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I actually think Top Gun is taking adapted. Aside from AQOTWF (I just don’t see them rewarding a foreign language film here unless it becomes a serious threat for best picture) it is the most broadly nominated movie in the category by far, and I think voters are going to want to give it SOMETHING atl, “prestigious”, especially since Avatar won’t be winning anything big.
Women Talking is definitely it’s biggest competition, but with it underperforming so significantly I just struggle to see it being able to actually win something when the whole membership is voting. Living I think has an outside shot mainly off respect for the writer, but feels to underseen to win. And again, I think they’re going to want to give Top Gun something from the “big” categories and it’s either screenplay or best picture (or of course both). With the best picture frontrunners dueling it out in original, the other screenplay race usually ends up going to the movie closest to the top in the category, which is TG.
ReplyCopy URLI actually think Top Gun is taking adapted. Aside from AQOTWF (I just don’t see them rewarding a foreign language film here unless it becomes a serious threat for best picture) it is the most broadly nominated movie in the category by far, and I think voters are going to want to give it SOMETHING atl, “prestigious”, especially since Avatar won’t be winning anything big. Women Talking is definitely it’s biggest competition, but with it underperforming so significantly I just struggle to see it being able to actually win something when the whole membership is voting. Living I think has an outside shot mainly off respect for the writer, but feels to underseen to win. And again, I think they’re going to want to give Top Gun something from the “big” categories and it’s either screenplay or best picture (or of course both). With the best picture frontrunners dueling it out in original, the other screenplay race usually ends up going to the movie closest to the top in the category, which is TG.
It misses BAFTA and didn’t win a single critics group even coda and green book managed to get all precursors and won either globe or BAFTA
ReplyCopy URLpersonal nominee rankings:
- Original:
- Everything Everywhere All At Once
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- TAR
- Triangle of Sadness
- The Fabelmans
- Adapted:
- Women Talking
- Glass Onion
- All Quiet On The Western Front
- Living
- Top Gun: Maverick
ReplyCopy URLLetterboxd: Brayfers
FYC (Film):
- Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, and Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
- Colin Farrell, Kerry Condon, and Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
- Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
- Danielle Deadwyler - TillFYC (TV):
- Severance
- Euphoria
- Abbott Elementary
- House of the Dragon
- The White LotusI actually think Top Gun is taking adapted. Aside from AQOTWF (I just don’t see them rewarding a foreign language film here unless it becomes a serious threat for best picture) it is the most broadly nominated movie in the category by far, and I think voters are going to want to give it SOMETHING atl, “prestigious”, especially since Avatar won’t be winning anything big. Women Talking is definitely it’s biggest competition, but with it underperforming so significantly I just struggle to see it being able to actually win something when the whole membership is voting. Living I think has an outside shot mainly off respect for the writer, but feels to underseen to win. And again, I think they’re going to want to give Top Gun something from the “big” categories and it’s either screenplay or best picture (or of course both). With the best picture frontrunners dueling it out in original, the other screenplay race usually ends up going to the movie closest to the top in the category, which is TG.
The thing is, will it win without any precursor though? It’s not winning BAFTA since it didn’t get nominated and I think it’s safe to say both Women Talking and Glass Onion are ahead of it at WGA. I just don’t see it. But could be wrong obviously.
ReplyCopy URLHuns, I don’t see the rationale behind Living winning just because the author is famous and has the Nobel Prize in Literature. Why would film academy voters rush to award a writer of books? He’s only done two screenplays for small indie feature films before this, according to Wikipedia.
It’s not a BP nominee, it’s basically The Two Popes but without the Supporting Actor nom. The Two Popes won nothing. I think people made the same mistake at the Emmys where people assumed that two of the directing winners were going to be famous people, but they went for two unknown directors (no shade, but unknown before their shows came out).
I still have Sarah Polley in first because her film got that BP nom, but Women Talking is WEAK because it only got the 2 noms. That opens the door for AQOTWF or TGM, the only other BP nominees. They’re both war/military films, different in that one’s anti-war and the other is pro-military propaganda, but I can imagine them splitting the vote, leading to Polley capturing it.
Should she win, Canadians will be ecstatic! We’ve watched her since she was a kid and it’s at least one thing we can be happy about.
Your bias is showing btw. I can tell you from experience that we’re very very relieved our neighbour’s have guns and planes and military equipment. Lol.
ReplyCopy URLThe Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteThey already did that for Talk to Her twenty years ago.
That is the one example and that was a HIGHLY specific case in which that win was as much about Almodovar the person as it was about the script for that movie. Almodovar was a respected auteur who’d already directed multiple oscar nominated films, he got in for both screenplay and director, and at the time had a big sympathy narrative after Spain DIDN’T choose Talk to Her as their submission. Literally none of that applies to AQOTWF – Berger doesn’t have nearly the same name recognition, there’s no narrative for him to win here, and they can easily reward him/AQOTWF in other places, including International Film where it’s the easy frontrunner. .
ReplyCopy URLThe thing is, will it win without any precursor though? It’s not winning BAFTA since it didn’t get nominated and I think it’s safe to say both Women Talking and Glass Onion are ahead of it at WGA. I just don’t see it. But could be wrong obviously.
I just feel like if I’ve learned anything over following the oscars through the last few years, it’s that anything can happen. Stats and precursors are very helpful indicators, but THE most important factor is following the buzz. CODA broke dozens of rules last year, but the buzz was deafening and CHANGED as the season went on. I think if the nominations had come out earlier and everyone had known that screenplay was basically Top Gun’s only chance for an ATL win, then the precursors might have played out differently. Oscar voters are just people and while they often do follow trends, they can also decide to do whatever the fuck they want and I just think a lot of them are going to look at their ballot and decide to vote for Top Gun.
ReplyCopy URLThat is the one example and that was a HIGHLY specific case in which that win was as much about Almodovar the person as it was about the script for that movie. Almodovar was a respected auteur who’d already directed multiple oscar nominated films, he got in for both screenplay and director, and at the time had a big sympathy narrative after Spain DIDN’T choose Talk to Her as their submission. Literally none of that applies to AQOTWF – Berger doesn’t have nearly the same name recognition, there’s no narrative for him to win here, and they can easily reward him/AQOTWF in other places, including International Film where it’s the easy frontrunner. .
The writing team has Remarque to base the sp on and I give them credit for having the courage to remake that masterpiece. The timing is right.
I’ve made it no secret which team I’m rooting for. LIVING.
Fat chance I know.ReplyCopy URLThe Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteI just feel like if I’ve learned anything over following the oscars through the last few years, it’s that anything can happen. Stats and precursors are very helpful indicators, but THE most important factor is following the buzz. CODA broke dozens of rules last year, but the buzz was deafening and CHANGED as the season went on. I think if the nominations had come out earlier and everyone had known that screenplay was basically Top Gun’s only chance for an ATL win, then the precursors might have played out differently. Oscar voters are just people and while they often do follow trends, they can also decide to do whatever the fuck they want and I just think a lot of them are going to look at their ballot and decide to vote for Top Gun.
Top gun is already winning editing and sound
ReplyCopy URLTop gun is already winning editing and sound
I know, and I want to be clear I’m totally aware it’s a longshot and I could be wrong, I just have this gut feeling that voters are not going to want the night to end with Top Gun winning only tech awards, and it’s biggest competitors in this category have so much going against them.
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