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90TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS – Nominations Predictions

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  • eastwest
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 6th, 2011
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    #1202473829

    I figured since the last thread is over 500, this thread can be for final predictions.

    Reply
    eastwest
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jun 6th, 2011
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    #1202473831

    Best Picture
    Call Me By Your Name
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    Get Out
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Actor in a Leading Role
    Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
    Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World
    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Actress in a Leading Role
    Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
    Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
    Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
    Meryl Streep – The Post

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

    Animated Feature Film
    The Boss Baby
    The Breadwinner
    Coco
    Despicable Me 3
    Loving Vincent

    Cinematography
    Roger Deakins – Blade Runner 2049
    Bruno Delbonnel – Darkest Hour
    Hoyte Van Hoytema – Dunkirk
    Rachel Morrison – Mudbound
    Dan Laustsen – The Shape of Water

    Costume Design
    Jacqueline Durran – Beauty and the Beast
    Ellen Mirojnick – The Greatest Showman
    Jennifer Johnson – I, Tonya
    Mark Bridges – Phantom Thread
    Luis Sequeira – The Shape of Water

    Directing
    Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
    Jordan Peele – Get Out
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Documentary (Feature)
    City of Ghosts
    Faces Places
    Icarus
    Jane
    Strong Island

    Documentary (Short Subject)
    Edith+Eddie
    Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
    Heroin(e)
    Kayayo – The Living Shopping Baskets
    Knife Skills

    Film Editing
    Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss – Baby Driver
    Lee Smith – Dunkirk
    Tatiana S. Riegel – I, Tonya
    Sidney Wolinsky – The Shape of Water
    Jon Gregory – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Foreign Language Film
    A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
    In the Fade (Germany)
    The Insult (Lebanon)
    Loveless (Russia)
    The Wound (South Africa)

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    Darkest Hour
    I, Tonya
    Wonder

    Music (Original Score)
    Dario Marianelli – Darkest Hour
    Hans Zimmer – Dunkirk
    Jonny Greenwood – Phantom Thread
    John Williams – The Post
    Alexandre Desplat – The Shape of Water

    Music (Original Song)
    Sufjan Stevens – “Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name
    Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez – “Remember Me” from Coco
    Diane Warren and Common – “Stand Up For Something” from Marshall
    Benj Pasek and Justin Paul – “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
    Sufjan Stevens – “Visions of Gideon” from Call Me By Your Name

    Production Design
    Beauty and the Beast
    Blade Runner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    The Post
    The Shape of Water

    Short Film (Animated)
    Dear Basketball
    Fox and the Whale
    In a Heartbeat
    Negative Space
    Revolting Rhymes

    Short Film (Live Action)
    The Eleven O’Clock
    Icebox
    My Nephew Emmett
    The Silent Child
    Watu Wote/All of Us

    Sound Editing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    Sound Mixing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Wonder Woman

    Visual Effects
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    Okja
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    War for the Planet of the Apes

    Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
    James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name
    Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber – The Disaster Artist
    Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green – Logan
    Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
    Virgil Williams and Dee Rees – Mudbound

    Writing (Original Screenplay)
    Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani – The Big Sick
    Jordan Peele – Get Out
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor – The Shape of Water
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

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    Tyler The Awesome Guy
    Participant
    Joined:
    Nov 19th, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1202473832

    Best Picture
    Call Me by Your Name
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO

    Best Director
    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards
    Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
    Jordan Peele – Get Out

    Best Actor
    Timothee Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

    Best Actress
    Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
    Frances McDormand – Three Billboards
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
    Saorise Ronan – Lady Bird
    Meryl Streep – The Post

    Best Supporting Actor
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
    Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
    Christopher Plummer – All the Money…
    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards

    Best Supporting Actress
    Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

    Best Original Screenplay
    Get Out
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Call Me by Your Name
    The Disaster Artist
    Molly’s Game
    Mudbound
    Victoria and Abdul

    Best Original Score
    Dunkirk
    Phantom Thread
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO

    Best Original Song
    “Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
    “Mighty River” – Mudbound
    “Prayers for This World” – Cries from Syria
    “Remember Me” – Coco
    “Stand Up for Something” – Marshall

    Best Sound Editing
    Blade Runner 2049
    Detroit
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    Best Sound Mixing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    Best Animated Feature
    The Breadwinner
    Coco
    Ferdinand
    The LEGO Batman Movie
    Loving Vincent

