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Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney has swept all the major acting awards this season, taking home the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG. We still have the BAFTAs to go.
Does anybody here think these are all locks? Do you think we will see anybody not named Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, and Janney win an acting Oscar?
BEST ACTOR
Oldman – Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and 12 critics circle trophies
Chalamet – 9 critics circle wins
Day-Lewis and Kaluuya – 4 critics circle wins a piece.BEST ACTRESS
McDormand – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 10 critics circle wins.
Hawkins – 14 critics circle wins.
Ronan – 8 critics circle wins and the Globe
Robbie – 2 critics circle wins
Streep – National Board of Review winBEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Rockwell – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 11 critics circle awards
Dafoe – 22 critics circle awards
Harrelson and Jenkins – 1 a pieceBEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Janney – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 9 critics circle wins
Metcalf – 25 critics circle wins
Mansville – London Film CriticsOldman has won the most major and critics circle awards.
Hawkins, Dafoe, and Metcalf won the most critics circle awards, but came up short in the major categories.In my view, the only spot NOT locked up is Supporting Actress. I think Mansville could be our “surprise winner” if she wins the BAFTA. The reason: I, Tonya didn’t get a screenplay or picture nomination. But regardless of what the BAFTA says, I am still sticking with Janney here.
Note: For the critics circle prizes, I did not count online, festivals, Dublin, women’s, black, or gay groups. Nothing about those people, I just didn’t count them.
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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.I disagree with the ideology that Janney’s performance is transformative, it’s her character on Mom to the worst degree. Janney’s performance is a one note cartoon, but that’s enough to skate by in the Supporting Actress category. The large reason for her win is that she has the larger industry due factor, and now it’s time to pay the bill. Metcalf gives the all encompassing performance – and is actually someone who could exist in reality. Janney is a cartoon that is barely shaded and lacks any sense of dimension – she’s a facsimile of a child’s worst nightmare, and just as crudely drawn.
As to the question at hand – it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Oldmand and McDormand don’t win. At some point there should have been a shakeup in the precursors and nothing’s happened. Similarly Janney’s been pretty unstoppable on the circuit with all of her wins.
Plummer probably has the biggest change to spoil at BAFTA – but 3 Billboard over performed there. Rockwell also defeated Plummer at the Globes so it’s likely he will prevail at the Academy if Plummer doesn’t win there. I think Supporting Actor is really the only thing that could change, but that’s dependent on someone else winning BAFTA.
ReplyCopy URLBAFTA awarding the likes of Hawkins, Grant and/or Manville would at least create a pothole for McDormand, Rockwell and Janney to drive over en route to the Oscars. The latter still, however, will be overwhelming favorites. I think Janney’s most vulnerable, given the lack of I, Tonya in Best Picture and a mild backlash against her awards sweep.
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ReplyCopy URLOldman and McDormand are locked in my opinion. Dafoe and Metcalf remain in the race, but only just. I think both of those races would have been quite close at SAG. Dafoe could win if Harrelson siphons votes from Rockwell (Harrelson is pretty popular, and this could happen). I don’t buy much into this supposed “backlash” against Three Billboards, that’s a thing that will concern bloggers and perhaps the media, but voters won’t think like that. Metcalf could win if they really embrace Lady Bird and want to give the film something, and suspect that Gerwig will lose her Original Screenplay bid (there is no way she is winning Director). I don’t think Manville has a chance despite what other posters say – a lot of voters will see her as still largely unknown actress and a left-field nomination in the first place (even though it is deserved by all accounts).
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