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BAFTA 2022 Nomination Predictions

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    Manav
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    #1204739975

    Leading Actress

    (membership pick predictions in bold)

    1. Tessa Thompson, Passing – This performance is everything a BAFTA jury loves and more.

    2. Joanna Scanlan, After Love – Look I won’t call her a lock (this is a competitive field) but the passion for this performance is through the ROOF. Scanlan managed to get into a competitive LFCC field and the word of mouth for her work brought the film along on the long-list in a category like original screenplay. Her performance is one of the showiest in this category and she’s a well respected (and arguably under-recognised) veteran character actress playing a British Muslim convert in a gritty homegrown indie. She just checks off so many boxes.

    3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter – I’m terrified at how high I have her here with her previous snubs but if I’m putting Cumberbatch and Garfield higher in my best actor predictions because of hometown advantage in a wide open race then really I should be doing the same with the most popular British thespian right now. There does feel like a narrative that’s developed here that this is the first time since her Oscar win that she’s delivered a performance that has shown everyone the full force of Olivia Colman and there seems to be a lot of support behind her whether it’s with the fact she hasn’t missed a televised award, her resurgence with the London film critics who didn’t even nominate her for best British actress last year or the overall industry passion for this performance. So many actors both in and outside of the Hollywood circuit have shown their love for her performance here and its long-list performance clearly shows its quite a well watched film. I’d probably say that her chances of making it with a jury if she misses the top 2 are much higher than any of the big “Oscar contenders” (aside from maybe Kristen) but if she does miss entirely it would only go to show how the bar is unfortunately much higher for actors of Colman’s stature.

    4. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World – She’s perhaps the biggest “underdog” in this category considering this is a breakthrough performance and her performance is the only one on any long-list this year that isn’t in the English language. She’s already won at Cannes and was nominated in that stacked LFCC lineup which goes to show how much passion there is for this performance and her performance and the film itself are quirky enough for a jury that favours idiosyncrasies to take to. The competitive nature of the field doesn’t make me feel completely sure in her getting in but I don’t think this is a performance that will have any problem standing out. Reinsve should perhaps be thanking her stars that Penelope Cruz didn’t make the long-list.

    5. Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava – This is really where things feel like a tossup situation. I do think the jury will favour homegrown indies so in goes Rushbrook. Like Scanlan she’s a veteran character actress who arguably hasn’t really been given their due but whilst she has strong notices for this film, she hasn’t received anywhere near as much recognition for this performance as Scanlan has for hers or Rushbrook’s own co-star has which makes me pause here. Two handers can really play either way because if your performance doesn’t stand out as much as your co-stars, it can hurt you with a jury with a ranked ballot. See how Viola Davis and Olivia Colman missed last year in spite of the former’s performance being incredibly showy and the latter being in the British film of the year. Rushbrook obviously doesn’t have the same profile as Davis and Colman and an interracial love story from one of the country’s most respected independent film directors feels like something a jury would go all out for but it also wouldn’t surprise me if she did miss.

    6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci – I have zero confidence in this prediction but House of Gucci did well on the long-lists so here we are! I think one thing a Gaga nomination would be indicative of is love and passion for House of Gucci which is something I’m not sure the long-lists are indicative of. Jared Leto, Al Pacino and Adam Driver made the long-lists but is that really indicative of love for the film and Gaga as opposed to the fact they were always contenders to get in here due to the visibility of the film and Ridley?

    ——————————————————————————————————–

    7. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos – She’s received the same amount of BAFTA nominations in her career as she has Oscar ones (although two of her nominations were for different projects to her Oscar ones) and the actors branch clearly liked Being the Ricardos enough to long-list a SAG snubbed J.K. Simmons. I might switch Gaga out for her before the predictions centre closes although the one thing that is stopping me from doing so is that I feel like she might have peaked a bit too late. I guess with this category one has to ask themselves how contenders in previous years would have fared under this system. If voting for the top 2 had closed a few days before the Globes in 2019, would Glenn Close have made the BAFTA top 2 or would it have been Gaga and Olivia considering their films were bigger contenders and at the time they were bigger contenders themselves?

    8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story – The film may be more gp fare and the consensus is that her co-stars over-shadowed her but Zegler at the end of the day this is Zegler’s debut screen performance, she was 18 during principal photography and this is a performance that had quite a strong reception. A nomination for her would also be recognition of a Latinx thespian.

