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Hi. Can you guys post your predictions here? The BAFTA longlist reaction thread is almost full, and I really don’t know how to do this.
So just drop your guesses here, and I’ll base my answers off of your wisdom. LOL. My guesses as of now. Very wild.
Best Picture
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryPredicting No Time to Die because it’s the last Craig film, it was a pretty good movie, and it’s British as hell. I’m surprised movies like After Love and Ali & Ava aren’t here.
Best Director
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Julia Ducournau, Titane
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Aleem Khan, After Love
Denis Villeneuve, DuneBest Lead Actor
Adeel Akhtar, Ali and Ava
Daniel Craig, No Time to Die
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick Boom
Stephen Graham, Boiling Point
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of MacbethBest Lead Actress
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Rachel Zegler, West Side StoryBest Supporting Actor
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the DogBest Supporting Actress
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Ruth Negga, Passing
Vinette Robinson, Boiling PointI can’t even begin to guess the rest. LOL. Leaning towards all the NTTD noms, Green Knight, etc.
ReplyI just love movies. And awards.
I’m surprised movies like After Love and Ali & Ava aren’t here.
Rocks wasn’t long-listed here last year so I don’t think it’s too surprising. The former film seems to be on a similar level of visibility to it whilst the latter film hasn’t even been released in the UK yet.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
Rocks wasn’t long-listed here last year so I don’t think it’s too surprising. The former film seems to be on a similar level of visibility to it whilst the latter film hasn’t even been released in the UK yet.
Ahhh.. would be interested to see your lists when you’re ready. It’s probably in the other thread but… just in case you update your predictions.
I just love movies. And awards.
I’m pretty confident Renate Reinsve is getting in. No way the jury will pass up on the only non-english language performance in the longlists.
Thompson, Renate and Scanlan are locks as jury picks. Stewart, Zegler and Colman could sneak it as jury picks.
Gaga and Kidman must make top 2 to be nominated (and one of them will).
I remember last year when the jury randomly nominated Clarke Peters for Da 5 Bloods. Without taking another look at those longlists, it makes me wonder if they could do something similar this time in the acting categories and go for a less obvious pick from a film with multiple contenders. David Alvarez or Al Pacino?
BEST FILM
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryDIRECTOR
Aleem Khan, After Love
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Joanna Hogg, The Souvenir Pt. 2
Steven Speilberg, West Side Story
Janicza Bravo, ZolaLEADING ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Joanna Scanlan, After Love
Tessa Thompson, PassingLEADING ACTOR
Riz Ahmed, Encounter
Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava
Daniel Craig, No Time To Die
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Stephen Graham, Boiling Point
Will Smith, King RichardSUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Ann Dowd, Mass
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Ruth Negga, Passing
Vinette Robinson, Boiling PointSUPPORTING ACTOR
Benico del Toro, The French Dispatch
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the DogORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
After Love
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
Licorice PizzaADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
The Lost Daughter
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryCASTING
After Love
Belfast
CODA
The Hand of God
The Power of the DogCINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side StoryCOSTUME DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
West Side StoryEDITING
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
West Side StoryMAKE UP & HAIR
Coming 2 America
Cruella
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
No Time To DieORIGINAL SCORE
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
No Time To Die
The Power of the DogPRODUCTION DESIGN
Belfast
Dune
The French Dispatch
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side StorySPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune
Free Guy
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten RingsSOUND
Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
West Side StoryFILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Petite Maman
The Worst Person in the WorldDOCUMENTARY
Flee
The Rescue
The Sparks Brothers
Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
The Velvet UndergroundANIMATED FILM
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchell’s vs. The MachinesOUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast
Boiling Point
The Duke
House of Gucci
The Electrical Life of Louis Wain
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
PassingOUTSTANDING BRITISH DEBUT
After Love
Boiling Point
Censor
Passing
SweetheartDaniel Craig needs to be top 2 to get nominated because a jury isn’t going to go for a performance like that.
