October 15, 2022 at 4:24 am #1205121431
if any movie will have the veterans making it over the young one is the whale and she said because those movies are what older members love , EEAO and WT are more on younger sides of the academyOctober 15, 2022 at 5:16 am #1205121443
I can totally see the bigger name Curtis getting in over Hsu. The Academy won’t care of any “backlash.”October 15, 2022 at 5:24 am #1205121454This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.October 15, 2022 at 6:11 am #1205121479
The only reason he is predicting Jamie Lee Curtis is because Halloween is getting released right now and he will get clicks and people will talk about it.October 15, 2022 at 6:17 am #1205121485
Comparing JLC to Judy Dench is hilarious. Love JLC but she’s not an awards darling in any way.October 15, 2022 at 6:44 am #1205121504
As people have already mentioned, JLC is no Dench. She is not getting in just by plain Academy passion, she needs the precursors. I could definitely see her getting in at the Globes given her great history there and maybeee SAG, but I still have trouble seeing her edging out Hsu in the end, unless one of the Women Talking contenders somehow stumbles during the season and/or the EEAAO team decides to focus their campaign in this category mainly on Curtis capitalizing on her current buzz.October 15, 2022 at 7:09 am #1205121528This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.October 15, 2022 at 7:18 am #1205121538
I think what’s never really mentioned about Balfe and Dench was how easy it was for the latter to usurp the former because of how thin Balfe’s passion was running. She heavily under-performed with critics groups not even managing to get a London Film Critics Circle nomination (in spite of the film being one of the biggest British films of the year and actually getting a best film nod there unlike with say the BIFAs) and barely even being 6th in the Metacritic aggregate (compared to the moderate performances of both Jessica Chastain and Will Smith who were both 3rd). When they were both nominated at AACTA together Dench ended up prevailing over her.
Ariana DeBose gave the most acclaimed supporting actress performance of the year, Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis were overdue industry veterans in top tier Best Picture contenders and Jessie Buckley was a rising star with swathes of goodwill who finally found herself in a contender visible and strong enough for her to get nominated. There was ultimately only one slot left for Balfe, Dench and Negga. Negga, whilst having immense passion, suffered from her film’s lack of overall awards visibility (she would have been its lone nominee which is somewhat of a rarity in this category). And thus there was only one slot left for Balfe and Dench and the limitations to the former’s passion (as well as the fact that many considered her to be a lead in the film) and the sentimentality behind the latter resulted in the switcheroo.
Now we could of course have a similar situation this year where we have a consensus top 3 in Foy, Buckley and Condon followed by an overdue performer in a contending film (Chau? Smart? Hoss?) which ends up leaving one (or even no) slot for the Everything Everywhere All at Once women. Likewise we could end up with a situation where Hsu ends up under-performing with the critics, both her and Curtis end up getting in at the winter awards together and then the latter is the one who ends up getting in due to career goodwill. But I actually think that whilst Curtis is the very well respected (and iconic) veteran and Hsu is the breakout star like Dench and Balfe were that the situations are somewhat reversed. Whilst Curtis does have a hell of a lot of goodwill (and there are people who do quite like her performance) there’s something about her part in this race that feels very, for the lack of a better word, pundity. There no doubt is passion for her performance but just like Balfe last year it doesn’t feel so raw. Hsu on the other hand has one of the most emotionally resonant scenes of the film just like Dench did with Belfast‘s closing scene.
Personally speaking I wouldn’t mind if Curtis does get nominated because she was good in the film and she is overdue more recognition in general (I’d have nominated her for A Fish Called Wanda). I would be disappointed if she got in over so many other performances in what is a strong field in this category (especially that of her co-star Hsu’s for so many reasons) but the Oscars have delivered far more disappointing things (especially with the lineup in this category last year) so it wouldn’t be too much of a kick in the teeth for me. I guess if I was to say how I’d rank her performance personally out of all those I’ve seen in this category she’d probably be somewhere between 10th and 12th.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.October 15, 2022 at 8:29 am #1205121632
Margot Robbie, Babylon*
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Next in line
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
On the brink
Jean Smart, Babylon
Hong Chau, The Whale
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Zoe Kazan, She Said*
Nina Hoss, Tar
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Samantha Morton, She Said
Whoopi Goldberg, Till
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Rooney Mara, Women Talking*
Li Jun Li, Babylon
Laura Dern, The Son*
Greta Gerwig, White Noise*
Patricia Clarkson, She Said
Sheila Atim, The Woman King
Nicole Kidman, The Northman
Isabelle Huppert, Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
Charmaine Bingwa, Emancipation
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Vanessa Kirby, The Son
Julianne Nicholson, Blonde
Frances McDormand, Women Talking
Chloe Sevigny, Bones & All
Helen Mirren, White Bird: a Wonder Story
Sophia Okonedo, Raymond & Ray
Scarlett Johansson, Tilda Swinton, or Margot Robbie, Asteroid City
* Unless she goes leadOctober 15, 2022 at 10:51 am #1205121788
It will be very very disappointing if JLC gets in OVER Stephanie Hsu. Not only was JLC’s character very minor compared to Hsu’s, she was there mostly as a comedic relief. While JLC was really good, Hsu provides the movie’s main conflict while also being the heart of the story. Her performance is one of the many reasons this crazy story resonates with so many people. She is why this movie works so well.
If JLC gets in over her, it’s gonna reek of racism idkOctober 15, 2022 at 11:10 am #1205121796
they should both get in.October 15, 2022 at 2:30 pm #1205122108
The Dench comparisons make sense. Balfe gave the better performance but Judi is the bigger name. Same scenario with Hsu & JLC. It’s not implausible to believe Jamie can get in over Stephanie at the Oscars. She’s a household name with decades in the industry. Remember, it’s not always about who is the best.October 15, 2022 at 2:39 pm #1205122119
Dench > Balfe
Balfe’s performance felt too inauthentic. Dench’s nomination really felt like the acting branch evaluating the best performance in Belfast.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossOctober 15, 2022 at 2:43 pm #1205122121
if any movie gets the veteran is She said or the whale those are melodramas that older members love , the new members will push Hsu more since EEAO appeal more to younger membersOctober 15, 2022 at 2:45 pm #1205122127This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Not now
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