    9. Kristen Stewart, Spencer – After her SAG snub I’ve moved her down to 4th at the Oscars and I’ve more or less given up any prediction on her winning the Oscar but I’m still not ruling her out of making it into the top 2 here. There’s no doubt Spencer under-performed on the long-list but at the same I’m not sure if Sally Hawkins missing the long-list is really indicative of weakness for Stewart when Spencer is essentially a one woman show and the actors branch could just not have cared about it much outside of Stewart. The way I feel about Stewart is kind of the opposite of Kidman. She was technically the frontrunner and had all the momentum on the day voting closed so really there should be no reason for her to miss? Unless she was never in the top 2 which is also just as possible and I guess considering I have her 9th is something I’m assuming? I guess part of why I’m also hesitant about having Stewart in this position in my predictions is that I can also see hr making it in with a jury. Kristen Stewart may not be an under-dog but the work here feels like the kind that thrives with a smaller viewing body like a jury as opposed to a wider voting body because it’s a performance that has more passion than it has consensus. I can also see the fact that her performance and film aren’t really the same type of “traditional biopic” as the rest of the biopic contenders in this category’s are end up favouring her.

    10. Emilia Jones, CODA – Perhaps I should have her higher than Zegler and Stewart because of the type of performer Jones is and independent drama CODA is but I’m not convinced about the amount of passion Jones’ performance has. She definitely is deserving of a nomination but I can also see her being the Kingsley Ben-Adir of this season where in spite of delivering performances worthy of recognition and fitting all the criteria here (British, rising star, in a social drama), they’re just over-shadowed in passion by the work of their co-stars. Is it telling that Jones missed at the Spirits whilst Kotsur still made it in? CODA being a drama about a deaf family and their hearing daughter/interpreter keeps her in contention but at the same time I’m not sure how high brow the jury will see a light hearted coming of age film as? I do think Kotsur is safe in supporting actor regardless though.

    11. Jennifer Hudson, Respect – As basic a biopic this film is there’s no doubt people love Hudson’s work in it and that there isn’t really an abundance of poc performers on this long-list. Her film might not be very arthouse like Stewart’s is by any means but I can also see her work appealing to the jury because Hudson isn’t really giving “an impression” of Franklin in this performance. Not betting on her getting in but I also wouldn’t be surprised if she did.

    12. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – An older thespian playing Lady Macbeth. That’s literally all McDormand needs to stand out with a jury here never mind the type of noir drama The Tragedy of Macbeth is or McDormand’s type of acting style igniting its own passion. I would probably be predicting her here if she didn’t just win.

    13. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza – I’ve posted more times than I can remember about how this film feels like the type of “cool” jury pick across each category but at the same time whilst Haim’s work in this film does inspire passion, it’s one of the few performances in this category I can imagine will garner some lower placements on some jurors’ ranked ballots (the controversy over the character and characterisation, Haim being a singer turned thespian etc).

    14 & 15. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye & Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

    Great analysis.👏
    I still think a jury can like Chastain because of the baity nature of her performance (and because juries are so random) but her status as a Hollywood star is a big negative for her.

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    Stefania
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    #1204740033

    I also have Colman and Lady Gaga at top 2, but then I’m predicting that Stewart is going to be saved by the jury, which means Nicole Kidman is getting snubbed. Argh, every way you look at it someone big is going to snubbed in this race I guess.

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    Monet Tejada
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    #1204740043

    Those longlists are not the end all, be all. We’ve seen movies lead the longlists but only bring in 3-4 nominations. Just because a movie “overperformed” doesn’t mean that it performed well in the top two. It just means it placed somewhere good enough to make the shortlists. That could be anywhere from 1-10. Lol Just an FYI.

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    yoseligo
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    #1204740054

    The longlists are more popular and less british than last year.

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    wolfali
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    #1204740091

    I think really with the long-lists what you have to look at is the scope of these mentions rather than the quantity. For example The Tragedy of Macbeth only got 8 long-list mentions but it still got into every category it needed to (Joel Coen got long-listed in director, the film made best film, three actors, screenplay, a few crafts) whilst The French Dispatch got 11 long-list mentions and missed director and got only 1 actor long-listed (presumably due to the long-listing jury).

