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analysis – SAG, BAFTA, GG & BFCA going to different winners

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    KaRol
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    #1204206918

    Since almost all of us are wondering which performance will win this year’s Best Actress, with SAG, BAFTA, GG & BFCA* going to different actresses, I thought I will myself try to find some analogies from the previous years of all those 4 precurors’ existence when all of them had different winners. Sorry if it’s not structured well 😉

    * Unfortunately, in some of the years, BAFTAs were happening after the Oscars or some performances were ineligible there due to the late release date, while BFCA didn’t have nominations announced.

    First, I looked at leading performances’ categories. What is interesting is that in all of those cases Golden Globe winners for performances in comedy or musical weren’t even nominated for Oscars:
    1) in 1996:
    Susan Sarandon won 1st SAG for Dead Man Walking (being nominated for GG drama; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible)
    Emma Thompson won 3rd BAFTA (that were given after the Oscars) for Sense And Sensibility (being nominated for SAG & GG drama, runner-up at BFCA)
    Sharon Stone won 1st GG (drama) for Casino (without any nom for other precursors analyzed here; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible)
    BFCA was won by performance overlooked by Oscars.
    Sarandon was nominated for the 5th time for a performance in movie nominated for 3 other Oscars (director, actor, song)
    Thompson had 1 Oscar already and it was her 4th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 6 other Oscars (picture, supporting actress, screenplay, cinematography, costumes, score)
    Stone was nominated for the 1st time and her nomination was the lone one for the movie.
    2) in 2001:
    SAG was won by performance nominated by Oscars in supporting category
    BAFTA was won by performance overlooked by Oscars
    Tom Hanks won 3rd GG (drama) for Cast Away (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA)
    Russell Crowe won 2nd BFCA for Gladiator (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & GG drama).
    Hanks had 2 Oscars already and it was his 5th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (sound)
    Crowe was nominated for the 2nd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 11 other Oscars (picture, director, supporting actor, screenplay, cinematography, editing, art direction, costumes, score, sound, visual fx).

    In supporting categories, it happened more times than in leading ones:
    1) in 1998:
    Robin Williams won 1st (individual) SAG for Good Will Hunting (being nominated for GG; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible)
    BAFTA was won by performance overlooked by Oscars
    Burt Reynolds won 2nd GG for Boogie Nights (being nominated for SAG & BAFTA; there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    Anthony Hopkins won 1st BFCA for Amistad (being nominated for SAG & GG; BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible).
    Williams was nominated for the 4th time for a performance in a movie nominated for 8 other Oscars (picture, director, actor, supporting actress, screenplay, editing, score, song)
    Reynolds was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 2 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay)
    Hopkins had 1 Oscar already and it was his 4th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 3 other Oscars (cinematography, costumes, score).
    2) in 1999:
    Robert Duvall won 1st SAG for A Civil Action (being nominated for GG; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible)
    Geoffrey Rush won 2nd BAFTA (that were given after the Oscars) for Shakespeare in Love (being nominated for SAG & GG; there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    Ed Harris won 1st GG for The Truman Show (being nominated for BAFTA; there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    Billy Bob Thornton won 1st BFCA for A Simple Plan (being nominated for SAG & GG; BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible).
    Duvall had 1 Oscar already and it was his 6th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (cinematography)
    Rush had 1 Oscar already and it was his 2nd nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 12 other Oscars (picture, director, actress, supporting actress, screenplay, cinematography, editing, art direction, costumes, score, sound, makeup)
    Harris was nominated for the 2nd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 2 other Oscars (director, screenplay)
    Thornton was nominated for the 2nd time (for acting) for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (screenplay).

    this was the 1st time during existence of SAG, BAFTA, GG & BFCA at the same time, that with every of those precursors going to different performers – Oscar eventually went with performer winning none of those…
    James Coburn won Oscar for Affliction (being nominated for SAG; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible).
    Coburn was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (actor).