    Best Cinematography
    Blade Runner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    Mudbound
    The Shape of Water

    Best Makeup and Hair
    Darkest Hour
    I, Tonya
    Wonder

    Best Production Design
    Beauty and the Beast
    Blade Runner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water

    Best Costume Design
    Beauty and the Beast
    The Greatest Showman
    Murder on the Orient Express
    Phantom Thread
    The Shape of Water

    Best Film Editing
    Baby Driver
    Dunkirk
    I, Tonya
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, MO

    Best Visual Effects
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    War for the Planet of the Apes

    FYC: Ready Player One. Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Original Score, Production Design, Director and BEST PICTURE (make it happen Oscars!!)

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    Riley
    Keymaster
    Joined:
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    #1202473855

    Not going to wait for MPSE?

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    eastwest
    Participant
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    Jun 6th, 2011
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    #1202473884

    Changes can always be made

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    Diet Teridax
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    #1202474003

    I want to take Lou out of my predictions for Animated Short and replace it with either Garden Party or Cradle.

    My other 4 are In a Heartbeat, Dear Basketball, Revolting Rhymes, and Negative Space. The first 3 I am very confident on, the latter only moderately so. How often do Pixar shorts fail to get nominated by the Oscars? Lou was just so MEH that I can’t buy that many people truly loving it.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    MKnight98
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    Aug 14th, 2017
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    #1202474007

    Best Picture
    The Big Sick
    Call Me by Your Name
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    (The Florida Project as the 10th choice)

    Best Director
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
    Jordan Peele – Get Out
    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water

    Best Actor
    Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
    Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

    Best Actress
    Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
    Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
    Meryl Streep – The Post

    Best Supporting Actor
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer – Call Me by Your Name
    Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
    Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

    Best Original Screenplay
    The Big Sick – Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon
    Get Out – Jordan Peele
    Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
    The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory
    The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
    Logan – Scott Frank and James Mangold
    Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin
    Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

    Best Animated Feature
    The Breadwinner
    Coco
    The Lego Batman Movie
    Loving Vincent
    Mary and the Witch’s Flower

    Best Foreign Language Film
    A Fantastic Woman
    Foxtrot
    In the Fade
    Loveless
    The Square

    Best Documentary Feature
    City of Ghosts
    Faces Places
    Icarus
    Jane
    Strong Island

    Best Live Action Short
    DeKalb Elementary
    Facing Mecca
    Rise of a Star
    The Silent Child
    Watu Wote: All of Us

    Best Animated Short
    Cradle
    Dear Basketball
    Fox and the Whale
    Garden Party
    In a Heartbeat

    Best Documentary Short
    116 Cameras
    Alone
    Edith+Eddie
    Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
    Heroin(e)

    Best Original Score
    Blade Runner 2049 – Hans Zimmer and Benjamin Wallfisch
    Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
    Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
    The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
    War for the Planet of the Apes – Michael Giacchino

    Best Original Song
    “Evermore” – Beauty and the Beast
    “Mystery of Love” – Call Me by Your Name
    “Remember Me” – Coco
    “Stand Up for Something” – Marshall
    “This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman

    Best Production Design
    Beauty and the Beast
    Blade Runner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water

    Best Cinematography
    Blade Runner 2049
    Darkest Hour
    Dunkirk
    Mudbound
    Wonderstruck

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    Darkest Hour
    Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
    I, Tonya

    Best Costume Design
    Beauty and the Beast
    The Greatest Showman
    Murder on the Orient Express
    Phantom Thread
    The Shape of Water

    Best Film Editing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    The Shape of Water

    Best Sound Editing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    War for the Planet of the Apes

    Best Sound Mixing
    Baby Driver
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    The Shape of Water
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi

    Best Visual Effects
    Blade Runner 2049
    Dunkirk
    Okja
    Star Wars: The Last Jedi
    War for the Planet of the Apes

    • This reply was modified 10 months, 3 weeks ago by  MKnight98.
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    TheRedBoy
    Participant
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    Jan 22nd, 2013
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    #1202474008

    The nominations are under two days away, and there are so many things I’m still quite unsure of.

