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BAFTA 2022 Nomination Predictions

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    estrelas
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    #1204732248

    Anyone who doesn’t have Ruth or Vinette in Supporting Actress, is on crack. They’re locked huns.

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204732410

    Has anyone seen Boiling Point? I absolutely love Stephen Graham, I think he’s one of the best actors in the world today. But the trailer looked a bit meh.

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204732656

    I really liked it. It’s essentially The Office but slowly turns into Uncut Gems, and it does for hospitality service what Jaws does for sharks.

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    Stefania
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    #1204732680

    Has anyone seen Boiling Point? I absolutely love Stephen Graham, I think he’s one of the best actors in the world today. But the trailer looked a bit meh.

    I just watched it. It’s really good! Both Stephen Graham and Vinette Robinson are  amazing: I hope they get nominated. It’s a one-take movie set during a stressful evening of a chef and his staff. It’s like “Pig”, but directed by the Safdies.

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    Craig Kell
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    #1204733291

    Has anyone seen Boiling Point? I absolutely love Stephen Graham, I think he’s one of the best actors in the world today. But the trailer looked a bit meh.

    Yes I’ve seen it twice now, it’s brilliant.

    I actually went to the live Q+A (attended by Graham and director Philip Barantini) for it in Liverpool the other night.

    Got a photo with Graham that has made my year already! 😬

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    String Cheese Theory
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    #1204733297

    You lot with your reviews! Amazing.

    “Babette’s Feast for meth addicts, five stars!”

    “Stephen Graham leave Jon Favreau beheaded in a ditch, a masterpiece.”

    Single-take shots in high stress settings tend to make me nauseous but then so did Uncut Gems which was torture to watch but I liked it. 😉

    Bill Hader and Barry in everything (2 babka)
    The Great - Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult and comedy writing and directing

    Severance in drama series, writing, Adam Scott for best actor, Ben Stiller for drama directing, and the whole cast in supporting.

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    m_butterfly
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    #1204733349

    I loved Boiling Point! One of the most stressing movies I’ve ever seen lol.

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    wolfali
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    #1204734035

    Supporting Actor

    BAFTA top 2 predictions in bold.

    1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog – Locked and waiting.

    2. Troy Kotsur, CODA – We know how much passion his performance drives and especially in a field like this, I would be surprised if a jury with a diversity quota would snub a deaf actor in a Sundance indie. Probably not one of the membership top 2 though considering Matlin missed the long-list.

    3. Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon – There’s always a chance the jury could just not to take this film at all (although like with Kotsur, I don’t know how that could be in this field with the nature of the film and how much people love it). But in a field like this I do feel content predicting a child actor with some of the best notices in this category considering how well they did last year in each acting category.

    4. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast – The fact he managed to make it in with the London film critics whilst Balfe got snubbed tells me he’s probably in and I do expect the BAFTA membership to be warmer on Belfast than the British critics and the American film industry will be so it makes sense for me to at least consider him being in the top 2. That being said I wasn’t expecting him to miss at SAG which does make me wonder if he’s as safe as we think. 

    5. David Alvarez, West Side Story – There’s something about this performance that just feels jury friendly even though the film isn’t really something I can imagine a jury going all out for. Alvarez’s performance is quite showy, he’s a newcomer and he’s the only poc actor in this category. I can see it being a Dominique Fishback/Clarke Peters getting in without LaKeith Stanfield/Delroy Lindo type of situation.

    6. Benicio del Toro, The French Dispatch – I have him in my predictions purely because out of the remaining contenders he makes the most sense but at the same time I have almost zero confidence in this prediction. Whilst Del Toro’s performance (and that of the The French Dispatch‘s ensemble) is quite good, it’s not a very actor driven film and the film itself may come off as quite stale and the actors roles as quite slight to some members of the jury. Likewise I’m unsure whether an Academy Award and BAFTA winning actor is someone a jury would consider an underdog.

