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Well, it sounds like Toby Maguire is the Bradley Cooper of the film, who was the Alfred Molina in Boogie Nights of Licorice Pizza, albeit a less succesful one than those two (from the sounds of it).
Out of spite I had Tobey Maguire in my Best Supporting Top 5 over Pitt. So… 👀
Frontrunners
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of InisherinNext in line
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
On the brink
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, BabylonStrong possibilities
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Brian Tyree Henry, CausewayPossibilities
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Tobey Maguire, BabylonLonger shots
Steven Yeun, Nope
Michael Ward, Empire of Light
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
John Boyega, The Woman King
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Mark Rylance, Bones & All
Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans
Zen McGrath, The Son
Mark Strong, Tar
Michael Stuhlbarg, Bones & AllTheoretical possibilities
Willem Dafoe, The Northman
Oscar Isaac, Armageddon Time
Ben Foster, Emancipation
Bill Murray or Tom Hanks, Asteroid City
Jacob Tremblay, White Bird: a Wonder Story
Ciaran Hinds, The WonderJudd Hirsch could get a surprise Oscar nod. Having seen the film it’s the kind of limited 2 scene role that tends to pop up every now & then. I don’t think the character was particularly remarkable but we know Oscar voters love nominating veterans in Supporting.
From Ke Huy Quan’s Variety Awards Circuit Podcast episode, quotes taken from 45:40 onwards, full interview from 31:12 to 50:53
For two and a half years, or the duration of the pandemic, I’ve done maybe 20 to 30 auditions, and I did not get one single job during this two and a half year period, I did not get one callback and I was miserable… I was on the verge of losing my health insurance and I said “Just please get me anything, any guest starring roles, in anything”. And [my agent] got me those auditions, I did not get those either, it was nothing. And I think there was even at a time when my agent was losing faith in me, I was losing faith in myself… [choked up] I was so nervous, and everything changed when our movie came out, everything changed… It validated, it gave me this huge validation that I can do this.
I even, at one point during the pandemic I even joked I said “Nobody wants to hire me except Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, Wong Kar-wai and the Daniels, nobody else!” And when our movie came out… and then one day I got a call from Kevin Feige telling me that he saw the movie and told me how much he loved the movie. And he asked me to join the MCU family on Loki Season 2 and then I went back and told the Daniels and Jonathan Wang, I said “Nobody wants to hire me except Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, the Daniels, Wong Kar-wai and now Kevin Feige”, which was an incredible feeling.2021 went by and I lost my health insurance, right before our movie came out, so that’s why I’ve been overwhelmed with emotions for the last six months, especially when reading some of the comments
On top of an already fantastic performance in a top Oscar contending film, imagine him giving this kind of speech once the televised awards start/at the actual Oscars themselves. Really rooting for him and the rest of the EEAAO team this awards season.
FYC Severance, Better Call Saul, Everything Everywhere All At Once in all categories
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Yeah, Ke Huy Quan is likely winning. ❤️ I feel like there is SO much love for him.
Jeff Sneider was the one that put it in my head that Brian Tyree Henry could win but IF he even gets nominated, I think for him (BTH) the nomination will be the victory. Obviously, it’s not a lock.
But even if he got in, I think Quan will be unstoppable.
Sliding over to the guys, here are the #SCAwards picks for Best Supporting Actor:
Paul Dano #TheFabelmans
Brendan Gleeson #TheBansheesOfInisherin
Brian Tyree Henry #Causeway
Ke Huy Quan #EverythingEverywhereAllAtOnce
Micheal Ward #EmpireOfLight pic.twitter.com/dfRnGuz2GW— Sunset Circle Awards (@SunsetAwards) November 21, 2022
I have a feeling Brian Tyree Henry is being nominated, he has a lot of goodwill from the critics.
I think Ke Huy Quan has to be frontrunner right now. Great narrative; great performance; likeable qualities.
Brendan Gleeson is right behind, though, and, although he probably won’t win – I expect him to be nominated everywhere.