    When it comes to the acting top 2 I think you have to look at the type of film each of these actors are in. Someone who is checking off House of Gucci in best film is not only going to check off Lady Gaga but will probably also check off Adam Driver, Jared Leto (🤮) and Al Pacino as well. Someone who is checking off The Lost Daughter in best film probably isn’t going to check off Paul Mescal or Ed Harris because as strong as the ensemble in The Lost Daughter was (I personally preferred the ensemble to the HoG ensemble), it’s not a film that is focused on its ensemble. It’s more on Colman and then Buckley and Johnson.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204740120

    Wolfali, I love these write-ups you do. They really help me out with predicting these juried categories.

    The second membership-voted slot is so hard. If Kidman is actually winning the Oscar I think she probably needs to get it.

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    JV
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    #1204740176

    Casting is easily the most difficult category to predict (the positions on the predictions center makes me think that people still don’t know that this is not the same as SAG Ensemble). You can make a case about most of the longlisted contenders

    I think CODA is the only one I feel confident in getting in because of the casting of deaf actors, which is something that the campaign has been promoting.

    The Power of the Dog on paper seems to be a reasonable prediction as well due to the smart get of Benedict playing a character who pretends he’s brute, and the way Kodi Smit McPhee was just perfect for the role.

    Dune and The Lost Daughter are based on books. (The Lost Daughter should win based on how they were able to reunite a lot of attractive people at the same movie, lol)

    Belfast and The Hand of God have a good case about the casting of familiar figures of the director’s past. Licorice Pizza has Alana and Cooper Hoffmann, who were perfect fits for that universe. There’s also a lot of cameos in the movie.

    After Love and Boiling Point have the indie casting factor (I’m predicting both because I think at least one gets in). Passing has the casting of Ruth Negga (which some idiots thought it was a miscast), playing with the dumbness of people who can’t see who she obviously is.

    Tick, Tick… Boom, because of the real person factor. (This makes the presence House of Gucci and King Richard here so freaking eye rolling).

    Right now I have CODA, The Power of the Dog, After Love, Boiling Point and Licorice Pizza.

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    wolfali
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    #1204740198

    I honestly don’t see how people are predicting Hinds to get nominated at BAFTA. His veteran and overdue status might get him an Oscars nom (didn’t help him at SAG), but the TOP 2 in my opinion is very clearly Kodi and Kotsur.

    It depends on how much of a factor you think Kotsur is in the Oscars race and how far ahead you think Kodi is as a frontrunner tbh. I’m not as convinced that Kotsur is as win competitive for the Oscar as most are and Marlee Matlin failing to get long-listed here makes me feel like there might not be enough support for CODA as a film for Kotsur to be so dominant with the actors branch.

    I don’t think Hinds is win competitive for the Oscar but he’s the only Belfast cast member who made it in at both the BIFAs and LFCC and whilst I don’t think Belfast is going to be the second coming at the BAFTAs (I have it third in best film), it does feel like a film that BAFTA is going to be warmer on than anyone else. Hence why I have Hinds as one of the membership picks in my predictions. It’s not a prediction I’m 100% confident in though and I agree he’s not a lock (I do think Kotsur is a lock on the other hand because even though I don’t think he gets in with the membership, I struggle to see how that performance doesn’t charm a jury).

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    kamila
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    #1204740230

    I think Kotsur’s best chance of winning anything is SAG, and even that’s gambling on how beloved CODA is.

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    JV
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    #1204740266

    I think Kotsur’s best chance of winning anything is SAG, and even that’s gambling on how beloved CODA is.

    I’m predicting him there even if he doesn’t win the Oscar. Sort like Denzel/Casey Affleck

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    wolfali
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    #1204740311

    Casting is easily the most difficult category to predict (the positions on the predictions center makes me think that people still don’t know that this is not the same as SAG Ensemble). You can make a case about most of the longlisted contenders I think CODA is the only one I feel confident in getting in because of the casting of deaf actors, which is something that the campaign has been promoting. The Power of the Dog on paper seems to be a reasonable prediction as well due to the smart get of Benedict playing a character who pretends he’s brute, and the way Kodi Smit McPhee was just perfect for the role. Dune and The Lost Daughter are based on books. (The Lost Daughter should win based on how they were able to reunite a lot of attractive people at the same movie, lol) Belfast and The Hand of God have a good case about the casting of familiar figures of the director’s past. Licorice Pizza has Alana and Cooper Hoffmann, who were perfect fits for that universe. There’s also a lot of cameos in the movie. After Love and Boiling Point have the indie casting factor (I’m predicting both because I think at least one gets in). Passing has the casting of Ruth Negga (which some idiots thought it was a miscast), playing with the dumbness of people who can’t see who she obviously is. Tick, Tick… Boom, because of the real person factor. (This makes the presence House of Gucci and King Richard here so freaking eye rolling). Right now I have CODA, The Power of the Dog, After Love, Boiling Point and Licorice Pizza.