    Best Picture
    There are several films I can imagine pulling “shock” nominations here:
    •Molly’s Game or The Disaster Artist, because I doubt Call Me By Your Name will be the only Adapted Screenplay nominee to make the lineup and Mudbound doesn’t seem to have the momentum or passion of the other two
    •Wonder Woman or Coco, because they’re very well-liked blockbusters
    •The Big Sick, which is a strong contender for the last Original Screenplay nomination slot
    •Darkest Hour, because all but 3 of this century’s films that won Lead Actor were also nominated for Best Picture (and it predictably did really well at BAFTA)
    •The Florida Project and Phantom Thread, which are longshots but are still in the mix

    Best Director
    Can Guadagnino get in? Whose slot is he taking: Peele, Gerwig, or Nolan?

    Lead Actor
    Could Washington, Hanks, or Gyllenhaal get in over Kaluuya or Franco?

    Lead Actress
    It doesn’t seem likely, but could Molly’s Game have built enough momentum for Chastain to kick out Streep?

    Supporting Actor
    Did CMBYN’s momentum fizzle out to the point that neither Hammer nor Stuhlbarg make the lineup? If so, does Harrelson or Plummer take the fifth slot? Could Shannon pop up again?

    Supporting Actress
    Spencer, Blige, Chau, Haddish… Only room for two. Funny how the three white women are all safe, though!

    Original Screenplay
    The Post is dead, but does The Big Sick or I, Tonya take its spot? Both had WGA noms.

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    Cinephile
    Participant
    Joined:
    Sep 25th, 2017
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    Posts:
    #1202474017

    Best Picture
    The Big Sick
    Call Me By Your Name
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    Get Out
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Possible Spoiler: Wonder Woman

    Actor in a Leading Role
    Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
    Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
    James Franco – The Disaster Artist
    Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
    Gary Oldman- Darkest Hour

    Possible Spoiler: Denzel Washington

    Actor in a Supporting Role
    Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
    Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
    Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
    Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World
    Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Possible Spoiler: Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Actress in a Leading Role
    Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
    Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
    Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
    Meryl Streep – The Post

    Possible Spoiler: Jessica Chastain

    Actress in a Supporting Role
    Hong Chau – Downsizing
    Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
    Allison Janney – I, Tonya
    Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
    Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

    Possible Spoiler: Mary J Blige

    Directing
    Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
    Jordan Peele – Get Out
    Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
    Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
    Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Possible Spoiler: Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

    Adapted Screenplay
    Call Me By Your Name
    The Disaster Artist
    Logan
    Molly’s Game
    Mudbound

    Possible Spoiler: Wonder

    Original Screenplay
    The Big Sick
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    The Shape of Water
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

    Possible Spoiler: I, Tonya

    Animated Feature Film
    The Boss Baby
    The Breadwinner
    Coco
    Despicable Me 3
    Loving Vincent

    Foreign Language Film
    A Fantastic Woman
    Foxtrot
    In the Fade
    Loveless
    The Square

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    Diet Teridax
    Participant
    Joined:
    Dec 12th, 2014
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    Posts:
    #1202474036

    The nominations are under two days away, and there are so many things I’m still quite unsure of.

    Best Picture
    There are several films I can imagine pulling “shock” nominations here:
    •Molly’s Game or The Disaster Artist, because I doubt Call Me By Your Name will be the only Adapted Screenplay nominee to make the lineup and Mudbound doesn’t seem to have the momentum or passion of the other two
    •Wonder Woman or Coco, because they’re very well-liked blockbusters
    •The Big Sick, which is a strong contender for the last Original Screenplay nomination slot
    •Darkest Hour, because all but 3 of this century’s films that won Lead Actor were also nominated for Best Picture (and it predictably did really well at BAFTA)
    •The Florida Project and Phantom Thread, which are longshots but are still in the mix

    Best Director
    Can Guadagnino get in? Whose slot is he taking: Peele, Gerwig, or Nolan?

    Lead Actor
    Could Washington, Hanks, or Gyllenhaal get in over Kaluuya or Franco?

    Lead Actress
    It doesn’t seem likely, but could Molly’s Game have built enough momentum for Chastain to kick out Streep?

    Supporting Actor
    Did CMBYN’s momentum fizzle out to the point that neither Hammer nor Stuhlbarg make the lineup? If so, does Harrelson or Plummer take the fifth slot? Could Shannon pop up again?