Ben Wishaw is leaving me unconvinced. I’ve not seen the film yet, as it hasn’t come out in the UK, but I just sense Buckley & Foy are better than him and that his role isn’t show-y. Also there is the weirdness for nominating him when the film is meant to be about the female character, but whatever… I could see it happening. It just seems a very mild-mannered performance to me, based on the reviews.
Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch is interesting. I get the impression Hirsch is showier and more memorable, but Dano is in it for longer and has a better narrative. I don’t really see them both getting in, but anyway… This isn’t exactly The Irishman/The Favourite, where both performances are so inescapably good that you HAVE to nominate them both. And it’s not a Power Of The Dog/Three Billboards, where one is obviously better than the other, but the film is so good that you want to put both in. It’s even possible that neither get in here.
Barry Keoghan could get in. And I do think Banshees is a film that could get double nominations here. I can see it doing well like Three Billboards or Judas or Power Of The Dog. The only issue is that Rockwell and Kaluuya won and that Smit-McPhee was definitely the frontrunner. I don’t really see Gleeson ending up as frontrunner. It could happen, but not sure.
Brad Pitt is someone who I still think could happen. I want to point out that the reason I don’t think a lot of those Twitter reactions are mentioning him is because of his controversies, but, watching the trailers and reading the reactions that actually DO mention him, I reckon he’s the film’s actual standout and delivers a similar turn to Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with an element of Burt Reynolds’ portrayal of the p**n director in Boogie Nights thrown in for good measure. That’s a performance that, realistically, were it not for the controversy around him, could have scored him a second Oscar win, if Babylon was strong enough. It’ll have to remain to be seen how extensive these controversies become, but I don’t think the critics will be riding on his coattails for now, especially as a lot of these guys are petrified of the Twitter crowd. Of course, I could see a situation where he gets Johnny Depp’d, but that could be a way off.
Eddie Redmayne entirely strikes me as someone who gets in at some precursors, but misses the real thing. Like a Golden Globe + Sag combo, perhaps, like Ben Affleck from last year. Why is this? Well, I don’t see Good Nurse getting into Picture. It’s a well-done performance, but, personally, I don’t think I’d nominate it here.
Bryan Tyree Henry seems like a critics thing to me, but I’d like him to get in. Mark Rylance does, too, and I’d love for him to get in, also.
I reckon, by some tragic fate, that Tom Hanks is more likely to get in for Elvis.
I, also, wouldn’t rule out Miles Teller or Ralph Fiennes, thanks to their film’s box offices and overall goodwill for both actors.
I’m also not 100% ruling out Ashton Sanders or Stanley Tucci to get in here.
Michael Ward seems unlikely to me, given he’s a complete newcomer and his film has basically fallen over and doesn’t seem to be getting up.
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Paul Dano OR Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
- Brad Pitt – Babylon
- Ben Wishaw – Women Talking
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
- Tom Hanks – Elvis
- Bryan Tyree Henry – Causeway
- Mark Rylance – Bones & All
- Miles Teller – Top Gun: Maverick
- Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
- Ashton Sanders/Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance With Somebody
- Harry Melling – The Pale Blue Eye
- Michael Ward – Empire Of Light
Brendan Gleeson
Ke Huy Quan
Ben Whishaw
Paul Dano
Barry KeoghanDropping Hirsch…he has little screen time and it’s not the impressive either.
