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Make your predictions here and discuss the winners
ReplyFYC OSCARS
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN- Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay
The Irishman and Parasite both maxed out here, which makes this a more meaningful Oscar simulation than the Globes or SAG in my books. Joaquin Phoenix is the only lock. Margot Robbie is a good bet in supporting actress for Bombshell and I could be way off, but I feel like AACTA kind of counts Charlize Theron as one of their own? Screenplay is almost anyone’s game.
ReplyCopy URLThese just seem like a mess, but to be fair, AACTA is prone to seem like that, being so early, like when Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney began their sweeps while Willem Dafoe and Laurie Metcalf were still the frontrunners and then there was that year when they went six out of seven because they totally called the Birdman sweep that extended to screenplay and which we actually never clued into until it was too late.
There were some logic fails here. I get awarding Quentin Tarantino without Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but I do not know how you award Parasite without Bong Joon Ho. Joker has twice as many nominations as Marriage Story, even nominated over it in screenplay, but Adam Driver beats Joaquin Phoenix? Saoirse Ronan is just random. I do not know what to do with that and maybe there just is nothing to be done with it. I suppose that the biggest takeaway here is that Charlize Theron lost despite them loving Bombshell in the nominations and even giving it a win. Renée Zellweger and Scarlett Johansson can more easily recover from this.
Margot Robbie was expected. I have not bought into the Brad Pitt sweep, but I will now. This group awarded Mark Rylance. Taika Waititi is local-adjacent, so I will not put too much stock into that win; it says something that Jojo Rabbit had no other nominations, although I am not entirely sure what. I will take credit for two things that I have been saying all season: Parasite winning Best Picture and The Irishman not having passion and even being shut out here.
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