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I feel like Tár’s love could shift from Blanchett to Field. The Academy might want to finally award him. It helps that the film is top 5 (arguably top 3) in BP and EEAAO + Banshees could split. Plus, it would fit into the “social commentary” trend that this category usually favors. Ever since I saw many Academy members praising Field’s work, I couldn’t stop thinking about the possibility of him winning Director or Screenplay.
Tar is likely to win two Oscars, so aside from Blanchett, Field is next in line.
Tbh I find it very weird when some people write that Screenplay was TÁR’s biggest weakness when I found it to be really layered and captivating in more ways than one. The way it had so many allusions and some foreshadowing along with some dry humour.
Field has a higher chance of winning Director than Screenplay.
I love Tar’s screenplay but people can find it exhausting while there is a uniform appreciation for his direction.
As much as I appreciate most of the screenplays in both original and adapted I just watched ep3 of The Last of Us and if I could I’d vote for that.
Didn’t think I’d ever say that and sorry for the off medium.Still prefer Living and EEAAO. it’s too bad there can only be one winner since Banshees is incredible.
The Sunne in Splendour.
I prefer my roses whiteI just read that Paramount has withdrawn TOP GUN: MAVERICK from consideration in this year’s USC Scripter Awards, leaving GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO, LIVING, SHE SAID and WOMEN TALKING as the four film nominees. The tweet about the withdrawal was by someone on the Scripter Awards selection committee, and then someone else speculated that it was withdrawn because of a recently filed copyright infringement suit against Paramount and the film’s producers.
I wonder if TG:M’s script will be withdrawn from the Oscars, and even if it isn’t, whether this copyright suit will have an impact on its chances in Best Original Screenplay.
I just read that Paramount has withdrawn TOP GUN: MAVERICK from consideration in this year’s USC Scripter Awards, leaving GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO, LIVING, SHE SAID and WOMEN TALKING as the four film nominees. The tweet about the withdrawal was by someone on the Scripter Awards selection committee, and then someone else speculated that it was withdrawn because of a recently filed copyright infringement suit against Paramount and the film’s producers.
If there was some ineligibility issue, surely it would’ve come up before now. I’m not sure, but this can’t be the first time that there was a copyright infringement suit filed against a screenplay nominee? Strange. If WGA follows suit, then maybe there’s something to this.
ETA: I looked into the THR article about the lawsuit, and the plaintiffs are the heirs of the author of the nonfiction magazine story that the original Top Gun was based on. Maybe others knew this already, but it’s my understanding that USC Scripter eligibility rules are more strict than AMPAS’s. Just being a sequel wouldn’t be enough to get nominated. The magazine article is the hook for the Scripter award.
This doesn’t seem like an issue that will come up anywhere else under less strict rules. Paramount definitely had some audacity even submitting it for Scripter lol. I assume they might just settle the lawsuit and this is part of it, since the dispute is about when Paramount’s rights over the article ended.
All Quiet vs Women Talking is a headscratcher. When was the voting period? After BAFTA the edge would go to the former but Women Talking has such a literate script and Women Talking was robbed of other nominations. All Quiet is foreign and it is rare for that to happen but it does every once in a while and All Quiet has nine nominations. I keep on changing my mind!
I think Banshees has to win at least one Oscar and just like Belfast last year this will be the category. I am hoping for it to win BP, Actor, Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress but it’s in second and third in those categories (and honestly I would vote for McDonagh in Directing but I think the Daniels will win there). I am just not entirely sure if EEAAO can get over the hurdle of being a sci-fi film for BP. Martin McDonagh’s being a playwright will help him I think to win the Original Screenplay Oscar.
My worry about Banshees winning Original Screenplay is that it has become clear that EEAAO has the potential to sweep. It’s a terrific screenplay so it’s not like other years where there were close races that imo went the wrong way and a poor screenplay was the winner. I still really would like for Martin McDonagh to win an Oscar for Banshees and EEAAO is imo a lock for Director and BP. I keep on remembering when I thought Boyhood would win in the same scenario as this year where it was clear that Birdman would win BP and Director and Birdman prevailed. I am really not sure which film would win, and while I will feel a slight disappointment if Banshees isn’t the winner that will be mitigated by EEAAO having a wildly inventive excellent screenplay. I have kept Banshees in my predictions – it is very likely second in BP and I doubt it will go home completely empty-handed – Kerry Condon could potentially win though so that is something to consider too.
I am going with Women Talking over All Quiet – this way they will reward one female director and make up for only giving Women Talking two Oscar nominations. But the screenplay for All Quiet is superb as well!
It’s funny how All Quiet has such a strong precursor for winning screenplay through BAFTA but a terrible precursor by winning NBR.
so if TOP gun wins wga will it be like don’t look up and borat 2 where the winner wasn’t eligible or it will pull an argo and imitation game
so if TOP gun wins wga will it be like don’t look up and borat 2 where the winner wasn’t eligible or it will pull an argo and imitation game
If Top Gun wins WGA then All Quiet’s winning the Oscar, which is a shame because it should be Women Talking.
FYC
Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at onceIt’s funny how All Quiet has such a strong precursor for winning screenplay through BAFTA but a terrible precursor by winning NBR.
For now, I’m sticking with Women Talking. I continue to think that All Quiet’s screenplay is one of the weakest aspects of the movie, and that the changes made from Remarque’s novel (and the novel’s first two film adaptations) weaken the current film version’s message and impact. I also think that All Quiet did far better at BAFTA than it will do at the Oscars, in part because the war in Ukraine has understandably had a bigger impact in Europe than in the U.S., where 77% of AMPAS voters reside.
For now, I’m sticking with Women Talking. I continue to think that All Quiet’s screenplay is one of the weakest aspects of the movie, and that the changes made from Remarque’s novel (and the novel’s first two film adaptations) weaken the current film version’s message and impact. I also think that All Quiet did far better at BAFTA than it will do at the Oscars, in part because the war in Ukraine has understandably had a bigger impact in Europe than in the U.S., where 77% of AMPAS voters reside.
green book won screenplay where it was its weak aspect all quiet might win after all because it has Board support
For now, I’m sticking with Women Talking. I continue to think that All Quiet’s screenplay is one of the weakest aspects of the movie, and that the changes made from Remarque’s novel (and the novel’s first two film adaptations) weaken the current film version’s message and impact. I also think that All Quiet did far better at BAFTA than it will do at the Oscars, in part because the war in Ukraine has understandably had a bigger impact in Europe than in the U.S., where 77% of AMPAS voters reside.
I agree. I think AMPAS is going to put a cap on this film’s potential wins for the reasons you mention, in addition to there still being a passion/appreciation divide that still seems to exist even after its showing with BAFTA. The Ukraine effect is way more compelling to me with Navalny in Documentary. I’m a little worried about Women Talking though. Managing to get in the BP lineup oddly doesn’t make me feel that much more secure in it winning.
The 2/5 overlap with BAFTA in this category is really interesting. At least the other 3 films are competing at WGA. Right now, the only way I think I default to All Quiet is if Glass Onion wins there and I don’t really see that happening. If Women Talking or (somehow) Maverick wins, it’ll be a tougher call.
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