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Academy members should read THIS article about preferential ballot!

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  • Eddy Q
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    #1203322356

    An piece by Tom Brueggemann from Indiewire about how the preferential ballot works – in short, vote your favourite as no 1! Rank according to your preferences and nothing else, and do not try to game the system. It will not work.

    Anyone with any influence or connections with Academy members, make sure they see this!

    https://www.indiewire.com/2020/01/oscars-voters-preferential-voting-best-picture-1202205711/

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203322508

    Really makes me think we’re all overthinking this preferential ballot thing.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203322514

    How are we overthinking the preferential ballot? It’s the entire system that determines the Best Picture winner. This just means that there’s some corruption in the academy voter bases, which is to be expected.

    Academy-Award winners:

    Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay

    Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix

    Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted Screenplay

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203322615

    How are we overthinking the preferential ballot? It’s the entire system that determines the Best Picture winner. This just means that there’s some corruption in the academy voter bases, which is to be expected.

    Oh. Must’ve misread it, then.

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    Honey
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    #1203322620

    It’s always more strategic to throw the front runner at the bottom of the ballot especially if they’re a weak front runner. u have absolutely no chance of ur #1 film winning if u don’t. It’s silly to do otherwise.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203322746

    It’s always more strategic to throw the front runner at the bottom of the ballot especially if they’re a weak front runner. u have absolutely no chance of ur #1 film winning if u don’t. It’s silly to do otherwise.

    No this is a misunderstanding of how the ballot works. Read the article again.

    As long as your top choice stays in the game with enough #1s (or transferred #2s or #3s etc.) from the other voters, then your other rankings will not be counted at all. It will be irrelevant whether you’ve ranked the ‘frontrunner’ 2nd or 9th unless your top choice is eliminated, and if that does occur it will happen regardless of how else you ranked your ballot. If the consensus frontrunner is in your top 5, there is no point ranking it any lower in order to ‘help’ your #1 choice. All you will achieve is potentially boosting a film you like even less to win Best Picture.

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    Sagand
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    #1203322758

    It’s always more strategic to throw the front runner at the bottom of the ballot especially if they’re a weak front runner. u have absolutely no chance of ur #1 film winning if u don’t. It’s silly to do otherwise.

    No. Nope. Certainly not. That is incorrect.

    Think of it like this, each voter gets one vote. That vote goes to the highest ranked film. (The 2nd to 9th place films all receive zero votes from you, so it makes no difference where you ranked it’s rival)

    The only way your other preferences are looked at is if your first ranked film is eliminated. Your one vote then goes to the highest ranked film left on your ballot. (All the other films still receive nothing from you).

    So your ballot should look like:

    1. Film you most want to win
    2. Film you most want to win if #1 is eliminated
    3. Film you most want to win if #1 & #2 are eliminated
    4. Film you most want to win if #1, #2 & #3 are eliminated
    ect.
    which is basically favourite to least favourite. This is the only logical way to rank (with the amount of information we have).

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    Honey
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    #1203322764

    No this is a misunderstanding of how the ballot works. Read the article again. As long as your top choice stays in the game with enough #1s (or transferred #2s or #3s etc.) from the other voters, then your other rankings will not be counted at all. It will be irrelevant whether you’ve ranked the ‘frontrunner’ 2nd or 9th unless your top choice is eliminated, and if that does occur it will happen regardless of how else you ranked your ballot. If the consensus frontrunner is in your top 5, there is no point ranking it any lower in order to ‘help’ your #1 choice. All you will achieve is potentially boosting a film you like even less to win Best Picture.

    But that’s exactly the point. U don’t vote by ur preference. U vote to kill off the front runner to boost ur #1 film’s chances and make it more even race. U only know what the perceived front runner is based on how they’ve done with the precursors. The gap from 2-9 for all we know could be close to each other where every one of those films are fluid could technically switch spots depending on how the votes reshuffle. And if the other 8 film voters all threw the front runner at the bottom, the front runner is eliminated and that front runner’s #1 votes get reshuffled. Voting for ur preference is silly when the main goal is for ur #1 film to win. And of course if ur the front runner, u have less control on the votes, besides throwing ur main competition in the bottom hoping a future round will Kill it off.

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    Sagand
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    #1203322824

    U vote to kill off the front runner to boost ur #1 film’s chances and make it more even race.

    There’s no way to negatively vote, all you can do is boast your favourite film by putting it in your first position.

    And if the other 8 film voters all threw the front runner at the bottom, the front runner is eliminated and that front runner’s #1 votes get reshuffled.

    The frontrunner wouldn’t be eliminated unless it has the least number one votes. (If it does have the least number 1 votes it would be eliminated first without using your ‘tactics’ too)

    Voting for ur preference is silly when the main goal is for ur #1 film to win.

    If your 2nd-9th preferences are being looked at your #1 has already been eliminated so your goal has failed. Your new goal should be to help your second favourite to win. You do this most effectively by ranking in order of preference.

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203323072

    Let’s say I want Parasite to win. I won’t be mad if 1917 wins. And i hate Once Upon a Time (only because it is a frontrunner).

    So i put parasite first, 1917 next and put once upon at the bottom.

    If Parasite is the frontrunner, then that’s done. My vote is cast.