Best Picture:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryBest Director:
After Love
Belfast
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryBest Actress:
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava
Joanna Scanlan, After LoveBest Actor:
Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava
Daniel Craig, No Time To Die
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Stephen Graham, Boiling PointBest Supporting Actress:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in SohoBest Supporting Actor:
David Alvarez, West Side Story
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the DogBest British Film:
After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast
Boiling Point
Last Night in Soho
No Time To DieBest Adapted Screenplay:
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
Passing
The Power of the Dog
West Side StoryBest Original Screenplay:
After Love
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Last Night in Soho
The Worst Person in the WorldBest Cinematography:
Belfast
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side StoryBest Editing:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
West Side StoryBest Costume Design:
Cyrano
Dune
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
West Side StoryBest Makeup & Hairstyling:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Last Night in Soho
West Side StoryBest Production Design:
Cyrano
Dune
The Last Duel
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side StoryBest Original Score:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
No Time To Die
SpencerBest Sound:
Belfast
Dune
Last Night in Soho
No Time To Die
West Side StoryBest Special Visual Effects:
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi…
The Suicide SquadThe other thread is full so I’ll just post in here from now on haha.
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Power of the Dog – Probably winning.
2. The Lost Daughter – The Lost Daughter has the right amount of visibility and support and Gyllenhaal’s screenplay is at the crux of the film’s acclaim. Could upset if it lands in best film although that does seem unlikely at this stage. Perhaps also the most “adapted” screenplay in contention here.
3. CODA – Although BAFTA have gone for darker and grittier choices in the past in these screenplay categories, they have gone for more crowd pleasing “lighter” films (like Booksmart, Paddington 2) and this ultimately is an auteur driven indie so there’s plenty of appeal here. CODA is the type of film that I can imagine under-performing with the actual nominations but its performance on the long-lists does make me feel content having it in my predictions here.
4. West Side Story – The writers branch just showed last year how snobbish they can be towards theatre adaptations that don’t have “as much adaptation” as other scripts in the field so I don’t feel as confident as I do at West Side Story‘s screenplay getting in at the Oscars. That being said Tony Kushner’s name alone is quite respectable and the film is the most long-listed film of the year so it would be crazy for me to predict it getting snubbed here lol.
5. No Time to Die – Like The Dig it just feels too big to ignore in a category like this (even if it misses something like best film last year). The film itself was well received and BAFTA did nominate Casino Royale in this category so it’s not as if there is some sort of genre bias there. Helps that it has quite a prestigious pedigree (PWB!)
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6. Drive My Car – I don’t feel the slightest bit confident predicting this to miss because critically raved films not in the English language have shown up here before and this film seems primed to break into both BAFTA and Oscar directing races. But the field does feel somewhat competitive and the film itself missing the best film long-list when Another Round made it in last year makes me wonder if it is seen widely enough.
7. Dune – With its acting shut out I’m unsure whether the film itself has enough consensus to make it into best film but I can most certainly see its screenplay slipping in because of how much sci-fi/fantasy films have been embraced by BAFTA in the past. If Inception can garner enough support to get nominated here, why can’t Dune (unless of course the field is too competitive)?
8. Passing – A high brow “critics choice” and Rebecca Hall is the type of auteur we’ve seen show up in this category in the past. That being said do people really feel as much passion towards Passing‘s screenplay as its other aspects (I say this as someone who loved the film)? Both the LFCC and the Spirits snubbed Hall’s screenplay. Feels like a film that the BAFTA membership overall could have taken to more than the AMPAS but at the same time I’m not entirely convinced Tessa Thompson wasn’t a jury save in the first round of voting.
9. Tick, Tick…BOOM! – Was long-listed in best film and it is a film about a playwright so there could be some interesting appeal here. Then again with how Tick, Tick…BOOM! performed on these long-lists, I just wonder whether it has only gotten in here because of visibility rather than overall passion for the film.
10. House of Gucci – Well it’s clear people in the British film industry loved this movie. Just like Last Night in Soho on the original screenplay side (perhaps even more so) and with The Mauritanian last year, the love for the film amongst the entire membership might just be too big for it to not translate here.