    I agree it’s a tough category (part of the reason I haven’t posted a predictions ranking for it lol!)

    Right now I have After Love, Belfast, Boiling Point, CODA and The Power of the Dog. And the only one I feel confident in at the moment is CODA. I have The Power of the Dog in because Promising Young Woman‘s nomination here last year makes me feel like the jury respects “against type” casting. But at the same time I’m tempted to switch it out for something else because the competition is tough and I can see a jury not really thinking Nina Gold needs “saving” (she would easily make it in with the membership though who nominated her for The Two Popes lol).

    West Side Story has a cast of not so well known actors, younger actors, newcomers and Latinx actors so it can definitely happen. Similar thing with Licorice Pizza and King Richard. The Hand of God also feels like the exact type of film I can imagine a jury loving out of nowhere. The two I’m specifically keeping an eye out for though are The Lost Daughter and Passing. Both are films praised for their strong casting achievements (and The Lost Daughter has the quirk of casting Colman and Buckley to play the same character) and the former is from a veteran British TV casting director.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    forwardswill
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    #1204740354

    Leading Actress (membership pick predictions in bold) 1. Tessa Thompson, Passing – This performance is everything a BAFTA jury loves and more. 2. Joanna Scanlan, After Love – Look I won’t call her a lock (this is a competitive field) but the passion for this performance is through the ROOF. Scanlan managed to get into a competitive LFCC field and the word of mouth for her work brought the film along on the long-list in a category like original screenplay. Her performance is one of the showiest in this category and she’s a well respected (and arguably under-recognised) veteran character actress playing a British Muslim convert in a gritty homegrown indie. She just checks off so many boxes. 3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter – I’m terrified at how high I have her here with her previous snubs but if I’m putting Cumberbatch and Garfield higher in my best actor predictions because of hometown advantage in a wide open race then really I should be doing the same with the most popular British thespian right now. There does feel like a narrative that’s developed here that this is the first time since her Oscar win that she’s delivered a performance that has shown everyone the full force of Olivia Colman and there seems to be a lot of support behind her whether it’s with the fact she hasn’t missed a televised award, her resurgence with the London film critics who didn’t even nominate her for best British actress last year or the overall industry passion for this performance. So many actors both in and outside of the Hollywood circuit have shown their love for her performance here and its long-list performance clearly shows its quite a well watched film. I’d probably say that her chances of making it with a jury if she misses the top 2 are much higher than any of the big “Oscar contenders” (aside from maybe Kristen) but if she does miss entirely it would only go to show how the bar is unfortunately much higher for actors of Colman’s stature. 4. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World – She’s perhaps the biggest “underdog” in this category considering this is a breakthrough performance and her performance is the only one on any long-list this year that isn’t in the English language. She’s already won at Cannes and was nominated in that stacked LFCC lineup which goes to show how much passion there is for this performance and her performance and the film itself are quirky enough for a jury that favours idiosyncrasies to take to. The competitive nature of the field doesn’t make me feel completely sure in her getting in but I don’t think this is a performance that will have any problem standing out. Reinsve should perhaps be thanking her stars that Penelope Cruz didn’t make the long-list. 5. Claire Rushbrook, Ali & Ava – This is really where things feel like a tossup situation. I do think the jury will favour homegrown indies so in goes Rushbrook. Like Scanlan she’s a veteran character actress who arguably hasn’t really been given their due but whilst she has strong notices for this film, she hasn’t received anywhere near as much recognition for this performance as Scanlan has for hers or Rushbrook’s own co-star has which makes me pause here. Two handers can really play either way because if your performance doesn’t stand out as much as your co-stars, it can hurt you with a jury with a ranked ballot. See how Viola Davis and Olivia Colman missed last year in spite of the former’s performance being incredibly showy and the latter being in the British film of the year. Rushbrook obviously doesn’t have the same profile as Davis and Colman and an interracial love story from one of the country’s most respected independent film directors feels like something a jury would go all out for but it also wouldn’t surprise me if she did miss. 6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci – I have zero confidence in this prediction but House of Gucci did well on the long-lists so here we are! I think one thing a Gaga nomination would be indicative of is love and passion for House of Gucci which is something I’m not sure the long-lists are indicative of. Jared Leto, Al Pacino and Adam Driver made the long-lists but is that really indicative of love for the film and Gaga as opposed to the fact they were always contenders to get in here due to the visibility of the film and Ridley? ——————————————————————————————————– 7. