February 1, 2018 at 5:09 pm #1202485369
Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, and Allison Janney has swept all the major acting awards this season, taking home the Globe, Critics Choice, and SAG. We still have the BAFTAs to go.
Does anybody here think these are all locks? Do you think we will see anybody not named Oldman, McDormand, Rockwell, and Janney win an acting Oscar?
Oldman – Globe, Critics Choice, SAG, and 12 critics circle trophies
Chalamet – 9 critics circle wins
Day-Lewis and Kaluuya – 4 critics circle wins a piece.
McDormand – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 10 critics circle wins.
Hawkins – 14 critics circle wins.
Ronan – 8 critics circle wins and the Globe
Robbie – 2 critics circle wins
Streep – National Board of Review win
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Rockwell – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 11 critics circle awards
Dafoe – 22 critics circle awards
Harrelson and Jenkins – 1 a piece
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Janney – Critics Choice, Globe, SAG, and 9 critics circle wins
Metcalf – 25 critics circle wins
Mansville – London Film Critics
Oldman has won the most major and critics circle awards.
Hawkins, Dafoe, and Metcalf won the most critics circle awards, but came up short in the major categories.
In my view, the only spot NOT locked up is Supporting Actress. I think Mansville could be our “surprise winner” if she wins the BAFTA. The reason: I, Tonya didn’t get a screenplay or picture nomination. But regardless of what the BAFTA says, I am still sticking with Janney here.
Note: For the critics circle prizes, I did not count online, festivals, Dublin, women’s, black, or gay groups. Nothing about those people, I just didn’t count them.February 1, 2018 at 5:38 pm #1202485392
I’d say the acting categories are pretty close to being locked, especially Actor and Sup. Actor… I do think Janney will win Sup. Actress, but the only one who can stop her is Metcalfe. Sorry Manville has no shot (even though she is the only good thing in that atrocious film.)
As for Actress, my brain says McDormand… but my heart says will have a surprise and it will be the incredibly deserving Sally Hawkins.February 1, 2018 at 5:39 pm #1202485393
The only excitement is who will win Best Picture and Director. Maybe original screenplay.February 1, 2018 at 7:04 pm #1202485483
The only excitement is who will win Best Picture and Director. Maybe original screenplay.
Del Toro has built up too much momentum and passion for Nolan or anyone else to take him down, so there is no excitement there. Original Screenplay and especially Picture have a ton of excitement, although that could all vanish after WGA and Bafta reveal their picks.February 1, 2018 at 7:31 pm #1202485526
I’m predicting Metcalf. Fight me.February 1, 2018 at 7:37 pm #1202485538
I’m predicting Metcalf. Fight me.
Okay, bitch you’re f**king crazy! Lady Bird could realistically win nothing at the Oscars! It could lose Picture to PGA and Critics Choice winner The Shape of Water, it WILL lose Actress to consensus favorite McDormand, Screenplay it could win but Three Billboards’ script is looked at as more “important” with more “snob appeal” for better or for worse. Metcalf’s last stand was at SAG. There is no way she is beating Janney at Bafta, since I, Tonya got 5 nominations there including Costume Design and Lady Bird got just 3, not even making the cut for Best Picture! Janney’s film will be where the Oscar voters decide to reward I, Tonya, since that film has received so much buzz it won’t go aways with nothing. Janney’s actual performance is much more transformative while Metcalf is too subtle for some. Need I continue?February 1, 2018 at 7:57 pm #1202485569
I disagree with the ideology that Janney’s performance is transformative, it’s her character on Mom to the worst degree. Janney’s performance is a one note cartoon, but that’s enough to skate by in the Supporting Actress category. The large reason for her win is that she has the larger industry due factor, and now it’s time to pay the bill. Metcalf gives the all encompassing performance – and is actually someone who could exist in reality. Janney is a cartoon that is barely shaded and lacks any sense of dimension – she’s a facsimile of a child’s worst nightmare, and just as crudely drawn.
As to the question at hand – it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Oldmand and McDormand don’t win. At some point there should have been a shakeup in the precursors and nothing’s happened. Similarly Janney’s been pretty unstoppable on the circuit with all of her wins.
Plummer probably has the biggest change to spoil at BAFTA – but 3 Billboard over performed there. Rockwell also defeated Plummer at the Globes so it’s likely he will prevail at the Academy if Plummer doesn’t win there. I think Supporting Actor is really the only thing that could change, but that’s dependent on someone else winning BAFTA.
February 1, 2018 at 8:04 pm #1202485579
- This reply was modified 1 year, 6 months ago by Malcolm Dunbar.
I feel like one of them will lose unexpectedly, but I don’t know who.February 1, 2018 at 9:05 pm #1202485628
I still don’t think Margot Robbie is out of this race. Would love if either she or Plummer got the gold as neither has won a televised award (yet). Start a new trend.February 1, 2018 at 11:15 pm #1202485690
Christopher Plummer did win a televised award. Best Supporting Actor… 2011… Beginners. It was televised.
I'm not perfect, but I keep trying.February 2, 2018 at 3:50 am #1202485767
Yes. It’s over. Wait until that night and hope for surprises. But don’t predict them it’s not the right thing to do at this point.
And if Janney has done this type of performance before, so has Metcalf (and McDormand, and Oldman). Don’t be ridiculous.February 2, 2018 at 4:31 am #1202485773
BAFTA awarding the likes of Hawkins, Grant and/or Manville would at least create a pothole for McDormand, Rockwell and Janney to drive over en route to the Oscars. The latter still, however, will be overwhelming favorites. I think Janney’s most vulnerable, given the lack of I, Tonya in Best Picture and a mild backlash against her awards sweep.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis (and my annual Oscar predictions contest), please visit me at The Awards Connection!February 2, 2018 at 5:36 am #1202485799
Oldman and McDormand are locked in my opinion. Dafoe and Metcalf remain in the race, but only just. I think both of those races would have been quite close at SAG. Dafoe could win if Harrelson siphons votes from Rockwell (Harrelson is pretty popular, and this could happen). I don’t buy much into this supposed “backlash” against Three Billboards, that’s a thing that will concern bloggers and perhaps the media, but voters won’t think like that. Metcalf could win if they really embrace Lady Bird and want to give the film something, and suspect that Gerwig will lose her Original Screenplay bid (there is no way she is winning Director). I don’t think Manville has a chance despite what other posters say – a lot of voters will see her as still largely unknown actress and a left-field nomination in the first place (even though it is deserved by all accounts).
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