I think Ke Huy Quan has to be frontrunner right now. Great narrative; great performance; likeable qualities. Brendan Gleeson is right behind, though, and, although he probably won’t win – I expect him to be nominated everywhere. Ben Wishaw is leaving me unconvinced. I’ve not seen the film yet, as it hasn’t come out in the UK, but I just sense Buckley & Foy are better than him and that his role isn’t show-y. Also there is the weirdness for nominating him when the film is meant to be about the female character, but whatever… I could see it happening. It just seems a very mild-mannered performance to me, based on the reviews. Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch is interesting. I get the impression Hirsch is showier and more memorable, but Dano is in it for longer and has a better narrative. I don’t really see them both getting in, but anyway… This isn’t exactly The Irishman/The Favourite, where both performances are so inescapably good that you HAVE to nominate them both. And it’s not a Power Of The Dog/Three Billboards, where one is obviously better than the other, but the film is so good that you want to put both in. It’s even possible that neither get in here. Barry Keoghan could get in. And I do think Banshees is a film that could get double nominations here. I can see it doing well like Three Billboards or Judas or Power Of The Dog. The only issue is that Rockwell and Kaluuya won and that Smit-McPhee was definitely the frontrunner. I don’t really see Gleeson ending up as frontrunner. It could happen, but not sure. Brad Pitt is someone who I still think could happen. I want to point out that the reason I don’t think a lot of those Twitter reactions are mentioning him is because of his controversies, but, watching the trailers and reading the reactions that actually DO mention him, I reckon he’s the film’s actual standout and delivers a similar turn to Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, with an element of Burt Reynolds’ portrayal of the p**n director in Boogie Nights thrown in for good measure. That’s a performance that, realistically, were it not for the controversy around him, could have scored him a second Oscar win, if Babylon was strong enough. It’ll have to remain to be seen how extensive these controversies become, but I don’t think the critics will be riding on his coattails for now, especially as a lot of these guys are petrified of the Twitter crowd. Of course, I could see a situation where he gets Johnny Depp’d, but that could be a way off. Eddie Redmayne entirely strikes me as someone who gets in at some precursors, but misses the real thing. Like a Golden Globe + Sag combo, perhaps, like Ben Affleck from last year. Why is this? Well, I don’t see Good Nurse getting into Picture. It’s a well-done performance, but, personally, I don’t think I’d nominate it here. Bryan Tyree Henry seems like a critics thing to me, but I’d like him to get in. Mark Rylance does, too, and I’d love for him to get in, also. I reckon, by some tragic fate, that Tom Hanks is more likely to get in for Elvis. I, also, wouldn’t rule out Miles Teller or Ralph Fiennes, thanks to their film’s box offices and overall goodwill for both actors. I’m also not 100% ruling out Ashton Sanders or Stanley Tucci to get in here. Michael Ward seems unlikely to me, given he’s a complete newcomer and his film has basically fallen over and doesn’t seem to be getting up.
- Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Paul Dano OR Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
- Brad Pitt – Babylon
- Ben Wishaw – Women Talking
- Barry Keoghan – The Banshees Of Inisherin
- Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse
- Tom Hanks – Elvis
- Bryan Tyree Henry – Causeway
- Mark Rylance – Bones & All
- Miles Teller – Top Gun: Maverick
- Ralph Fiennes – The Menu
- Ashton Sanders/Stanley Tucci – I Wanna Dance With Somebody
- Harry Melling – The Pale Blue Eye
- Michael Ward – Empire Of Light
The Menu is doing well at the box office?
Pre-Thanksgiving Predictions:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway6. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
7. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
8. Brad Pitt, Babylon
9. Don Cheadle, White Noise
10. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon TimeJosh oconnor in aisha is sooooo good. Love him
A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.
~ MYSTIC
I’m really confused by all the Ke Huy Quan predictions here. I walked out of Everything Everywhere without even really remembering his character. What was so Oscar-worthy about this performance? Michelle was awesome, but I’m just baffled by the way everyone is gravitating towards Ke Huy to win. I think Brendan Gleeson has a far better chance.
I’m really confused by all the Ke Huy Quan predictions here. I walked out of Everything Everywhere without even really remembering his character. What was so Oscar-worthy about this performance? Michelle was awesome, but I’m just baffled by the way everyone is gravitating towards Ke Huy to win. I think Brendan Gleeson has a far better chance.
One thing that sticked to me the most is his line regarding, “…this is how I fight.” That line speaks to me on a personal level; he’s kind of like the emotional revelation of the movie, and he as well is the key to Michelle’s character journey and the film’s thesis. Not sure how much of that is due to the writing, but I guess you need talent to bring out something that was just written on a piece of paper. I also find it impressive how he portrays different versions of Waymon; each version feels believable as people living different kind of lives, from the way they talk, move, and their presence. He’s currently my favourite contender in supporting actor, but I am not sure if that will stay the same once I get to see Banshees.
EDIT:
In short, I think what Michelle managed to accomplish in the movie (in terms of portrayal and emotional truth of the character), Quan’s accomplishment is comparable, and he did that with less screentime.
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