But it would split the vote?


    sarahvsmovies
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    #1205093839

    Can we still make a case here for BTH without Lawrence? I’m still saying yes given the field right now, but boy do those odds ever increase right now. After todays news, I’m not so sure it’s a walk in the park without Lawrence, but there are still those rare breakout nominations for a film. He does have the raves. I just likely see the uphill battle for him even more questionable after his partner likely dropped.

    I really, really want to. He got, honestly, better notices than Lawrence and those single supporting nods do happen, but it’ll be tough unattached to her bigger more known stardom. I’m keeping him in until I have to drop him.


    Bonehead
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    #1205093969

    But it would split the vote?

    Vote splitting for the nominations? Not likely. The field is so weak this year that Colin Farrell is safe regardless of whether Brendan Gleeson goes Lead or not. Gleeson is currently 6(!) in the prediction center and Hugh Jackman is slip, slip, slipping. To me it makes more sense for Disney, not Sony, to get two leads in the lineup.

    And vote-splitting for the win? Again, probably not. Last time there was a double actor situation for Amadeus, F. Murray Abraham still won out in the end.

    "I wasn't trying to be nice. I was trying to be accurate."


    rlk
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    #1205094718

    Brendan Gleeson officially supporting per The Hollywood Reporter:


    Bonehead
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    #1205094724

    Very happy to have an official decision!

    "I wasn't trying to be nice. I was trying to be accurate."


    mf617
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    #1205094734

    Michelle Williams moving from Supporting to Lead and making her odds of winning sharply decrease, followed a day later by Brendan Gleeson moving from Lead to Supporting and instantly becoming a top contender is what makes this part of the awards season so fun.

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