    Supporting Actress
    Spencer, Blige, Chau, Haddish… Only room for two. Funny how the three white women are all safe, though!

    Original Screenplay
    The Post is dead, but does The Big Sick or I, Tonya take its spot? Both had WGA noms.

    Best Picture

    I can only see CMBYN making the cut for Best Picture among Adapted Screenplays, as crazy as that may sound. Molly’s Game only gets in for Picture if Chastain replaces Streep in Lead Actress, which I hope will happen but do not think will happen. I think if there are 7 nominees I, Tonya will make the cut for BP, if there are 8 Bafta BP nominee Darkest Hour makes it, and if there are 9 then PGA/ACE Eddie nominee The Post just barely makes it with Streep being the only other nomination as an Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close type of outcome.

    Best Director

    I am seriously considering taking either Nolan or Peele out of Directing for Guadagnino. Get Out got snubbed for Picture and Director by Bafta, but it at least was nominated for SAG Ensemble while Dunkirk wasn’t even strong enough to win Stunt Ensemble over a freaking superhero movie. Also, Nolan couldn’t even get nominated for Inception when he had been nominated for every Directing award beforehand. I see a possible snub for Dunkirk, even though Nolan has made more precursors than Peele and Dunkirk’s direction is by far more showy than Get Out’s, simply because Nolan is such a cold filmmaker. The emotional core and cultural relevance of Get Out should make Peele safe, with Nolan hanging on for last. I am predicting Get Out to under-perform at the Oscars in general, with genre bias playing a role. Dunkirk was just so… soulless. It is impossible to be entirely objective in ones predictions, but I’m trying to keep a clear head with Director specifically. Dunkirk is not a film you need to be woke in order to understand, whereas are the Oscars’ few hundred members of the Directing branch really woke enough to get Get Out? I don’t know about that, but my answer sadly leans heavily towards no. Even though I have Nolan in last place right now, I am far more tempted to take out Peele, if not only because of the “woke” factor hurting it more than helping it. I think Gerwig is safe for a nomination because of the #MeToo movement and even Steven Spielberg saying that he believed the Oscars would recognize female directors this year. Plus, she genuinely deserves it.

    Lead Actor

    The scandal with Franco broke way too late for there to be an impact with the Oscars, so he’s still getting in. I have Kaluuya in 3rd at 100/1 odds. He has gotten in literally everywhere with these major precursors, even with places like Bafta and the AACTA International Awards where Get Out was snubbed for Best Picture AND Best Director Kaluuya has still managed to make the final 5. He’s safely behind Oldman and Chalamet, he’s easily getting in with the Oscars, no matter how badly his movie under-performs with them.

    Lead Actress

    Streep was her films only nomination for Music of the Heart, One True Thing, A Cry In The Dark, and Julie & Julia. In other words, even if The Post does get snubbed for Best Picture, there is no way she gets snubbed for Best Actress. The Oscar voters won’t even need to see her movie, they will just mindlessly check of Streep like sheep, as sad as that is.

    Supporting Actor

    Michael Shannon at least got nominated for Nocturnal Animals at Critics Choice, unlike with The Shape of Water, so he isn’t getting in, especially when the film is so uneven with the actors that Jenkins got snubbed at Bafta and Spencer got snubbed at SAG. Harrelson is getting in again, since his movie is the Best Picture frontrunner. I think Armie Hammer (NOT Stuhlbarg anymore) could get in but his SAG snub killed a lot of momentum he really needed. I think Bafta nominee Plummer gets in because the Oscars will want to give a big fat f**k you to Kevin Spacey.

    Supporting Actress

    I took out Mary J. Blige today and replaced her with Holly Hunter, which is weird because I still have The Big Sick getting snubbed for Original Screenplay. I think even though Mudbound will get into Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography, anti-Netflix bias will hurt SAG nominee Blige just as it hurt SAG winner Idris Elba for another Netflix release, Beasts of No Nation. I think Spencer gets in simply because it is a film most voters have seen and loved. Chau gets in because she was so talked about as being the only good part of Downsizing and has the same “breakout star” narrative that is also helping Kaluuya and to a much greater extent Timothee Chalamet this awards season. I wish Tiffany Haddish and/or Tatiana Maslany (my personal SA winner) could get in, but the lack of having SAG, Globe, and Bafta nominations killed their chances.