    3) in 2000:
    Michael Caine won 1st SAG for The Cider House Rules (being nominated for BAFTA & GG; there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    Jude Law won 1st BAFTA (that were given after the Oscars) for The Talented Mr. Ripley (being nominated for GG; there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    Tom Cruise won 3rd GG for Magnolia (being nominated for SAG; there were no BFCA nominees that year, while BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible)
    Michael Clarke Duncan won 1st BFCA for The Green Mile (being nominated for SAG & GG; BAFTAs were given after the Oscars and this movie was probably ineligible).
    Caine had 1 Oscar already and it was his 5th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 6 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, editing, art direction, score)
    Law was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 4 other Oscars (screenplay, art direction, costumes, score)
    Cruise was nominated for the 3rd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 2 other Oscars (screenplay, song)
    Duncan was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 3 other Oscars (picture, screenplay, sound).
    4) in 2001:
    Judi Dench won 1st (individual) SAG for Chocolat (being nominated for BAFTA, GG & BFCA)
    Julie Walters won 2nd BAFTA for Billy Elliot (being nominated for SAG, GG & BFCA)
    Kate Hudson won 1st GG for Almost Famous (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA)
    Frances McDormand won 2nd BFCA for Almost Famous (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & GG).
    Dench had 1 Oscar already and it was her 3rd nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 4 other Oscars (picture, actress, screenplay, score)
    Walters was nominated for the 2nd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 2 other Oscars (director, screenplay)
    Hudson was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 3 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay, editing)
    McDormand had 1 Oscar already and it was her 3rd nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 3 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay, editing).

    this was the 1st time during existence of SAG, BAFTA, GG & BFCA at the same time, that with every of those precursors going to different performers – Oscar eventually went with performer not only that didn’t win any of those, but even weren’t nominated for any of those…
    Marcia Gay Harden won Oscar for Pollock (being submitted in lead for SAG could have cost her the nomination there in supporting, while the movie was probably ineligible at BAFTAs).
    Harden was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (actor).

    5) in 2002:
    Ian McKellen won 1st SAG for The Lord Of the Rings: The Fellowship Of the Ring (being nominated for BAFTA)
    BAFTA was won by performance overlooked by Oscars (but it was Jim Broadbent for different one, so probably this year shouldn’t be included in this analysis)
    Jim Broadbent won 1st GG for Iris (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA)
    Ben Kingsley won 1st BFCA for Sexy Beast (being nominated for SAG & GG).
    McKellen was nominated for the 2nd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 12 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing, art direction, costumes, score, song, sound, visual fx, makeup)
    Broadbent was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 2 other Oscars (actress, supporting actress)
    Kinglsey had 1 Oscar already and it was his 3rd nomination and his nomination was the lone one for the movie.
    6) in 2008:
    Ruby Dee won 1st SAG for American Gangster (without any nom for other precursors analyzed here)
    Tilda Swinton won 1st BAFTA for Michael Clayton (being nominated for SAG, GG & BFCA)
    Cate Blanchett won 2nd GG for I’m Not There (being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA)
    Amy Ryan won 1st BFCA for Gone Baby Gone (being nominated for SAG & GG).
    Dee was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 1 other Oscar (art direction)
    Swinton was nominated for the 1st time for a performance in a movie nominated for 6 other Oscars (picture, director, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, score)
    Blanchett had 1 Oscar already and it was her 4th nomination and her nomination was the lone one for the movie
    Ryan was nominated for the 1st time and her nomination was the lone one for the movie.
    7) in 2021 will be a part of the above historic data:
    Viola Davis won 5th (individual) SAG for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (being nominated for GG drama & BFCA; BAFTAs nominees were juried)
    Frances McDormand won 2nd BAFTA for Nomadland (being nominated for SAG, GG drama & BFCA)
    Andra Day won 1st GG (drama) for The United States vs. Billie Holiday (being nominated for BFCA; BAFTAs nominees were juried but she did not even end up on the longlist)
    Carey Mulligan won 1st BFCA for Promising Young Woman (being nominated for SAG & GG drama; BAFTAs nominees were juried).
    Davis had 1 Oscar already and it was her 4th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 4 other Oscars (actor, art direction, costumes, makeup)
    McDormand had 2 Oscars already and it was her 6th nomination for a performance in a movie nominated for 5 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing)
    Day was nominated for the 1st time and her nomination was the lone one for the movie
    Mulligan was nominated for the 2nd time for a performance in a movie nominated for 4 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, editing).

