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Allison Janney says hi!
Janney’s character was much more complex than Curtis’ though; the main character’s abusive mother is very different from the goofy IRS employee. Janney also had a lot more dramatic scenes, and she’s also an awards MAGNET in a way Curtis is not (2 Comedy Golden Globes do not equal 7 Emmys).
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
If awards bodies really want to nominate a silly goofy performance, they should look no further than Rachel Sennott. Yeah her character is annoying, but it’s been a while since I’ve seen a comedic performance where literally every single line landed. The definition of “understood the assignment”
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
I don’t know if anyone has pointed this out but recently we’ve usually had someone in this category who makes it in at the Globes and SAG but misses at the Oscars: 2022: Caitriona Balfe and Ruth Negga 2021: Helena Zengel 2020: Jennifer Lopez 2019: No one 2018: Hong Chau 2017: No one 2016: Helen Mirren I’m expecting Carey Mulligan to continue this trend this year and get in at SAG but get snubbed at the Oscars but if there’s a second person who joins her, like in this category last year, who would it be?
I completely forgot about Mirren’s run with Trumbo! This list really highlights how unusual Balfe’s snub was. Looking back, the others have more in common (films that underperformed or only had a potential nom in this category).
The only other options in my mind are Bassett and Curtis, and I still think it’s possible that Curtis ends up getting Balfe’d by Hsu. It seems like Hsu’s hype has a lot of room to grow while Curtis’s can only level out from here. Getting AACTA is a boost for her. AACTA was the only place Dench showed up alongside Balfe last year, so it’s a good sign that Hsu got this when they had other options like de Leon.
Curtis’ situation is so hard because my instinct is to compare her to Dornan (where the stronger, more emotionally affecting performance did eventually come out on top)… but Balfe lost out to Dench for the same damn movie in a complete reversal.
At the end of the day though, we’ve seen that the Academy has more nuanced taste than the precursors, more often than not. Maybe it’s personal bias because I think Curtis getting awards attention for this is ultimate big-name celebrity kowtowing, but I have faith they’ll have enough sense to leave her out, especially when there’s an obviously superior option right there in the category.
FYC: The Bear (Ayo Edebiri) Industry (Marisa Abela) OMITB (Jayne Houdyshell) Physical (Rose Byrne) WWDITS (Natasia Demetriou)
Curtis’ situation is so hard because my instinct is to compare her to Dornan (where the stronger, more emotionally affecting performance did eventually come out on top)… but Balfe lost out to Dench for the same damn movie in a complete reversal. At the end of the day though, we’ve seen that the Academy has more nuanced taste than the precursors, more often than not. Maybe it’s personal bias because I think Curtis getting awards attention for this is ultimate big-name celebrity kowtowing, but I have faith they’ll have enough sense to leave her out, especially when there’s an obviously superior option right there in the category.
Both can make it in. It’s already happened at AACTA and Critics Choice. Hsu shouldn’t have gotten in at AACTA, but she did.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossSAG predictions
Angela Bassett – Black Panther
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Janelle Monae – Glass Onion
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At OnceMonae can happen because Glass Onion is a BP contender, but Bassett feels like Jennifer Lopez (although AB has more things going for her) to me. I think people are spamming her in lists due to her name and hopedicting, and it can work for a while (at SAG), but when it’s all done the Academy will probably pick someone else.
And I have to say, with the way Elvis is growing… 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡 An australian actress who will probably win AACTA could show up here.
I don’t know if anyone has pointed this out but recently we’ve usually had someone in this category who makes it in at the Globes and SAG but misses at the Oscars:
2022: Caitriona Balfe and Ruth Negga
2021: Helena Zengel
2020: Jennifer Lopez
2019: No one
2018: Hong Chau
2017: No one
2016: Helen MirrenI’m expecting Carey Mulligan to continue this trend this year and get in at SAG but get snubbed at the Oscars but if there’s a second person who joins her, like in this category last year, who would it be?
I don’t see Mulligan getting in at SAG. Does anyone have a sense of SAG’s record on accepting the category fraud placements that studios promote? I recall that Daniel Kaluuya won SAG in the Supporting Actor category for Judas and the Black Messiah, but other than that, off the top of my head I can’t recall other category frauded nominees (or winners) at SAG.
I don’t see Mulligan getting in at SAG. Does anyone have a sense of SAG’s record on accepting the category fraud placements that studios promote? I recall that Daniel Kaluuya won SAG in the Supporting Actor category for Judas and the Black Messiah, but other than that, off the top of my head I can’t recall other category frauded nominees (or winners) at SAG.
