2024 Early Oscar Predictions

[kat_ebbs Joined: Jun 10th, 2021 Topics: 29 Posts: 8448 View Predictions]

#1205356820

Riddle wrote:

Also, when was the last time an actress was nominated for Best Actress at the Oscars and the Emmy’s in the same competition year? I would venture a guess she’ll be a favorite at the Emmy’s for The Palace,

The Palace will definitely not be out this Emmy cycle.

[Babylonian Joined: Aug 16th, 2021 Topics: 8 Posts: 4015 View Predictions]

#1205356822

Barbra Please wrote:

Darling, Fassbender seems like an actor that will get his due soon.

FYC:

Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category

Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song

[HAL 9000 Joined: Aug 27th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 40 View Predictions]

#1205356848

Everybody forgets that Zendaya is a lead in Dune 2 ( She is equally billed with Chalamet and filmed for it for 6 months). Between this and her lead role in Challengers and general industry goodwill, there’s a good chance she gets nominated.

 

[christopherg Joined: Sep 9th, 2018 Topics: 0 Posts: 8 View Predictions]

#1205356856

Oppenheimer feels like a strange one. Is it a prestige drama or a summer spectacle? I’m interested to see if it finds an audience on the scale Nolan is used to.

Also, could 2024 finally be the year Thomas Newman wins for Best Score? He has Elemental, The Last Voyage of the Demeter and White Bird, the former feels like his best shot.  Is he due to score any of the early Oscar favourites?

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2342 View Predictions]

#1205356862

HAL 9000 wrote:

Everybody forgets that Zendaya is a lead in Dune 2 ( She is equally billed with Chalamet and filmed for it for 6 months). Between this and her lead role in Challengers and general industry goodwill, there’s a good chance she gets nominated.

Conceivably for Challengers but I’ll be extremely surprised if Dune 2 gets an acting nomination for anyone at all.

[montenegro Joined: Mar 12th, 2023 Topics: 0 Posts: 149 View Predictions]

#1205356870

HAL 9000 wrote:

Everybody forgets that Zendaya is a lead in Dune 2 ( She is equally billed with Chalamet and filmed for it for 6 months). Between this and her lead role in Challengers and general industry goodwill, there’s a good chance she gets nominated.

I am certain, that Zendaya will become the second African American actress to win Best Actress.

[Bonehead Joined: Jan 20th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 1698 View Predictions]

#1205356892

Rachel615 wrote:

I’ll be extremely surprised if Dune 2 gets an acting nomination for anyone at all.

I could see Christopher Walken getting the customary veteran nomination in supporting actor

[Rachel615 Joined: Sep 20th, 2018 Topics: 6 Posts: 2342 View Predictions]

#1205356922

Bonehead wrote:

I could see Christopher Walken getting the customary veteran nomination in supporting actor

Maybe, but there are so many others it could also go to, like Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson, or William Dafoe in Poor Things, which I suspect will be better “actor showcases.”

[Setia Yasmine Khalil Joined: Jan 14th, 2022 Topics: 1 Posts: 1709 View Predictions]

#1205356926

JV wrote:

Early (and probably wrong) thoughts on some of the (english language) movies that will be widely predicted in this early part of the race Dune: Part Two: Probably happening, but unless the acclaim suddenly changes to extremely positive I doubt it will perform any better than the first one in ATL categories. Past Lives: Overwhelming reactions from audiences and critics. Good release date for a movie that needs to be seen and appreciated to be a contender, and it will allow critics to spread the passion throughout June-December. Maybe a bit too small scale for Oscars, but we’ll see. Oppenheimer: Yeah, I don’t buy this one. Critics have never been high on Nolan (except for Dunkirk) movies and given the subject matter here (the timing!) I really, really, really doubt it will be different this time since Nolan’s writing isn’t the most sensible. Not really sure it will have a good box office either. I think it will perform like Interstellar. Barbie: It’s managing to create some sort of Joker-like buzz before the release. Critics love Greta so they will probably love this one, and it could be a box office hit too. Killers of the Flower Moon: It’s getting +10 nominations. Probably not winning anything, and Scorsese is not winning Director even though he will be widely predicted to do so. Come on, people, the Academy hasn’t been really that hot on some of these veteran directors when it comes to wins. Maestro: Film Twitter will orgasm over Bradley Cooper like they always do with movies with this type of subject matter. It will probably be Zoe Rose Bryant’s favorite movie of the year. Will the Academy buy it ? I don’t know. Maybe it’s too early for a Bernstein biopic. Rustin: Depends solely on how well liked it is. This project has a lot of things going for it but… That’s usually where the danger is. Poor Things: We need to see the movie to see what will happen, but that rating description doesn’t make me confident about it, but it’s Searchlight so… Unless it gets a mid reception, they will probably get the movie in. Blitz: So baity that it’s ridiculous, lol. could be another nom for Saoirse Ronan. But Apple will have Killers of the Flower Moon. What will they do about it ? It’s not confirmed for this year BTW The Color Purple: Good luck for the people working in this remake/adaptation Lee and Nyad: That’s two different movies and I put them together because they’re probably going to be Best Actress players with the potential to expand to other categories if they’re well received. I’m finding the Best Actress category rather empty, so that’s two strong contenders. Ferrari: No Priscilla: No Wes Anderson movies: No Napoleon: No Next Goal Wins: I mean, maybe ? That release date surprised me giving what the movie has gone through. The Killer/Magazine Dreams: I think Fassbender and Majors will get in, but the movies… The Holdovers: The Academy used to love him, but I seriously wonder if Downsizing completely broke him. I rolled my eyes while reading the premise The Bikeriders: 20th Century starring Butler and Comer, but it’s Jeff Nichols (one of my favorites) so it will probably be very experimental. May December: Just like Payne, Haynes is coming off a not well received movie. It’s about a married couple with an age gap. I wonder what could go wrong. Dumb Money: Now this is an interesting one… That release date, Sony Pictures, political satire, Craig Gillespie. Saltburn: We know almost nothing about except that Fennell is writing and directing. My wildcard Wonka: I think we should watch out for this one, really, as ridiculous as it sounds. That Paul King guy is REALLY GOOD at directing movies.

Lily gladstone could win supporting actress

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1776 View Predictions]

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HAL 9000 wrote:

Everybody forgets that Zendaya is a lead in Dune 2 ( She is equally billed with Chalamet and filmed for it for 6 months). Between this and her lead role in Challengers and general industry goodwill, there’s a good chance she gets nominated.

She has ZERO chance to be nominated in Lead. Read the book. I don’t care what billing she got, her character is not going to be equal to Chalamet’s because the story isn’t Chani’s journey. Chani supports Paul. It doesn’t matter whether she is in every scene he is or not, the nature of her role is supporting. His baby mama, follower and fighter. That’s it. Plus, Villeneuve moved a lot of characters from the first half of the book to the second movie. So if you expect Zendaya to be Blanchett in TAR or Yeoh in EEAAO, think again. Big parts of the movie that deal with Butler (Feyd Rautha) , Pugh (Irulan), Walken (Shadam IV) and Seydoux (Margot Fenring) don’t crossover with Chalamet and Zendaya for most of the running time. There’s also a big arc for Ferguson’s Jessica, Paul’s sister Alia has a major scene, etc. It’s a supporting role. I get that drumming up that she’s a lead is a nice marketing move but she’s not gonna happen in that category.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 246 Posts: 37646 View Predictions]

#1205356943

Riddle wrote:

I also question how Lee is going to land. Winslet is as talented an actress as we have, but a historical war drama-sort of biopic about a person that doesn’t have much of a footprint in your average cinema goer’s psyche seems like a hard sell to me. And regardless of the reviews, I think box office will need to be there.

What I’m more interested with this film is who is distributing it in the US because that can make all the difference. Over here it’s being distributed by Sky whose only Oscar nominated films were Promising Young Woman and The United States vs Billie Holiday (both of which were picked up at the last minute due to cinemas being closed in the UK and them needing to be released by a certain point here to qualify for the BAFTAs) and other than those two films they’ve just been picking up indies that would be too small to find an audience otherwise in the UK (like After Yang and Mass). I’m similarly curious with May December (which is also being distribute by Sky in the UK).

FYC: Better Call Saul, The English and The Good Fight in all categories including Emily Blunt, Bob Odenkirk, Christine Baranski and Rhea Seehorn.