    Vanessa Kirby didn’t win any of the analyzed precursors for Pieces Of a Woman, but she is the only one of the two performers to score nominations from all of tchem. unfortunately (I think she deserves to win and if I was an Oscar voter – my vote here would go to her) she does not seem to follow the footsteps of James Coburn or Marcia Gay Harden as she misses one element crucial in their cases – there is no acting nominee from her movie nominated for Oscar, so she is the lone nominee from it.
    in the analyzed cases above, only Geoffrey Rush hit all of the precursors without winning any of it and he still was in a better position, as his movie garnered 2 other Oscar nominations (art direction, costumes), and he wasn’t the lone nominee for Quills at SAG, BAFTA, GG & BFCA too (as is the case with Kirby).

    Andra Day seems to be out of this contention for one reason – if you win one of those precursors in such „split years”, you cannot be the lone Oscar nominee from your movie… just look at Stone for Casino (that won GG drama too), Kingsley for Sexy Beast, Blanchett for I’m Not There or Ryan for Gone Baby Gone.

    Compare GG winners in this analysis by some specifics:
    1) Stone for Casino
    – won 1st GG, without any nom for other precursors analyzed here (there were no BFCA nominees that year, probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her nomination was the lone one for the movie
    2) Reynolds for Boogie Nights
    – won 2nd GG, being nominated for SAG & BAFTA (there were no BFCA nominees that year),
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – his movie was nominated for 2 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay)
    3) Harris for The Truman Show
    – won 1st GG, being nominated for BAFTA (there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    – nominated for the 2nd time
    – his movie was nominated for 2 other Oscars (director, screenplay)
    4) Cruise for Magnolia
    – won 3rd GG, being nominated for SAG (there were no BFCA nominees that year, probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 3rd time
    – his movie was nominated for 2 other Oscars (screenplay, song)
    5) Hanks for Cast Away
    – won 3rd GG, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA
    – 2 Oscars already and it was his 5th nomination
    – his movie was nominated for 1 other Oscar (sound)
    6) Hudson for Almost Famous
    – won 1st GG, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her movie was nominated for 3 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay, editing)
    7) Broadbent for Iris
    – won 1st GG, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA (won BAFTA for different role)
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – his movie was nominated for 2 other Oscars (actress, supporting actress)

    8) Blanchett for I’m Not There
    – won 2nd GG, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & BFCA
    – 1 Oscar already and it was her 4th nomination
    – her nomination was the lone one for the movie
    9) Day for The United States vs. Billie Holiday
    – won 1st GG, being nominated for BFCA
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her nomination was the lone one for the movie.
    Once again, comparing those specifics, it shows that Day does not stand a great chance at winning Oscar…

    Compare SAG winners in this analysis by some specifics:
    1) Sarandon for Dead Man Walking
    – won 1st SAG, being nominated for GG drama (there were no BFCA nominees that year, probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 5th time
    – her movie was nominated for 3 other Oscars (director, actor, song)

    2) Williams for Good Will Hunting
    – won 1st (individual) SAG, being nominated for GG (there were no BFCA nominees that year, probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 4th time
    – his movie was nominated for 8 other Oscars (picture, director, actor, supporting actress, screenplay, editing, score, song)

    3) Duvall for A Civil Action
    – won 1st SAG, being nominated for GG (there were no BFCA nominees that year, probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – 1 Oscar already and it was his 6th nomination
    – his movie was nominated for 1 other Oscar (cinematography)
    4) Caine for The Cider House Rules
    – won 1st SAG, being nominated for BAFTA & GG (there were no BFCA nominees that year)
    – 1 Oscar already and it was his 5th nomination
    – his movie was nominated for 6 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, editing, art direction, score)

