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I’m so conflicted on which film is missing. At first, I removed DTL because it felt like the buzz was fading and its IMDb score is lower compared to most of the top contenders. But then I remembered last year I predicted A Hero’s snub because not only was its IMDb score not impressive, it had a lack of BAFTA mentions. At least DTL was longlisted in director and screenplay (and those LFCC mentions). Plus, its critic mentions really do signify passion (especially those trifecta runner-up positions).
I think the eventual snub will be Close. But its IMDb score is so damn high.
ReplyCopy URLI’m so conflicted on which film is missing. At first, I removed DTL because it felt like the buzz was fading and its IMDb score is lower compared to most of the top contenders. But then I remembered last year I predicted A Hero’s snub because not only was its IMDb score not impressive, it had a lack of BAFTA mentions. At least DTL was longlisted in director and screenplay (and those LFCC mentions). Plus, its critic mentions really do signify passion (especially those trifecta runner-up positions). I think the eventual snub will be Close. But its IMDb score is so damn high.
It was also longlisted in Editing, which is a pretty good sign of support. Btw, it was the only non-english film to make the Original Screenplay longlist. I don’t know. I understand why some people think it could miss but I personally don’t buy it. I also had a feeling A Hero was going to miss but for some reason I still end up predicting it. I ended up taking out Flee (dumb prediction) cause I wasn’t really sure if it was going to make 3 different categories, considering its animated/documentary nature.
Close score is whats throwing me off as well but it’s just so buzzless. And with The Quiet Girl rising, are they really going to nominate two movies with children at the front? Idk.
ReplyCopy URLIt was also longlisted in Editing, which is a pretty good sign of support. Btw, it was the only non-english film to make the Original Screenplay longlist. I don’t know. I understand why some people think it could miss but I personally don’t buy it. I also had a feeling A Hero was going to miss but for some reason I still end up predicting it. I ended up taking out Flee (dumb prediction) cause I wasn’t really sure if it was going to make 3 different categories, considering its animated/documentary nature. Close score is whats throwing me off as well but it’s just so buzzless. And with The Quiet Girl rising, are they really going to nominate two movies with children at the front? Idk.
Oh right, the editing longlist mention completely went over my head. Even more impressive (and deserved IMO). I just saw today that MUBI + Bong Joon-ho are campaigning DTL for International Film, Director, and Screenplay to AMPAS and BAFTA. I’m holding out hope that the jury nominates him (over Berger lol) which is possible since he got a director nom at LFCC.
As for the rest of the contenders, I think Bardo gets in at the end of the day. Academy members have been vocal about their love for the film + it’s highly likely it gets a nom in Cinematography (I think it will). Quiet Girl is surging at the right time so it’s probably in too. All Quiet is self-explanatory. Argentina, 1985 probably receives the Messi effect like it did at the Globes. As for Close, you’re right, it’s buzz-less so I’m thinking it gets snubbed.
ReplyCopy URLAlthough Corsage hadn’t been in the top 5 in Gold Derby’s odds, it now has no chance of a nomination at all due to some truly horrific news involving one of its actors. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/corsage-actor-florian-teichtmeister-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography-1235299635/
ReplyCopy URLAlthough Corsage hadn’t been in the top 5 in Gold Derby’s odds, it now has no chance of a nomination at all due to some truly horrific news involving one of its actors. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/corsage-actor-florian-teichtmeister-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography-1235299635/
Yikes…💀🤮
ReplyCopy URLAlthough Corsage hadn’t been in the top 5 in Gold Derby’s odds, it now has no chance of a nomination at all due to some truly horrific news involving one of its actors. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/corsage-actor-florian-teichtmeister-charged-with-possession-of-child-pornography-1235299635/
Disgusting.
ReplyCopy URLI’m also predicting a Close missing here, it seems a movie with a lack of support. All Quiet on the Western Front has support from BAFTAs and it’s Netflix, Decision to Leave made well with critics and had some good mentions (NSFC, LFCC and BAFTAs) and Argentina 1985 won the Golden Globes and it’s very liked for audience.
I put The Quiet Girl in that fourth slot because it had that mention in Best Adapted Screenplay in BAFTAs longlist and everybody loves the movie. In the fifth spot, I put EO because of the trifecta wins in the category but, after I watched the movie, can see missing because it could be a little experimental for the voters but hope I’m wrong.
ReplyCopy URLOh right, the editing longlist mention completely went over my head. Even more impressive (and deserved IMO). I just saw today that MUBI + Bong Joon-ho are campaigning DTL for International Film, Director, and Screenplay to AMPAS and BAFTA. I’m holding out hope that the jury nominates him (over Berger lol) which is possible since he got a director nom at LFCC. As for the rest of the contenders, I think Bardo gets in at the end of the day. Academy members have been vocal about their love for the film + it’s highly likely it gets a nom in Cinematography (I think it will). Quiet Girl is surging at the right time so it’s probably in too. All Quiet is self-explanatory. Argentina, 1985 probably receives the Messi effect like it did at the Globes. As for Close, you’re right, it’s buzz-less so I’m thinking it gets snubbed.
Oh right, the editing longlist mention completely went over my head. Even more impressive (and deserved IMO). I just saw today that MUBI + Bong Joon-ho are campaigning DTL for International Film, Director, and Screenplay to AMPAS and BAFTA. I’m holding out hope that the jury nominates him (over Berger lol) which is possible since he got a director nom at LFCC. As for the rest of the contenders, I think Bardo gets in at the end of the day. Academy members have been vocal about their love for the film + it’s highly likely it gets a nom in Cinematography (I think it will). Quiet Girl is surging at the right time so it’s probably in too. All Quiet is self-explanatory. Argentina, 1985 probably receives the Messi effect like it did at the Globes. As for Close, you’re right, it’s buzz-less so I’m thinking it gets snubbed.
bardo being nominated with a preferential ballot? a lot of voters will have bardo last
ReplyCopy URLI’m also predicting a Close missing here, it seems a movie with a lack of support. All Quiet on the Western Front has support from BAFTAs and it’s Netflix, Decision to Leave made well with critics and had some good mentions (NSFC, LFCC and BAFTAs) and Argentina 1985 won the Golden Globes and it’s very liked for audience.
I put The Quiet Girl in that fourth slot because it had that mention in Best Adapted Screenplay in BAFTAs longlist and everybody loves the movie. In the fifth spot, I put EO because of the trifecta wins in the category but, after I watched the movie, can see missing because it could be a little experimental for the voters but hope I’m wrong.
My prediction is almost like yours:
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•All Quiet on the Western Front
•Decision to Leave
•Argentina 1985
•The Quiet Girl
•Close/Joyland/EOHoly Spider is surging in Germany this week. Hopefully the European bloc backs this movie to a nomination at the Oscars
ReplyCopy URLFYC:
Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider (Best Actress)
Ana de Armas, Julianne Nicholson - Blonde (Best Actress, Supporting Actress)
Samantha Morton - She Said (Best Supporting Actress)
Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin (Best Supporting Actress)
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