December 20, 2017 at 11:08 pm #1202445745
The forum really needs to stop blocking my threads. Here we go again:
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
THE SHAPE OF WATER
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME – Luca Guadagnino
DUNKIRK – Christopher Nolan
I, TONYA – Craig Gillespie
LADY BIRD – Greta Gerwig
THE SHAPE OF WATER – Guillermo del Toro
CALL ME BY YOUR NAME – James Ivory
DUNKIRK – Christopher Nolan
GET OUT – Jordan Peele
LADY BIRD – Greta Gerwig
THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI – Martin McDonagh
Best Lead Actor:
Timothée Chalamet – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Daniel Day-Lewis – PHANTOM THREAD
Hugh Jackman – LOGAN
Daniel Kaluuya – GET OUT
Gary Oldman – DARKEST HOUR
Best Lead Actress:
Judi Dench – VICTORIA & ABDUL
Sally Hawkins – THE SHAPE OF WATER
Frances McDormand – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Margot Robbie – I, TONYA
Saoirse Ronan – LADY BIRD
Best Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe – THE FLORIDA PROJECT
Armie Hammer – CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
Tom Hardy – DUNKIRK
Ben Mendelsohn – DARKEST HOUR
Sam Rockwell – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Best Supporting Actress:
Mary J. Blige – MUDBOUND
Abbie Cornish – THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
Allison Janney – I, TONYA
Nicole Kidman – THE KILLING OF A SACRED DEER
Laurie Metcalf – LADY BIRD
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."December 20, 2017 at 11:10 pm #1202445746
I think that we need to start paying the ACCTA International Awards attention as we do with BAFTA. They also have a membership overlap with the academy and all of the voters work in the industry. Their overall record is spotty and there is a bias toward anything Australian, but they have been in tune with the Oscars in ways that other precursors have not been. For example, they called Michael Shannon last year, unlike SAG, BAFTA and the Globes. They nominated Morten Tyldum and Adam McKay in director after they were roundly snubbed by the critic groups, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes (and even BAFTA for the former). They awarded Birdman, unlike the Globes, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA.
So what do we gather from the nominations this year? First off, we need to discount the significance of nominations for anybody Australian: Craig Gillespie, Hugh Jackman, Margot Robbie, Ben Mendelsohn, Abbie Cornish and Nicole Kidman. Having said that, I like seeing Mendelsohn pick up a precursor nomination because I still have him in for the Oscars. And I like Gillespie getting some deserved recognition.
They really liked Dunkirk, even nominating its screenplay with only five slots. Looking at past director-driven Best Picture players, AACTA nominated La La Land and snubbed both The Revenant and Gravity, all consistent with the Oscars. They also nominated Tom Hardy after snubbing him for The Revenant (and over Mark Rylance, despite actually awarding him for Bridge of Spies, unlike many other precursors). Come to think of it, I could see BAFTA nominating Hardy to make up for their snub of him in The Revenant. Remember when they awarded Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle after they did not give it to her for Silver Linings Playbook? Does Hardy get in if that happens?
Get Out was snubbed in picture and director, yet got into the combined screenplay category and even got into actor over Denzel Washington, whom they nominated for both Fences and Flight. The Post was shut out. Maybe it was too late, but they nominated Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread.
Lady Bird, Call Me Your Name and Three Billboards each have five nominations, but Martin McDonagh missed director. As I said above, AACTA had the prescience to nominate Morten Tyldum and Adam McKay, so this snub might be significant. They chose Armie Hammer over Michael Stuhlbarg and this is after they chose Michael Shannon over Aaron Taylor-Johnson. The Shape of Water got picture, director, screenplay and actress, but no supporting.
"I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."December 21, 2017 at 12:56 am #1202445844
From their history the past 6 year, and looking if the eventual Oscar winner was nominated there
Picture – 5/6 (Moonlight wasn’t nominated here but showed up in supporting races)
Director – 6/6
Actor – 6/6
Actress – 6/6
Supporting Actor – 4/4
Supporting Actres – 4/4
Original Screenplay – 5/6 (Her wasn’t nominated at all, The Big Short was nominated only in suppprting here)
Adapted Screenplay – 4/6 (Moonlight/Big Short wasn’t nominated for screenplay here)
Guess the post won’t win picture or Meryl for actress lol and hopes to pull a Her at best.December 21, 2017 at 1:24 am #1202445856
Director – 6/6
Actor – 6/6
Actress – 6/6
Supporting Actor – 4/4
Supporting Actress – 4/4
Presuming these were typos because Ejiofor and Keaton won over McConaughey and Redmayne respectively, Blanchett won over Larson in 2015, Fassbender and Patel beat Leto and Ali, and only Arquette won here as well as Oscar for Supporting Actress. Also The Artist, Gravity and Birdman were the only films to presage their directing Oscar wins with a trophy here.December 21, 2017 at 1:36 am #1202445858
What are u talking about? I’m talking about the eventual Oscar winner just being nominated here, not the AACTA winner matching the Oscar. They all showed up here and I even wrote that on the first sentence.December 21, 2017 at 2:59 am #1202445881
While they may have made some key calls in my past, last year they didn’t even nominate Moonlight for Best Picture, Director, or even Screenplay, which is great news for Get Out, since that got a Screenplay nomination unlike Moonlight. Interestingly both critically-acclaimed film from a black writer/director.
HOWEVER, looking at their track record for previous years, I have to admit they have had quite the impressive track record in predicting the Oscars, and even made IMO superior picks on a few occasions, like giving Mad Max: Fury Road Picture and Director over Spotlight and The Revenant. Yes, of course I know the Australian bias helped, but still perfect calls in my book that deserve credit.