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos – She’s received the same amount of BAFTA nominations in her career as she has Oscar ones (although two of her nominations were for different projects to her Oscar ones) and the actors branch clearly liked Being the Ricardos enough to long-list a SAG snubbed J.K. Simmons. I might switch Gaga out for her before the predictions centre closes although the one thing that is stopping me from doing so is that I feel like she might have peaked a bit too late. I guess with this category one has to ask themselves how contenders in previous years would have fared under this system. If voting for the top 2 had closed a few days before the Globes in 2019, would Glenn Close have made the BAFTA top 2 or would it have been Gaga and Olivia considering their films were bigger contenders and at the time they were bigger contenders themselves? 8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story – The film may be more gp fare and the consensus is that her co-stars over-shadowed her but Zegler at the end of the day this is Zegler’s debut screen performance, she was 18 during principal photography and this is a performance that had quite a strong reception. A nomination for her would also be recognition of a Latinx thespian. 9. Kristen Stewart, Spencer – After her SAG snub I’ve moved her down to 4th at the Oscars and I’ve more or less given up any prediction on her winning the Oscar but I’m still not ruling her out of making it into the top 2 here. There’s no doubt Spencer under-performed on the long-list but at the same I’m not sure if Sally Hawkins missing the long-list is really indicative of weakness for Stewart when Spencer is essentially a one woman show and the actors branch could just not have cared about it much outside of Stewart. The way I feel about Stewart is kind of the opposite of Kidman. She was technically the frontrunner and had all the momentum on the day voting closed so really there should be no reason for her to miss? Unless she was never in the top 2 which is also just as possible and I guess considering I have her 9th is something I’m assuming? I guess part of why I’m also hesitant about having Stewart in this position in my predictions is that I can also see hr making it in with a jury. Kristen Stewart may not be an under-dog but the work here feels like the kind that thrives with a smaller viewing body like a jury as opposed to a wider voting body because it’s a performance that has more passion than it has consensus. I can also see the fact that her performance and film aren’t really the same type of “traditional biopic” as the rest of the biopic contenders in this category’s are end up favouring her. 10. Emilia Jones, CODA – Perhaps I should have her higher than Zegler and Stewart because of the type of performer Jones is and independent drama CODA is but I’m not convinced about the amount of passion Jones’ performance has. She definitely is deserving of a nomination but I can also see her being the Kingsley Ben-Adir of this season where in spite of delivering performances worthy of recognition and fitting all the criteria here (British, rising star, in a social drama), they’re just over-shadowed in passion by the work of their co-stars. Is it telling that Jones missed at the Spirits whilst Kotsur still made it in? CODA being a drama about a deaf family and their hearing daughter/interpreter keeps her in contention but at the same time I’m not sure how high brow the jury will see a light hearted coming of age film as? I do think Kotsur is safe in supporting actor regardless though. 11. Jennifer Hudson, Respect – As basic a biopic this film is there’s no doubt people love Hudson’s work in it and that there isn’t really an abundance of poc performers on this long-list. Her film might not be very arthouse like Stewart’s is by any means but I can also see her work appealing to the jury because Hudson isn’t really giving “an impression” of Franklin in this performance. Not betting on her getting in but I also wouldn’t be surprised if she did. 12. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth – An older thespian playing Lady Macbeth. That’s literally all McDormand needs to stand out with a jury here never mind the type of noir drama The Tragedy of Macbeth is or McDormand’s type of acting style igniting its own passion. I would probably be predicting her here if she didn’t just win. 13. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza – I’ve posted more times than I can remember about how this film feels like the type of “cool” jury pick across each category but at the same time whilst Haim’s work in this film does inspire passion, it’s one of the few performances in this category I can imagine will garner some lower placements on some jurors’ ranked ballots (the controversy over the character and characterisation, Haim being a singer turned thespian etc). 14 & 15. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye & Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