[HAL 9000 Joined: Aug 27th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 40 View Predictions]

#1205356949

loudtoilet wrote:

She has ZERO chance to be nominated in Lead. Read the book. I don’t care what billing she got, her character is not going to be equal to Chalamet’s because the story isn’t Chani’s journey. Chani supports Paul. It doesn’t matter whether she is in every scene he is or not, the nature of her role is supporting. His baby mama, follower and fighter. That’s it. Plus, Villeneuve moved a lot of characters from the first half of the book to the second movie. So if you expect Zendaya to be Blanchett in TAR or Yeoh in EEAAO, think again. Big parts of the movie that deal with Butler (Feyd Rautha) , Pugh (Irulan), Walken (Shadam IV) and Seydoux (Margot Fenring) don’t crossover with Chalamet and Zendaya for most of the running time. There’s also a big arc for Ferguson’s Jessica, Paul’s sister Alia has a major scene, etc. It’s a supporting role. I get that drumming up that she’s a lead is a nice marketing move but she’s not gonna happen in that category.

 

Ferguson has like one water of life scene and then she doesn’t have anything else to do in Part 2. Same for Florence and Walken. Villeneuve has made it clear that the main focus of the second half will be Paul AND Chani’s journey/ “adventures” and that he changed it up to flesh Chani’s character for the movie unlike the bare minimum in the book (He even used her POV to start off Part 1 which was never in the book). Also, in the book, She has scenes where she deals with her child’s death and watching her lover pledge to marry another. Those scenes have more potential and are more powerful than  90% of the cast and these are just the ones from the book. We don’t know what more scenes Denis added. He even took a random character from the book called Sishkali and cast a woman (Souhelia yakoub) for it and she filmed for a long time for it. Even put Lady Margot (Lea Seydoux) front and centre over Count Fenring. Villeneuve’a treatment of Chani will be WILDLY different from the books, that’s for sure. Doesn’t guarantee a Zendaya nom, sure but between this and Challengers she will be in the conversation imo

 

[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 652 View Predictions]

#1205356951

Rachel615 wrote:

Maybe, but there are so many others it could also go to, like Samuel L. Jackson in The Piano Lesson, or William Dafoe in Poor Things, which I suspect will be better “actor showcases.”

Isn’t The Piano Lesson in pre-production and filming hasn’t even started yet? I don’t know why everyone’s predicting it for this season when all the signs I’m seeing point to it being a 2024 release. Or is there something I don’t know?

[loudtoilet Joined: Feb 19th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 1776 View Predictions]

#1205356953

HAL 9000 wrote:

Doesn’t guarantee a Zendaya nom, sure but between this and Challengers she will be in the conversation imo

Challengers is a textbook Lead role so she’ll be placed properly. Dune 2 is textbook supporting.You can beef up the screen time but you can’t rewrite it as her story or even shared story which it isn’t and shouldn’t be.

[DanC Joined: Jun 10th, 2020 Topics: 2 Posts: 481 View Predictions]

#1205356957

My First (Way Too Early) Oscars 2024 Predictions:

Picture

1. Dune Part 2 (WB)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
3. Oppenheimer (Universal)
4. Rustin (Netflix)
5. Poor Things (Searchlight)
6. Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)
7. The Color Purple (WB)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Saltburn (MGM / UA)
10. Asteroid City (Focus Features)

Director

1. Villeneuve (Dune Part 2)
2. Scorsese (KotFM)
3. Nolan (Oppenheimer)
4. Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Fennell (Saltburn)

Actor

1. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
2. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio (KotFM)
4. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
5. Jonathan Majors (Magazine Dreams)

Actress

1. Annette Benning (Nyad)
2. Fantasia (The Color Purple)
3. Emma Stone (Poor Things)
4. Regina King (Shirley)
5. Greta Lee (Past Lives)

Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)
2. Robert DeNiro (KotFM)
3. Jesse Plemmons (KotFM)
4. Glynn Turman (Rustin)
5. Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)

Supporting Actress

1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn)
3. Danielle Brookes (The Color Purple)
4. Julianne Moore (May-December)
5. Audra McDonald (Rustin)

Adapted Screenplay

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Poor Things
3. Oppenheimer
4. Next Goal Wins
5. Dune Part 2

Original Screenplay

1. Past Lives
2. Saltburn
3. Rustin
4. Asteroid City
5. Fair Play