    If Parasite gets removed and now the competition is between 1917 and Once, 1917 can now have a better chance of winning because I placed Once Upon last.

    If Parasite lovers like me put Joker or Jojo Rabbit (1917 at 2nd or 3rd) but they all have Once last, as long as that movie is at the bottom of people’s lists, 1917 has a better shot at winning.

    So… putting a perceived frontrunner last can still work in your favor. As long as you vote for what you really want to win.

    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  L Hawks.
    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  L Hawks.
    • This reply was modified 2 months ago by  L Hawks.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    Honey
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    #1203323075

    If your 2nd-9th preferences are being looked at your #1 has already been eliminated so your goal has failed. Your new goal should be to help your second favourite to win. You do this most effectively by ranking in order of preference.

    And how is the front runner supposedly supposed to get new #1 votes if every eliminated film voters threw the front runner in last place? Their votes will never go to the front runner. Eventually those eliminated films votes get reshuffled and it would just help all the films besides the front runner. And yeah the last place/ranking makes a diff if there’s a tie between 2 films who have the least #1 (which of course is prob rare to happen) Whether they determine who gets knocked off by which film had more #1 originally or who has lower ranking based on the votes, they’d just get knocked out that round or the round after. We don’t even know the order of which films get eliminated. U gain absolutely nothing by picking the front runners near the top of ur ballot instead of keeping weaker films around. Like u said, it’s to keep ur film as long as possible in the race. Technically if ur first pick is already eliminated, ur goal already Failed whether it’s ur preferred second pick or third pick that wins.

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    Sagand
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    #1203323092

    And how is the front runner supposedly supposed to get new #1 votes if every eliminated film voters threw the front runner in last place? Their votes will never go to the front runner.

    This is true.

    But say ‘Voter 1’ is a Ford V Ferrari voter and 1917 is the front runner. They like 1917 better than Parasite. Under your method they vote 1917 last. Then Ford is eliminated so Voter 1’s vote moves to Parasite (even through they prefer 1917). By following your method of tactically voting they helped a film they liked less win.

    Obviously this is good for Voter 2 who’s first choice is Parasite, but Voter 2 doesn’t get to decide how for Voter 1 votes. The best thing for Voter 1 is to follow their personal preference and rank 1917 higher.

    IF the majority don’t want the front runner to win, it won’t win if people vote their preferences.

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    Honey
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    #1203323154

    This is true. But say ‘Voter 1’ is a Ford V Ferrari voter and 1917 is the front runner. They like 1917 better than Parasite. Under your method they vote 1917 last. Then Ford is eliminated so Voter 1’s vote moves to Parasite (even through they prefer 1917). By following your method of tactically voting they helped a film they liked less win. Obviously this is good for Voter 2 who’s first choice is Parasite, but Voter 2 doesn’t get to decide how for Voter 1 votes. The best thing for Voter 1 is to follow their personal preference and rank 1917 higher. IF the majority don’t want the front runner to win, it won’t win if people vote their preferences.

    But Voter 2 is also helping Voter 1 by voting 1917 last as long as FvF isn’t eliminated. Voter 1 has no idea when Parasite would be eliminated and would rather have Voter #2 stick around than have their vote go to 1917 for it to win. U only help the lead stay the lead if u throw ur vote for them at anything but last place. And if Parasite was the alternative if 1917 got eliminated and the #1 1917 voters voted their main competition last (aka Parasite), their votes now go to FvF before Parasite And now FvF just gained a new vote which is 1 less vote needed to overtake Parasite with Parasite becomes the new front runner but with a smaller lead. And Presumably, Voter 1 would’ve voted Parasite second to last as well as the weaker films ranking the front runners in the bottom, and Voter 2 would’ve voted FvF/weaker films high enough because they never thought of them as a threat to a win so basically a throwaway vote.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    #1203323468

    I guess a lot of people don’t fully understand the preferential ballot?

    It’s a ranked ballot, with the PREFERRED choice taking precedence. If two frontrunners are identified, you can game and influence the whole vote. Make sure one frontrunner is consistently ranked ABOVE the other.

    – Green Book vs ROMA – Green Book won 2 preferential ballots (PGA + Oscars) means it was consistently ranked ABOVE Roma on most ballots.

    Parasite Vs 1917: Since we can assume these two films won’t win on the first round (50% +1 #1 votes), For Parasite to win, it has to be ranked ABOVE 1917 on most (if not) all ballots. Meaning it is PREFERRED over 1917.

    It’s as simple as that.

    And yes, you can game the system, and make sure the other frontrunner doesn’t win. A huge group of voters can conspire together to consistently rank one frontrunner ABOVE or below another.

    For the films that don’t stand a chance in winning Best Picture (Little Women, Marriage Story, Ford v Ferrari), if some voters rank them as #1, how will they rank 1917 and Parasite. That’s the question.

    1. Little Women
    2. 1917
    3. Parasite

    Or

    1. Ford v Ferrari
    2. Parasite
    3. 1917

    If 1917 is consistently ranked ABOVE Parasite on most ballots, it’s winning Best Picture.

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    FairWeatherAffair
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    #1203323534

    Regarding the debate above, is this a case of which is more important to you, the voter: your favorite film winning or your least favorite film losing?

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