    I’m stunned by how you have Stewart below Zegler! I think she could easily be below Kidman and Gaga so those rankings are completely fair enough even if I’m guessing differently overall. With Gaga though are you considering her as win competitive? Because for her to be top 2 she’d have to be. Hudson I of course have higher but you make a compelling argument for Rushbrook. That’s the swap I’m most likely to make. My final note would just be to say that I think there still potentially exists a bizarre world where Jessica Chastain is actually winning the Oscar so I wouldn’t completely rule her out of being top 2 here.

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    wolfali
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    #1204740423

    I’m stunned by how you have Stewart below Zegler! I think she could easily be below Kidman and Gaga so those rankings are completely fair enough even if I’m guessing differently overall. With Gaga though are you considering her as win competitive? Because for her to be top 2 she’d have to be. Hudson I of course have higher but you make a compelling argument for Rushbrook. That’s the swap I’m most likely to make. My final note would just be to say that I think there still potentially exists a bizarre world where Jessica Chastain is actually winning the Oscar so I wouldn’t completely rule her out of being top 2 here.

    I’ll note that after Reinsve (who I also don’t think is guaranteed a nomination but I do think her performance stands out in a way most of these contenders don’t) they’re all, aside from Lawrence, really on equal footing in my predictions. So whilst I have Zegler ahead of Stewart I could just as easily see Stewart getting in with a jury and Zegler getting snubbed. Stewart has the more jury friendly film and performance but at the same time there’s just something about some these West Side Story actors that I feel might find appeal with a jury (they’re young and largely unknown). Zegler gives a performance that I suspect ignites more passion than consensus and I can really see that catching on with a smaller viewing body like a jury and not to mention she’s a young Latinx newcomer so a lineup with her in it would undoubtedly provide for more diversity. I don’t have her in the six I have in the predictions centre (and probably won’t slot her in by the time it closes) but a nomination for her would really remind me of Alan Kim making the cut last year even as their more buzzed about co-stars (Moreno and Faist/Yeun) miss the cut. Of course Minari was quite a jury friendly independent drama which is something West Side Story is not so I’m not too confident in Zegler making the cut but it’s definitely something I can see happening.

    I do think Gaga is win competitive for both the BAFTA and Oscar mainly because she’s the only contender (along with Colman) who continuously has had heat in some form throughout this entire season. She won with the New York Film Critics and even as she started to not perform as well with critics circles, she still feel like she had a lot of momentum and buzz because of how well the film was performing commercially. Likewise right now she seems to be the contender in this category with the biggest vehicle (House of Gucci did well at SAG and of course did well on these long-lists). That being said it’s not a prediction I’m confident in and I’m very tempted to take her out for Kidman (who is currently in number one in my Oscar predictions). As I said in my initial post it’s easy to assume that number of long-list mentions = passion and the fact that a SAG snubbed J.K. Simmons managed to make the long-list might mean for Kidman than Al Pacino and Jared Leto (both of whom were nominated at least somewhere else) meaning much for Gaga considering how ensemble focused House of Gucci is.

    It’s hard to predict things with sight unseen but Rushbrook just feels like someone who just… makes sense? As mentioned in the post it could be possible that she just ranks lower with the best actress jury if they find her work to be over-shadowed by Akhtar’s but it just makes sense for them to really be charmed by a film like Ali & Ava? Rushbrook already made it in at the BIFAs so there definitely seems to be passion for her performance and with how well we saw more “independent fare” still do with the jury when there wasn’t really a consensus in the acting (Calm with Horses still got both its supporting actors in for example), she just feels like a safer person to predict tbh.

    I apologise if my response is too long. There’s just so much to talk about this year here haha!

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Opium
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    #1204741284

    I don’t even bother in trying to make a prediction with those because it’s basically impossible, everybody in contention can be snubbed with them.

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    Manav
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    #1204741320

    Going through the longlists again, I was surprised that with the way No Time To Die performed, Léa Seydoux is not shortlisted considering her presence is very large in the last hour of the film and she forms the emotional core of the film.

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