A LADYBIRD shutout?

[FilmatelistParticipant Joined: Nov 19th, 2011 Topics: 13 Posts: 527 View Predictions]

#1202465733

Well, the Critics Choice Awards have presented a very clear path if one wonders how the Oscars could find a way to snub Greta Gerwig’s film across all categories, even in ones where it’s considered a two-race head-to-head showdown.

Actress: Ronan vs MacDormand
Supp. Actress: Metcalf vs. Janney
Orig. Screenplay: Gerwig vs. Peele

With Picture and Director, LADY BIRD isn’t necessarily even in the top 2 for likely winners. I think it’s safe to say a Director award would be a surprise, though a Picture win is certainly more likely given the nature of the preferential ballot and the fact that its 3 other major competitors (SHAPE, GET OUT, BILLBOARDS) can be seen as more polarizing. But polarizing enough to benefit LB? Impossible to say.

So anyone think LADY might go home empty-handed? Or even more bizarrely, it becomes the first film since MUTINY ON THE BOUNTY to only win one award, the top one?

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[kbfr12Participant Joined: Oct 12th, 2012 Topics: 4 Posts: 349 View Predictions]

#1202465738

I’ve been saying for quite some time that Lady Bird could be a sleeper contender for Picture, as it’s always been bubbling right below the surface of whatever film is riding the ephemeral publicity wave at a given moment. I think, with the preferential ballot, we are due for another movie that wins Picture and nothing else. Will this be it? It’s too soon to tell.

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 118 Posts: 14348 View Predictions]

#1202465740

Further reading: http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/could-it-be-that-lady-bird-is-headed-for-all-five-key-oscars/

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[TheRedBoyParticipant Joined: Jan 22nd, 2013 Topics: 2 Posts: 502 View Predictions]

#1202465749

Riley wrote:

Further reading: http://www.goldderby.com/forum/movies/could-it-be-that-lady-bird-is-headed-for-all-five-key-oscars/

A shutout seems much more likely than 5 wins.

The 3 categories Lady Bird has the best chances in are particularly difficult. Best Picture and Original Screenplay are the 2 categories where Get Out’s support will be strongest (as it will likely only have 2/3 noms outside of those categories), plus Three Billboards and The Shape of Water are still in the mix.

Metcalf may be the film’s best chance for a win, but I think Janney’s taking it.

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[lorelei lorParticipant Joined: Dec 20th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 37 View Predictions]

#1202465753

Janney’s definitely taking it and I just don’t see the Academy giving BP to Lady Bird.

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[Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)Participant Joined: Nov 18th, 2012 Topics: 146 Posts: 4551 View Predictions]

#1202465755

Despite McDormand cementing her frontrunner status with every win, Ronan isn’t out yet. At BAFTA, the European factor could help her there.

For Screenplay, I would say that the Original Screenplay battle is a three-way race between Gerwig, Peele and McDonagh. I think that considering how many nods Three Billboards got, the latter will probably win at BAFTA. At the WGA, that’s a tough one to call.

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[MilesParticipant Joined: Oct 22nd, 2016 Topics: 16 Posts: 2642 View Predictions]

#1202465774

In order of likelihood of win (1 being the most likely)

1. Supporting Actress
2. Original Screenplay
3. Actress
4. Picture
5. Director

The only major win I see for Lady Bird is Supporting Actress. I still think Metcalf is the frontrunner to win.

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[M: The OriginalParticipant Joined: Aug 5th, 2014 Topics: 46 Posts: 5352 View Predictions]

#1202465779

SAG will determine Metcalf relevancy.

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[Spark87Participant Joined: Apr 26th, 2013 Topics: 0 Posts: 281 View Predictions]

#1202465782

Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1) wrote:

Despite McDormand cementing her frontrunner status with every win, Ronan isn’t out yet. At BAFTA, the European factor could help her there.

My feeling is that if there’s some british that’s gonna upset McDormand, that will be Sally Hawkins.

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[Paul HardisterParticipant Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 15 Posts: 408 View Predictions]

#1202465813

As much as I love Lady Bird, I think its Best Picture chances are over.
* No Globe Director nom
* No Bafta Best Film nom
* No Critics Choice Awards at all (No film has ever won Best Picture without winning at least one Critics Choice award.)

Given Ronan’s loss to Robbie last night, I don’t see Best Actress going to Lady Bird. Director looks like a lock for del Toro. As others have mentioned, I agree Metcalf could still be in the race if she wins SAG. If not, voters might want to give Lady Bird at least one award. If Lady Bird wins WGA, it could win Original Screenplay. I think Lady Bird’s best hopes as it stands now is: a Boyhood kind of night – sole win for Best Supporting Actress. Or a Juno kind of night – sole win for Best Original Screenplay.

• This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  Paul Hardister. Reason: typo
• This reply was modified 1 year, 2 months ago by  Paul Hardister. Reason: made a correction

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[lorelei lorParticipant Joined: Dec 20th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 37 View Predictions]

#1202465817

Paul Hardister wrote:

As much as I love Lady Bird, I think it’s Best Picture chances are over. * No Globe Director nom * No Bafta Best Film nom * No Critics Choice Awards at All (No film has ever won Best Picture without winning at least one Critics Choice award.)

I agree but there’s one small problem. It’s  its Best Picture chances.

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[Zooey the DreamerParticipant Joined: Jan 12th, 2012 Topics: 6 Posts: 1116 View Predictions]

#1202465820

I hope Metcalf wins this. She was brilliant. Janney was one-note.

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[Paul HardisterParticipant Joined: Feb 26th, 2012 Topics: 15 Posts: 408 View Predictions]

#1202465826

lorelei lor wrote:

Paul Hardister wrote:

As much as I love Lady Bird, I think it’s Best Picture chances are over. * No Globe Director nom * No Bafta Best Film nom * No Critics Choice Awards at All (No film has ever won Best Picture without winning at least one Critics Choice award.)

I agree but there’s one small problem. It’s its Best Picture chances.

Thanks! I fixed the typo. Good catch.

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[RileyKeymaster Joined: Oct 11th, 2010 Topics: 118 Posts: 14348 View Predictions]

#1202465847

You called out that typo and not the one in the thread title?

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[lorelei lorParticipant Joined: Dec 20th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 37 View Predictions]

#1202465857

Riley wrote:

You called out that typo and not the one in the thread title?

That one just bothered me more. I keep seeing it.

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