    Original Screenplay

    I say stick with I, Tonya over The Big Sick. The Shape of Water could be snubbed, but the literary fairy tale aspects of the script will appeal to just enough snobs in the writers branch to give it the edge it needs. As much as it makes me sick to say it, The Big Sick getting completely shut out at Bafta really hurt its chances. I have Hunter in last place for Supporting Actress simply because of how weak her category has sadly become, but Original Screenplay is so packed with competition that I do not see Nanjiani and Gordon’s great work making it through to the final 5. I, Tonya got 5 Bafta nominations, it already has a guaranteed win for Allison Janney in Supporting Actress, who might I remind you thanked the writer of the film Steven Rogers by name in BOTH her SAG and Globe acceptance speeches. I forget if she mentioned him in her Critics Choice speech or if she was even there (I remember a lot of celebrities didn’t attend) but you get the point. Tonya’s safe for a Screenplay nod by this point.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    nevkm
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 3rd, 2018
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    #1202474045

    I’m having trouble with BP as well.

    Best Picture
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    The Shape of Water
    Get Out
    Call Me By Your Name
    Dunkirk
    The Florida Project
    I, Tonya
    Lady Bird
    The Post
    The Big Sick/ Darkest Hour/Mudbound/Phantom Thread ???

     

     

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    Palmboom
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    Sep 11th, 2015
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    #1202474058

    On the eve of the nominations, i’m still having a lot of doubts. I don’t think I can remember the last year that I had this much trouble on the last day of predicting. Very exciting, but also very much keeping me up at night!

    Best Picture
    1. Three Billboards
    2. The Shape of Water
    3. Lady Bird
    4. Get Out
    5. Dunkirk
    6. The Post
    7. Call Me By Your Name
    8. I, Tonya
    9. The Big Sick
    10. Darkest Hour?

    I don’t think The Florida Project has had enough of momentum to be nominated here, but I seem to be quite alone in that. I’m having doubts about Tonya, The Big Sick and Darkest Hour. If they go with 8, Tonya will get in I think.

    Best Actress
    1. Frances McDormand
    2. Saoirse Ronan
    3. Sally Hawkins
    4. Meryl Streep
    5. Margot Robbie

    This category seems pretty locked up right now. I can imagine Chastain getting in, but don’t think she will. Robbie has had more of a spotlight than Chastain, so I think Robbie has a better shot here.

    Best Actor
    1. Gary Oldman
    2. Timothee Chalamet
    3. Daniel Day-Lewis
    4. Daniel Kaluuya
    5. Tom Hanks

    Gary Oldman is a definite lock. Same for Chalamet and Kaluuya, who both have been nominated everywhere. Day-Lewis is probably retiring (we will never know for sure until it really happens) and will get some votes because of that, some votes because he’s Day-Lewis and some votes because he’s a very good actor.

    I personally love Tom Hanks and can’t put myself to the task of pulling him out of this category. But the Academy also likes Hanks, so he might get in. It’s still a Spielberg/Hanks/Streep picture, so that’s bound to get some votes regardless of how good the picture is.

    Supporting actress
    1. Allison Janney
    2. Laurie Metcalf
    3. Mary J. Blige
    4. Holly Hunter
    5. Octavia Spencer

    I think Spencer can ride the momentum of The Shape of Water to a nomination. Janney and Metcalf are locks, but i’m not sure of their order. Furthermore, I believe Blige and Hunter have the best odds.

    Director
    1. Christopher Nolan
    2. Guillermo Del Toro
    3. Greta Gerwig
    4. Martin McDonagh
    5. Jordan Peele

    Three Billboards has done so well that I think McDonagh can get in now. Get out is culturally relevant, so Peele will get in. With the female empowerment movement and the critical appeal of Lady Bird, Gerwig will get in.
    Del Toro is a lock, because he’s overdue en he’s big awards already.
    Nolan is incredibly overdue and I still have him winning, like i’ve had him do for weeks (or maybe months) now. I think we’ll have to see how the BAFTA’s go and how many nominations TSOW will get.