    5) Dench for Chocolat
    – won 1st (individual) SAG, being nominated for BAFTA, GG & BFCA
    – 1 Oscar already and it was her 3rd nomination
    – her movie was nominated for 4 other Oscars (picture, actress, screenplay, score)
    6) McKellen for The Lord Of the Rings: The Fellowship Of the Ring
    – won 1st SAG, being nominated for BAFTA
    – nominated for the 2nd time
    – his movie was nominated for 12 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing, art direction, costumes, score, song, sound, visual fx, makeup)
    7) Dee for American Gangster
    – won 1st SAG, without any nom for other precursors analyzed here
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her movie was nominated for 1 other Oscar (art direction)
    8) Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    – won 5th (individual) SAG, being nominated for GG drama & BFCA (BAFTAs nominees were juried)
    – 1 Oscar already and it was her 4th nomination
    – her movie was nominated for 4 other Oscars (actor, art direction, costumes, makeup)

    What do the SAG winners here, that went to win the Oscar too, have in common?
    1) their movie having more than 1 other Oscar nom and among them Oscar nom for directing (Sarandon, Williams, Caine, but also McKellen)
    2) their movie having more than 1 other GG nom and among them GG nom for screenplay (Sarandon, Williams, Caine)
    3) their SAG nom being not the only one for their movie (Sarandon, Williams, Caine, but also Dench, McKellen, Dee & Davis; from those – Sarandon, Williams, Caine, but also Dench, McKellen & Dee won their 1st individual SAG)
    Comparing those specifics, it shows that Davis does not neccessary stand a good chance at winning Oscar…

    Compare BFCA winners in this analysis by some specifics:
    1) Hopkins for Amistad
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG (probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – 1 Oscar already and it was his 4th nomination
    – his movie was nominated for 3 other Oscars (cinematography, costumes, score).
    2) Thornton for A Simple Plan
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG (probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 2nd time (for acting)
    – his movie was nominated for 1 other Oscar (screenplay).
    3) Duncan for The Green Mile
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG (probably ineligible at BAFTAs)
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – his movie was nominated for 3 other Oscars (picture, screenplay, sound)
    4) Crowe for Gladiator
    – won 2nd BFCA, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & GG drama
    – nominated for the 2nd time
    – his movie was nominated for 11 other Oscars (picture, director, supporting actor, screenplay, cinematography, editing, art direction, costumes, score, sound, visual fx)

    5) McDormand for Almost Famous
    – won 2nd BFCA, being nominated for SAG, BAFTA & GG
    – 1 Oscar already and it was her 3rd nomination
    – her movie was nominated for 3 other Oscars (supporting actress, screenplay, editing)
    6) Kingsley for Sexy Beast
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG
    – 1 Oscar already and it was his 3rd nomination
    – his nomination was the lone one for the movie
    7) Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her nomination was the lone one for the movie
    8) Mulligan for Promising Young Woman
    – won 1st BFCA, being nominated for SAG & GG drama (BAFTAs nominees were juried)
    – nominated for the 2nd time
    – her movie was nominated for 4 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, editing).

    What did the BAFTA winner here, that went to win the Oscar too, had, that no other BAFTA winners that lost Oscar, didn’t?
    1) his movie having more than 1 other Oscar nom and among them Oscar nom for directing (Crowe, but also Mulligan)
    2) his movie having more than 1 other GG nom and among them GG nom for director (Crowe, Hopkins, but also Mulligan)
    3) his movie having more than 1 BAFTA nom and among them BAFTA noms for film, editing & screenplay (Crowe, but also Mulligan)
    Comparing those specifics, it shows that Mulligan does stand a good chance at winning Oscar…

    Also worth noting is that Mulligan got the same exact precurors (BFCA win and SAG & GG nominations) as Ryan for Gone Baby Gone, Kinglsey for Sexy Beast, Duncan for The Green Mile, Thornton for A Simple Plan, Hopkins for Amistad and none of them eventually won the Oscar…
    but this year’s BAFTA noms in acting categories were juried and if they weren’t, Mulligan would definetely be Best Actress nominee there and this would change the comparison to McDormand for Almost Famous and Crowe for Gladiator (BFCA win and BAFTA, SAG & GG nominations).

