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Predictions for next year
Original screenplay
EEAO (winner )
The fablemans
Babylon
Bardo
Decision to leave
Adapted screenplay
Women talking
The son (winner )
Killers of flowers moon
Next goals wins
White noise
Where I’m at currently:
Original:
- Babylon
- Cha Cha Real Smooth
- The Fabelmans
- Nope
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
Adapted:
- The Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Killer
- She Said
- The Son
- Women Talking
Letterboxd: Brayfers
!EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE!
- SEVEN OSCARS
- BEST PICTURE
- Michelle Yeoh, Best Actress
- Ke Huy Quan, Best Supporting Actor
- Jamie Lee Curtis, Best Supporting Actress
- Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Best Director & Best Original Screenplay
- Paul Rogers, Best Film EditingFYC (TV):
- Abbott Elementary
- House of the Dragon
- The White Lotus
- The Last of UsBest Adapted Screenplay
1. Women Talking
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Son
4. White Noise
5. She SaidBest Original Screenplay
1. The Fabelmans
2. Empire of Light
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Decision To Leave
5. Cha Cha Real SmoothOriginal Screenplay
1. Sam Mendes for Empire of Light
2. Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans
3. Damien Chazelle for Babylon
4. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. James Gray for Armageddon Time6. Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Park Chan-wook and Jeong Seo-kyeong for Decision to Leave
8. Cooper Raiff for Cha Cha Real Smooth
9. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for The Lost King
10. Seth Reiss and Will Tracy for The MenuAdapted Screenplay
1. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller for The Son
2. Eric Roth for Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Noah Baumbach for White Noise
4. Sarah Polley for Women Talking
5. Tony McNamara for Poor Things6. Rebecca Lenkiewicz for She Said
7. Iain Morris and Taika Waititi for Next Goal Wins
8. Andrew Kevin Walker for The Killer
9. Krysty Wilson-Cairns for The Good Nurse
10. Rian Johnson for Knives Out 2Solidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!
Predictions for next year
Original screenplay
EEAO (winner )
The fablemans
Babylon
Bardo
Decision to leave
Adapted screenplay
Women talking
The son (winner )
Killers of flowers moon
Next goals wins
White noise
That Kushner/Spielberg tandem will be hard to beat. Babylon is right there too
I hope you’re right about EEAAO. Wouldn’t hurt Michelle.The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteoriginal will be such a bloodbath this season .., and adapted is shaping up to be the leaner race, i’m predicting atm
Adapted:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. She Said
3. The Son
4. Poor Things
5. A Man Called Otto
6. Living
7. Bones & All
8. The Stars at Noon
9. Women Talking
10. White NoiseOriginal:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Empire of Light
4. Thirteen Lives
5. Showing Up
6. Till
7. Broker
8. Rustin
9. Everything Everywhere All at Once
10. TarFYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I’m intrigued to know your reasoning behind having She Said above Women Talking when a lot of us on this forum believe it’s the other way round.
Narcissism – I’m sensing that voters are going to be more inclined to watch a film about a horrific true-life drama that unfolded against a Hollywood backdrop than a mortifying fictionalized drama set against a religious backdrop, all political aspects and strength of content being equal. In fact, I’m ready for the think pieces not only comparing She Said and Women Talking, but She Said and Babylon in terms of power dynamics, sexual politics and toxic masculinity. We have no idea how either film will ultimately be structured, so considering all the unknowns i’m going with my gut for now.
And then, strategy: It’s clear She Said will be Universal’s No. 2 priority after Spielberg, benefiting from a major year-end marketing campaign, while MGM/UA I feel will end up finding more “real-life-drama” traction with Ron Howard’s Thirteen Lives and Chinonye Chukwu’s Till than with Women Talking, despite its own powerhouse acting names and the involvement of the supremely talented Sarah Polley.
For added intrigue: Brad Pitt’s company Plan B is backing She Said and Women Talking, offering yet another facet of the tendency to compare their prospects.
And as always i’m keeping an eye on how all of these films (Women Talking, She Said, Till, Thirteen Lives, Babylon) and others will be handled during the fest segment of the season – we’ll get some clues then that we sorely lack now.
FYC
Best Picture: "Aftersun" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
Best Director: Charlotte Wellls; Luca Guadagnino
Best Actress: Frankie Corio; Taylor Russell
Best Actor: Paul Mescal; Timothee Chalamet
Best Supporting Actress: Chloe Sevigny
Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
Best Original Screenplay: Charlotte Wells
Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganichoriginal will be such a bloodbath this season .., and adapted is shaping up to be the leaner race, i’m predicting atm Adapted: 1. Killers of the Flower Moon 2. She Said 3. The Son 4. Poor Things 5. A Man Called Otto 6. Living 7. Bones & All 8. The Stars at Noon 9. Women Talking 10. White Noise Original: 1. The Fabelmans 2. Babylon 3. Empire of Light 4. Thirteen Lives 5. Showing Up 6. Till 7. Broker 8. Rustin 9. Everything Everywhere All at Once 10. Tar
Adapted is the stacked one I really think it is the most stacked category I could see both critics and industry spreading between them
EEAO should be higher
Hoping The Whale makes it in Adapted and Crimes in original for Cronenberg.
My favorite categories.The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whitean intresting stat i saw on twitter since 2013 the screenplay winners were written by people who haven’t won any oscar for any category
some other stats :
11/11 of original screenplay winners were written by directors in the last 11 years
7/11 of adapted screenplay winners were written by the director ( Call me by your name , argo , imitation game , 12 years a slave are exceptions )
Early Screenplay predictions, May update;
Original Screenplay:
1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Decision to Leave
5. Empire of Light6. Banshees of Insherin
7. TAR
8. Don’t Worry, Darling
9. Thirteen Lives
10. The MenuAdapted Screenplay:
1. The Son
2. Women Talking
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. She Said
5. White Noise6. The Whale
7. Poor Things
8. Avatar: The Way of the Water
9. Living
10. Bones & AllMy May Predictions:
Adapted Screenplay
1. She Said
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Son
4. Next Goal Wins
5. Women Talking6. Poor Things
7. The Whale
8. White Noise
9. The Killer
10. A Man Called OttoOriginal Screenplay
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Babylon
4. Rustin
5. Bardo6. The Banshees of Inisherin
7. Empire of Light
8. Decision to Leave
9. Don’t Worry Darling
10. Cha Cha Real SmoothOriginal Screenplay –
1. The Fabelmans
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Babylon
4. Empire of Light
5. Decision to Leave6. The Banshees of Insherin
7. Don’t Worry Darling
8. Triangle of Sadness
9. TAR
10. Cha Cha Real SmoothAdapted Screenplay-
1. The Son
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. She Said
4. Women Talking
5. Poor Things6. White Noise
7. The Whale
8. Avatar: The Way of the Water
9. Bones & All
10. Living
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