    Original Screenplay
    1. Lady Bird
    2. Get Out
    3. Three Billboards
    4. The Shape of Water
    5. The Big Sick

    We have a plethora of original screenplays this year, it’s fantastic. I believe Lady Bird, Get Out and Three Billboards are definite locks, TSOW is a very possible nomination and that The Big Sick will round out the category. The Post and I, Tonya trail but I don’t think they’ll make the cut. If any of the two do, it will be The Post instead of The Big Sick.

    Adapted Screenplay
    1. Call Me By Your Name
    2. Molly’s Game
    3. Mudbound
    4. The Disaster Artist
    5. Wonder/Logan

    Two words: James Ivory. As sure as I am about him, as much doubt I have about the last nominee. Ivory is a definite lock for winner, Sorkin is a logical runner-up. With so many likely BP noms with original screenplays, you don’t have a lot left in this category. Most likely of the remaining screenplays, I believe is Mudbound. After that, The Disaster Artist. But i’m still doubting if I should choose Wonder or Logan next. I’ve had Wonder in there for a long time, but lately i’ve been thinking about Logan. I believe Logan was a revelation and a very good movie with a great screenplay and therefore I hope it gets in, but i’m very doubtful.

    I’m very excited to see what happens tomorrow!

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    Diet Teridax
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    Obvious Oscar nomination spoiler alert: The Florida Project is NOT getting into Best Picture, even if there are 10 nominees. The Lenny Abrahamson and Sean Baker comparisons never have made any damn sense, “just because they are critically acclaimed indies” is not a valid comparison. Abrahamson had such a more difficult task creating such constant tension, the vision of an entire world in just this one room in the eyes of a child. His film also had a guaranteed acting win for Larson and was a lock for a Writing nod, while Florida Project has zero chance of breaking into a category so tight The Big Sick and PTA’s latest likely won’t make the final 5. Dafoe’s nomination IS his reward by this point, let’s be real here. Besides Dafoe, it got snubbed by PGA, Bafta, SAG, the Globes, DGA, WGA, and ACE Eddie. You could say it got into Best Picture and Director at the Spirits, but so did Chloe Zhao’s The Rider while Best Picture Oscar frontrunner Three Billboards wasn’t even nominated, so we can confidently toss out the Indie Spirits as a reliable Oscar precursor this year. The Florida Project is a critics darling that doesn’t have nearly enough industry support to land on enough #1 spots on Oscar voters ballots to make it into Best Picture. I’m not saying Wonder Woman will be nominated for Best Picture, but to make a point that movie at least got PGA and it won an award at SAG, so I could even see a more legitamite argument for that superhero film getting into Best Picture than The Florida Project by this point. The Florida Project isn’t getting nominated for Best Picture. Fair warning, take it or leave it.

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

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    BenitoDelicias
    Participant
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    Topics:
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    #1202474068

    Best Picture
    3 Billboards
    Shape of Water
    Dunkirk
    Get Out
    Lady Bird
    Call Me By Your Name
    I Tonya
    The Post
    Darkest Hour
    (Alt. The Big Sick)

    Best Director
    Nolan
    Del Toro
    Gerwig
    Peele
    McDonagh
    (Guadagnino)

    Best Actor
    Oldman
    Chalamet
    Kaluuya
    Franco
    Day Lewis
    (Gyllenhaal)

    Best Actress
    Ronan
    McDormand
    Hawkins
    Robbie
    Streep
    (Alt. Chastain)

    Best Supporting Actor
    Dafoe
    Rockwell
    Harrelson
    Hammer
    Jenkins
    (Alt. Stuhlbarg)

    Best Supporting Actress
    Janney
    Metcalf
    Chau
    Spencer
    Hunter
    (Alt. Sometimes I want to predict a Haddish shock)

    Original S.
    Lady Bird
    Get Out
    Shape of Water
    I Tonya
    3 Billboards
    (Alt. The Big Sick, Shape misses)

    Adapted S.
    Call Me By Your Name
    Mudbound
    Mollys Game
    The Disaster Artist
    Logan
    (Alt. Wonder)

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    Diet Teridax
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    If “Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405” doesn’t get nominated for Documentary Short, we riot. Here it is, see for yourself.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09M3C4VD1Fg

    Note to myself: Don’t ever feed the trolls. Don’t get involved in others drama. Don’t let myself be swayed by others predictions, trust my gut more often!

    Note to all others: If you don’t happen to like me, ignore me. It is that simple.

    ReplyCopy URL
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