    Compare BAFTA winners (only those that occured before the Oscars) in this analysis by some specifics:
    1) Walters for Billy Elliot
    – won 2nd BAFTA, being nominated for SAG, GG & BFCA
    – nominated for the 2nd time
    – her movie was nominated for 2 other Oscars (director, screenplay)
    2) Swinton for Michael Clayton
    – won 1st BAFTA, being nominated for SAG, GG & BFCA
    – nominated for the 1st time
    – her movie was nominated for 6 other Oscars (picture, director, actor, supporting actor, screenplay, score)

    3) McDormand for Nomadland
    – won 2nd BAFTA, being nominated for SAG, GG drama & BFCA
    – 2 Oscars already and it was her 6th nomination
    – her movie was nominated for 5 other Oscars (picture, director, screenplay, cinematography, editing)

    What did the BFCA winner here, that went to win the Oscar too, had, that no other BFCA winners that lost Oscar, didn’t?
    1) her movie having more than 1 other Oscar nom and among them Oscar noms for picture & directing & screenplay (Swinton, but also McDormand)
    2) her movie having more than 1 BAFTA nom and among them BAFTA noms for editing, screenplay and at least 2 more actors (Swinton, but also Walters)
    3) her movie having more than 1 other GG nom and among them GG nom for other actors (Swinton)
    4) her SAG nom being not the only one for their movie (Swinton, but also Walters)
    Comparing those specifics, it shows that McDormand does stand a chance at winning Oscar…

    McDormand got the same exact precursors as Swinton for Michael Clayton and Walters for Billy Elliot (BAFTA win and SAG, GG & BFCA nominations), as well as Thompson for Sense And Sensibility (but that year of course, BAFTAs were awarded after the Oscars). Swinton and Walters didn’t have 2 Oscars under their belt, Thompson had 1. Actually I see much more in common between McDormand’s BAFTA win and Thompson’s BAFTA win… no SAG winner, GG winner & BFCA winner got BAFTA nom each of those years…

    It would be fun to have a tie here for the 2nd time only in history… But what I think would be quite fantastic is (yeah, I know it is more of a fantasy theory than something that can really happen) if this tie would happen with two black actresses 🙂
    This would be a double “history moment” or “history moment” with a capital H 😉

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    Sneza
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    #1204210916

    I have Viola Davis winning this one Lookig at your analysis, you’re a cutting off Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby. So who do you have as the last woman standing. I think in the US SAG will have more weight over BAFTA. So I believe Davis will truimph over McDormand. Mulligan failing at the GG and SAG just put her out of contention.

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    KaRol
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    #1204210965

    I have Viola Davis winning this one Lookig at your analysis, you’re a cutting off Andra Day, Vanessa Kirby. So who do you have as the last woman standing. I think in the US SAG will have more weight over BAFTA. So I believe Davis will truimph over McDormand. Mulligan failing at the GG and SAG just put her out of contention.

    I believe Mulligan has a real chance to prevail in this race.
    Davis’ SAG win was her 5th individual award from this group, so I think they just love her no matter what and are probably not very objective…
    also I somehow cannot imagine actors from a movie not nominated for Best Picture winning both lead categories… of course, it would be quite symbolic after BLM culmination last year and it definetely can somehow happen, but Davis as previous Oscar winner (winning just 4 years ago) has to compete against another previous Oscar winner (winning just 3 years ago her 2nd trophy).

    failing to win GG and SAG in a year when previous Oscar winners are very much in this race, does not neccessarily have to be the big obstacle… just look at Russell Crowe winning 🙂

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