11. The Tragedy of Macbeth – Shakespeare or not and whether it over-performs (which is what I’m predicting in other categories) or not, I just don’t find it convincing that the same branch who snubbed Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is going to take to a screenplay of a Shakespeare adaptation with not much adaptation. We’re not in 1996 anymore.
12. The Last Duel – There seems to be a lot of love for this film’s screenplay and it does strike me as something that could be the film that is the “this had Oscar buzz but still performs well at the BAFTAs” we see almost every year. Then again that doesn’t seem like an accurate statement to describe this film when its female lead who is one of the most respected and popular actors of her generation in this country missed the long-list completely.
13-15. Cyrano, The Green Knight and The Eyes of Tammy Faye – Congratulations on participating!
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
Best Picture
1)The Power of the Dog
2)Belfast
3)Dune
4)West Side Story5)CODA or No Time to Die or House of Gucci
I think one of No Time to Die and House of Gucci will get into BP, as far as I’m concerned, Belfast, Power of the Dog and West Side Story are locked. A tech-heavy film and a commercially successful comedy/drama will probably take the remaining two spots, so far dune and don’t look up seem like the perfect option, but I’m not sure about putting only one British film on the list, so probably one of NTtD and HoG will get in.
yeah fells that is for gucci the last spot but many thought the same for the globes but CODA gets in
I remember last year when the jury randomly nominated Clarke Peters for Da 5 Bloods. Without taking another look at those longlists, it makes me wonder if they could do something similar this time in the acting categories and go for a less obvious pick from a film with multiple contenders. David Alvarez or Al Pacino?
Alvarez is likely getting imo but not for similar reasons that Peters did. Peters was journeyman character actor for years, with both a performance and a film that a juries would eat up. Additionally, his other shortlisted co-star was Boseman (whom was near guaranteed a nom in lead), that made him the easy choice. Had anyone of Lewis, Majors, or Whitlock also been shorlisted, I’m not sure he would’ve been the obvious jury pick.
Vis-à-vis Pacino, I’m doubtful at him being top 2 and his performance isn’t one that inspires passion with a jury vote.
Best Picture: Belfast Don’t Look Up The Lost Daughter The Power of the Dog West Side Story Best Director: After Love Belfast Drive My Car The Lost Daughter The Power of the Dog West Side Story Best Actress: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter Lady Gaga, House of Gucci Jennifer Hudson, Respect Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava Joanna Scanlan, After Love Best Actor: Adeel Akhtar, Ali & Ava Daniel Craig, No Time To Die Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog Adam Driver, House of Gucci Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! Stephen Graham, Boiling Point Best Supporting Actress: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter Ariana DeBose, West Side Story Judi Dench, Belfast Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho Best Supporting Actor: David Alvarez, West Side Story Jamie Dornan, Belfast Mike Faist, West Side Story Ciaran Hinds, Belfast Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog Best British Film: After Love Ali & Ava Belfast Boiling Point Last Night in Soho No Time To Die Best Adapted Screenplay: Drive My Car The Lost Daughter Passing The Power of the Dog West Side Story Best Original Screenplay: After Love Belfast Don’t Look Up Last Night in Soho The Worst Person in the World Best Cinematography: Belfast Last Night in Soho No Time To Die The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story Best Editing: Belfast Don’t Look Up Last Night in Soho No Time To Die West Side Story Best Costume Design: Cyrano Dune House of Gucci Last Night in Soho West Side Story Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Cruella Cyrano Dune Last Night in Soho West Side Story Best Production Design: Cyrano Dune The Last Duel The Tragedy of Macbeth West Side Story Best Original Score: Don’t Look Up Dune The French Dispatch No Time To Die Spencer Best Sound: Belfast Dune Last Night in Soho No Time To Die West Side Story Best Special Visual Effects: Dune The Matrix Resurrections No Time To Die Shang-Chi… The Suicide Squad
I would really recommend putting Tessa Thompson in Actress, Denzel Washington in Actor, and Ruth Negga and Vinette Robinson in Supporting Actress.
• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.
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