Zengel herself was category fraud because she was a child actor. She’s definitely a lead.
Depending on who you ask, Jennifer Lopez is also lead in Hustlers.FYC:
The HBO darlings everywhere (The Last of Us, Succession, The White Lotus, Perry Mason, White House Plumbers, Love & Death);
The Apple gang (Bad Sisters, Slow Horses, Shrinking, Ted Lasso, Black Bird);
Poker Face, The Great, The Bear, Evil (especially Katja Herbers) and The Good Fight.Please! These gays, they're trying to murder me!
Variety updated their Best Supporting Actress predictions:
1. Angela Bassett
2. Jamie Lee Curtis
3. Jessie Buckley
4. Kerry Condon
5. Stephanie Hsu6. Carey Mulligan
7. Dolly De Leon
8. Janelle Monáe
9. Nina Hoss
10. Hong ChauI don’t see Mulligan getting in at SAG. Does anyone have a sense of SAG’s record on accepting the category fraud placements that studios promote? I recall that Daniel Kaluuya won SAG in the Supporting Actor category for Judas and the Black Messiah, but other than that, off the top of my head I can’t recall other category frauded nominees (or winners) at SAG.
The Favourite ladies could be considered category fraud alongside Viola Davis’ previous nominations. I feel like there’s a lot of more.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.
FYC:
Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Decision to Leave
Best Director: Park Chan-Wook Todd Field
Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Best Actor: Colin Farrell
Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett, Tang Wei
Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina HossI don’t see Mulligan getting in at SAG. Does anyone have a sense of SAG’s record on accepting the category fraud placements that studios promote? I recall that Daniel Kaluuya won SAG in the Supporting Actor category for Judas and the Black Messiah, but other than that, off the top of my head I can’t recall other category frauded nominees (or winners) at SAG.
I don’t believe they’ve ever rejected any category frauds? Emma Stone, Rooney Mara and Rachel Weisz were all nominated in that category and Alicia Vikander won for The Danish Girl.
I have Mulligan in at SAG purely because they disproportionately favour films and television shows focused around journalists more than other bodies (The Morning Show received 4 nominations there last year and only repeated 2 of those at the Emmys, Bombshell did the same at the Oscars) and with her Globe nod I think there’s enough precedence for her to repeat there. I don’t have her getting into my BAFTA or Oscar predictions though and I don’t have She Said in my ensemble predictions at SAG so she could very well just be another Annette Bening in The Report and just get a Globe nod and nothing else.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
I have Mulligan in at SAG purely because they disproportionately favour films and television shows focused around journalists more than other bodies (The Morning Show received 4 nominations there last year and only repeated 2 of those at the Emmys, Bombshell did the same at the Oscars) and with her Globe nod I think there’s enough precedence for her to repeat there.
Maybe, but I note that neither Streep nor Hanks received SAG nominations for The Post. I’m just unsure how much the fact that those films and movies centered around journalism had to do with actors from those movies or shows receiving SAG nominations.
Important to note, I think, is that both The Morning Show, Bombshell and Don’t Look Up are TV Journalist while The Post, The Report and She Said are newspapers journalist. Even Spotlight, the SAG Ensamble Winner that year, did better in individual acting nominations at the Academy than at the SAG (2 vs 1).
I don’t think it’s that deep lol
I mean, is probably just the SAG been also the union for all TV, and TV Journalist is “closer” to Hollywood (and they love all things Hollywood), but it’s fun to over-analyze.
Maybe, but I note that neither Streep nor Hanks received SAG nominations for The Post. I’m just unsure how much the fact that those films and movies centered around journalism had to do with actors from those movies or shows receiving SAG nominations.
I think it’s the broadening of the body to not only encompass actors but also broadcast journalists and presenters who are members of AFTRA that has led me to predict Mulligan there. I think there’s a certain type of appeal amongst that particular group of voters when they see films that explore fields they’re familiar with in their day to day and work in.
The counter-argument around She Said, The Post and The Report all being movies focused on newspaper journalists whilst The Morning Show, Bombshell and Don’t Look Up are all projects focused on broadcast journalists is a strong one though. But I think unlike those movies the subject matter is something that particular group of voters will feel more impacted by seeing its industry connection and how recent the events of the movie are in living memory. Likewise unlike The Post, which was the annual late-breaking movie that under-performs with the guild but bounces back at the Oscars, She Said is the earlier releasing also-ran movie that members of the committee will have probably had a chance to watch by now. It is more like the Victoria and Abdul/Mary Queen of Scots/The Big Sick of this season.
FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.
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