I also just noticed that in the category of Best Screenplay, there has almost always been 1 or even 2 nominees that has failed to make the cut with the Oscars, with the sole exception being the Birdman year. In every other year Hacksaw Ridge, Steve Jobs, Saving Mr. Banks, Inside Llewyn Davis all got snubbed by the Oscars after getting recognized by the AACTA International Awards. Those were the snubs when the category had just 5 nominees like it does today. In the year before that there were 6 Screenplay nominees and still only The Master ended up getting snubbed. The year before that there were 8 nominees and both We Need To Talk About Kevin and Melancholia got snubbed at the Oscars.
My point on that one is, historically is is very unlikely for all 5 Screenplay nominees to get nominated at the Oscars, in spite of the Oscars having 2 categories of 5 slots for Original and Adapted scripts. So, I believe Dunkirk will be the unlucky one left out, since this group in particular seemed to love the film an excessive amount, nominating Tom Hardy for having no character and no personality except having a mask over his face in a plane for 99% of his screentime. Either Three Billboards, Get Out, or Lady Bird could win Original Screenplay at the Oscars, while Call Me By Your Name winning Adapted feels like perhaps the biggest lock of the entire night.
What these awards tell me overall is that the SAG snubs for The Post were no fluke. Earlier today, I took out Christopher Nolan in Directing for Steven Spielberg, and now I’m putting Nolan back in. It has done at least the bare minimum everywhere it needed to, getting in for SAG Stunt Ensemble (which it will inevitably win), getting the only 3 nods it had a realistic chance at getting at the Golden Globes, and doing solid with the Critics Choice Awards nominations. Dunkirk is in for Picture and even Directing. I think the Directing lineup at the Oscars will be almost exactly the same as here, with only Craig Gillespie for I, Tonya failing to make the cut with the Oscars Directing branch, being replaced by Jordan Peele for Get Out.December 21, 2017 at 4:26 am #1202445909
I just checked how the AACTA International Awards acting categories have corresponded to Oscar acting nominees, and last year a whopping 17 out of the 20 nominees at these awards went on to become Oscar nominees. They got all 5 Supporting Actor nominees! However, the year before that they only nominated 13 of the eventual 20 Oscar acting nominees, so last year might have been a fluke. Then again, the year before that these awards matched up 16 for 20 of the eventual Oscars acting nominees.
Here are the actors AACTA International nominated I know for sure will not make the cut with the Oscars:
Tom Hardy “Dunkirk”
Abbie Cornish “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Nicole Kidman (Evidence of that Australian bias) “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
Hugh Jackman (Should’ve been a contender, dammit) “Logan”
That’s 4 definitely wrong, which would mean they would get the same record of correlation to the Oscar acting nominees (16/20) as the year of Birdman, not that long ago.
I think Ben Mendelsohn got in because of Australian bias though, and I don’t see enough overall passion for Darkest Hour for it to land a Supporting nod on the coattails of Gary Oldman.
I’m also convinced that Judi Dench won’t get an Oscar nod for Victoria and Abdul due to Streep just barely edging her out simply due to the Oscars nominating her for seemingly everything she does. Plus, Dench’s film itself has been less acclaimed than Streep’s The Post.
I predict the contenders the AACTV Awards snubbed that will still end up Oscar nominated are:
1. Franco replacing Jackman in Lead Actor
2. Streep replacing Dench in Lead Actress
3. Jenkins and Plummer replacing Mendelsohn and Hardy in Supporting Actor
4. Chau and Hunter replacing Kidman and Cornish in Supporting Actress
That is 14 out of 20 eventual Oscar nominees correctly called. Based on their recent history, that sounds about right to me. 🙂December 21, 2017 at 5:36 am #1202445940
Kind of silly that they have some “international awards” just so they can get attention and get into the predictions game. They’re just repeating everybody else with a token australian included here and there. Must be such a relief when an australian is actually in the race and they don’t waste space like with Abbie Cornish. And don’t even get me started on films being rewarded for the normal awards but then also a the international ones…December 21, 2017 at 6:06 am #1202445972
I wouldn’t really give them too much weight this year. Usually when there is a big Australian movie contending at the Oscars, AACTA are more likely to correlate well with the Academy, but when there isn’t an outstanding Australian film in the mix they just over-compensate with more Australian nominations. However they are pretty good predictors for what the Australian contingent of AMPAS votes for. Of the Australian nominees I would say Robbie is the only one that will match up with the Oscars. She’ll probably win here anyway.December 21, 2017 at 10:36 pm #1202446507
It would be great if they had TV awards as well, that way we could have had BLL and The Leftovers sweeping the nominations. Plus it would be a great industry award to have under it’s belt going into the guild season.January 5, 2018 at 8:23 pm #1202457417
And we have winners.
Film: Three Billboards
Supporting Actor: Rockwell
Supporting Actress: Janney
Screenplay: Three Billboards
A realistic group that could all repeat at the Oscars.January 5, 2018 at 8:43 pm #1202457428
I, Tonya pulling a carol and getting lead and supporting actress win. But since the winners never gotten snubbed here for both category
guess we can retire this gifJanuary 5, 2018 at 11:18 pm #1202457520
Weird how Three Billboards won for Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Picture, with McDormand losing to Robbie (likely Australian bias) and the film itself not even being nominated for Directing.Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)ParticipantJanuary 6, 2018 at 1:27 am #1202457547
@Teridax McDormand is probably still the Oscar frontrunner at this point. Robbie was amazing in I, Tonya, but I don’t know if she can beat McDormand or Hawkins at the televised awards shows. Also, I have to say that Three Billboards winning Best Film shocked me. I thought that Dunkirk had that award to Nolan’s Best Director win.
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