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October 6, 2022 at 3:39 am #1205108479
I’m feeling like it’s Brendan Gleeson year.
October 6, 2022 at 11:51 am #12051089151. Paul Dano
2. Brendan Gleeson
3. Brad Pitt
4. Ke Huy Quan
5. Tom HanksOctober 6, 2022 at 12:29 pm #1205109041This isn’t a perfect comparison because Causeway probably won’t be quite as big as TLD or Judas, but I think Brian Tyree Henry is very similar to Jessie Buckley and Lakeith Stanfield in that they’re all performers who have built up quite a strong resume in just a few years, and it feels like Academy voters specifically will jump at the opportunity to vote for him for the first time. I can definitely see him making it even if he only makes a couple of the precursors.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
October 6, 2022 at 1:08 pm #12051090951. Paul Dano 2. Brendan Gleeson 3. Brad Pitt 4. Ke Huy Quan 5. Tom Hanks
October 6, 2022 at 1:22 pm #1205109099IndieWire compares John Douglas Thompson in Till towards Viola Davis in Doubt.
I liked Till very much, and John Douglas Thompson is great in the scene referred to, but that scene in nowhere NEAR as powerful or memorable as the Viola Davis scene from Doubt.
October 6, 2022 at 1:59 pm #1205109203This isn’t a perfect comparison because Causeway probably won’t be quite as big as TLD or Judas, but I think Brian Tyree Henry is very similar to Jessie Buckley and Lakeith Stanfield in that they’re all performers who have built up quite a strong resume in just a few years, and it feels like Academy voters specifically will jump at the opportunity to vote for him for the first time. I can definitely see him making it even if he only makes a couple of the precursors.
I’m rooting so hard for him to make it in. I think it will be harder given I don’t think Jennifer stands much of a shot in actress but I totally think it can happen.
October 6, 2022 at 2:05 pm #1205109212This isn’t a perfect comparison because Causeway probably won’t be quite as big as TLD or Judas, but I think Brian Tyree Henry is very similar to Jessie Buckley and Lakeith Stanfield in that they’re all performers who have built up quite a strong resume in just a few years, and it feels like Academy voters specifically will jump at the opportunity to vote for him for the first time. I can definitely see him making it even if he only makes a couple of the precursors.
both of them still coattailed in with another co-star. Jlaw would most likely need to get in if that was to happen, which isn’t impossible. It’s not like she’s had many failed Oscar attempts for herself after Joy besides mother! and Don’t Look Up still got her the globe nom.
October 6, 2022 at 2:56 pm #1205109253Brian Tyree Henry should be an Oscar nominee by now. His work in Beale Street & Widows were both nomination worthy. I won’t count him out for Causeaway until official reviews come out.
October 6, 2022 at 3:12 pm #1205109269This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.October 6, 2022 at 3:30 pm #1205109317Ke Huy Quan is the Troy Kotsur of the season. His film is going to be much more win-competitive in Picture than we’re expecting, he and his character are beloved to an unbelievable degree, and you just can’t beat his narrative. Most people/pundits will be predicting Brendan Gleeson for most of the season, but as soon as Quan starts picking up precursor trophies we’re going to wonder why we ever thought he was losing.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
October 6, 2022 at 4:42 pm #1205109366Ke Huy Quan is the Troy Kotsur of the season. His film is going to be much more win-competitive in Picture than we’re expecting, he and his character are beloved to an unbelievable degree, and you just can’t beat his narrative. Most people/pundits will be predicting Brendan Gleeson for most of the season, but as soon as Quan starts picking up precursor trophies we’re going to wonder why we ever thought he was losing.
Banshees have a shot in screenplay more , i don’t think that movie is gonna go home empty handed
October 6, 2022 at 6:21 pm #1205109399Ke Huy Quan is the Troy Kotsur of the season. His film is going to be much more win-competitive in Picture than we’re expecting, he and his character are beloved to an unbelievable degree, and you just can’t beat his narrative. Most people/pundits will be predicting Brendan Gleeson for most of the season, but as soon as Quan starts picking up precursor trophies we’re going to wonder why we ever thought he was losing.
Agreed. I have to admit, I’m quite…surprised by the Gleeson win predictions. He got, like, second-best notices in the cast (maybe you could argue third-best after Condon, who was also received very well). I don’t see Gleeson winning without Farrell at all, the latter of whom is way more acclaimed and has the Volpi under his belt. I think I also agree that Banshees won’t go home empty-handed with this amount of acclaim, but I don’t see Gleeson being the award it takes home. His reviews just felt more…muted than expected?
The festivals are pretty much over (or almost over, as New York is wrapping up within the next week) and I still maintain this is probably Quan’s to lose and for all the reasons you said. The performance is there, the narrative is there, and he can easily be the acting recognition if they don’t go for Yeoh in Actress. He’s maybe also our critics leader. If Gleeson gains more momentum and wins awards over Quan, I’ll eat crow, but I think the latter has too much in his favor over Gleeson that I don’t think it’ll happen.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
October 6, 2022 at 6:35 pm #1205109406This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.October 6, 2022 at 6:45 pm #1205109415This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.October 6, 2022 at 7:24 pm #1205109464Can someone who has read the Babylon script please tell me if Tobey Maguire has a shot? Or does he have like a cameo?
I thought it would be fun to predict him and put him in my list but I am basing it on nothing. 😂
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