    ——————————————————————————————-

    7. Mike Faist, West Side Story – To say this performance has a lot of passion would be an under-statement and Faist being a newcomer can only help him but I honestly don’t know why I don’t feel confident enough to slot him into my predictions. He doesn’t feel like someone who would be one of the jury’s “cool and niche picks” (although I guess they don’t have many of those to choose from in this year’s field) and part of me wonders if he’s someone who just has more consensus than individual passion. I don’t like basing my predictions on an actors’ role because I believe that when nominating and awarding performances, awards voters in whatever form are just voting on the performance. But at the same time I don’t know if a jury will find Faist’s role all that challenging which is a shame.

    8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog – He made it in with the London film critics and is perhaps the only other performer on this long-list I can imagine getting selected by a jury. He’s not too famous and his film is the type of high brow piece I can imagine a jury favouring. Then again his performance doesn’t standout as much as his three co-stars’ do in screen time, narrative prominence or showiness. Plemons does have a particularly memorable scene but it isn’t a performance with lots of emoting which might not help.

    9. Jamie Dornan, Belfast – If Hinds is too weak a second choice with the membership I can see a scenario where Dornan is not far behind and just enough support to make it in over a weakened Hinds but at the same time, Dornan feels like an even weaker contender after his miss at the BIFAs.

    10. Mark Rylance, Don’t Look Up – I don’t expect him to go anywhere near the Oscars but Don’t Look Up does feel like a film that peaked at the right time and Rylance commands quite a fair bit of respect in the British film industry (he was long-listed for Chicago 7 last year, probably would also have been for Dunkirk if the long-lists existed then). If the field ends up being wide open after Kodi when it comes to who is attracting the most membership votes, him getting in wouldn’t surprise me.

    11. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza – Really the hurdle here for Cooper was getting long-listed and judging by how well Licorice Pizza performed on these long-lists and the state of this field he’s someone I’d quite easily be predicting under the voting system from two years ago. He got in at SAG over Hinds and Dornan so it isn’t entirely impossible he gets in with the membership vote here. Especially considering Licorice Pizza essentially got into every category it even had a chance at getting in to on these long-lists.

    12. Jared Leto, House of Gucci – I worry with how well House of Gucci performed at and on these long-lists and again with Hinds potentially not being that strong a top 2 contender that Leto could find himself in the top 2. Thankfully there seem to be enough contenders who seem like they have a stronger chance of breaking into the top 2 and this is a performance no jury is going to come close to nominating so I don’t have to make my predictions with a bit of vomit in my mouth.

    13-15. Al Pacino, House of Gucci, J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos, Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    #1204734077
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    wolfali
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    #1204734107

    These are great write-ups, wolfali! Are you doing these for most, if not all, BAFTA categories?

    Thank you!

    I am aiming to do write-ups for each of the categories in the predictions centre + British film. I also usually post predictions for the below the line categories (although not with any analysis) closer to nominations but I don’t think I’m going to do that this year because sheesh they seem impossible to predict lol.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Stefania
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    Feb 22nd, 2021
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    #1204734168

    I agree with your predictions. I have Mike Faist instead of Benicio Del Toro, but I’m not sure two actors from WSS will get selected.

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    forwardswill
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    Apr 9th, 2013
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    #1204734182

    Supporting Actor

    Perfect ranking

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    Luca Giliberti
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    Jun 23rd, 2017
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    #1204734184

    I am always here for excellent rankings + explanations from wolfali and forwardswill. 🙏

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    alittle03
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    Sep 16th, 2020
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    #1204734186

    I am always here for excellent rankings + explanations from wolfali and forwardswill. 🙏

    They really are too good at it.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    forwardswill
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    Apr 9th, 2013
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    #1204734192

    I’m looking forward to wolfali’s Best Actress ranking as I’m curious to see where he places Stewart given that I still believe she’d have a strong chance with the jury even if she’s not top 2

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