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BAFTA 2022 Nomination Predictions

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    wolfali
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    #1204741392

    British Film

    The Membership Five:

    1. Belfast – The strongest British contender in the main film race.

    2. No Time to Die – Frankly I would be predicting this to get into British film regardless of how well it did on the long-lists because it is a widely loved Bond movie and those tend to do well here and have overcome historical stats against them. Could win over Belfast like Skyfall won over Les Miserables. Especially considering it was a massive pop cultural phenomenon that has been credited in the industry

    3. House of Gucci – It was long-listed in best film and is one of the most long-listed films of the year.

    4. Last Night in Soho – This movie is one of the few in this category that really seems to have wide enough visibility and appeal sans the top 3 (it also had stronger box office returns than many of the Oscar contenders in the best film race). Not to mention it’s also the only other film on this long-list that received mentions in the double digits. The Anya Taylor-Joy mention makes me wonder if it was next in line in best film, it did more or less get into the same categories as The French Dispatch after all.

    5. Cyrano – I’m not so confident on this one because whilst it did well below the line, it’s hard to tell how high it is in the adapted screenplay race. Dinklage was probably a membership pick but was he top 5 or was he 10th? I do think 5th slot with the membership is between it, After Love and Passing. I’m sure both of those films are getting in either way with the jury, not as confident with Cyrano. Perhaps what’s tipping it above the line here is that a Joe Wright period drama (a bit like an Edgar Wright movie or a Kevin MacDonald socio-political drama) feels like something that has enough prestige in the industry for it to be high on voters’ viewing lists in spite of not having had a buzzy UK release yet.

    The Jury Five:

    6. After Love – No BIFA best film winner has missed since 2014 and that was before the jury system was introduced.

    7. Ali & Ava – Set in the North West of England? Check. Critically acclaimed? Check. An independent movie from a respected homegrown director? Check.

    8. Passing – I’m not as confident in it making it into this category as After Love or Ali & Ava because it’s arguably the most “American” film here but it does feel like a highly respected film, it’s auteur driven but also (and perhaps more importantly) its a black and white arthouse movie with an important subject matter with wide appeal and relevance.

    9. Boiling Point – Could miss because there does seem to be more passion for the performances than the film itself (as with any film with a similar tone) but it is arguably the most “independent” as well as the most “British” of the remaining films in this category which should help it immensely.

    10. Spencer – It’s a polarising movie so it could not rank highly on these jurors’ balloots (Stewart will probably rank higher at the end of the day in the actress race even if she doesn’t get in because her performance has more passion than the film itself) but at the same time it’s the only film remaining on this long-list that feels like its “quirky enough” to really stand out amongst a jury. Would be shocked if it was a membership pick though if it gets in considering it missed original screenplay.

    The rest of the contenders:

    11. Benediction – It’s hard to predict unseen but this seems to be a decently liked movie, had a decent critical reception and it feels like it has a subject matter that has a lot of emotional appeal. It also is a Terrence Davies movie which at least gives it enough prestige to be a contender. It missed the BIFAs but then again two of the films it missed for aren’t even on this long-list. I think the real hesitation I have behind putting this film into my actual predictions is it just looks… conventional? And I say this as someone who is looking forward to watching this movie lol!

    12. The Duke – This film looks like the type of generic British period piece that would dominate across categories here 15 year ago. But it’s also Roger Michell’s last movie which makes me think it could surprise as a jury pick due to sentimentality, especially considering how wide open that last spot in this category really feels right now.

    13. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain – There’s something about this film that feels like it should be up BAFTA’s alley even if it’s not a big contender? Maybe it’s the Claire Foy and Benedict Cumberbatch of it all? The Will Sharpe of it all? The fact that StudioCanal have been buying FYC adverts for it left, right and centre and held screening after screening? It didn’t set the long-lists on fire so I don’t have it in my predicted lineup but at the same time I do wonder considering it still did decently on these long-lists (3 BTL mentions) if it’s quite possible Cumberbatch placed in the top 15 for this movie but didn’t get mentioned because of the rules on double mentions in this category.

    14-20. CruellaEverybody’s Talking About JamieMothering Sunday, Operation Mincemeat, The Colour Room, The King’s Man, Munich : The Edge of War

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    wolfali
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    #1204741430

    Going through the longlists again, I was surprised that with the way No Time To Die performed, Léa Seydoux is not shortlisted considering her presence is very large in the last hour of the film and she forms the emotional core of the film.

    I think at the end of the day getting support from the actors branch in somme cases here is almost like competing a popularity contest. Look at how Margot Robbie got double nominated in 2020, how we’ve seen actors with bigger stand out notices from British dramas miss whilst their more famous co-stars have made it in, how Amy Adams made it in for Big Eyes. Ana de Armas is a really big star right now and was one of the aspects of No Time to Die with the most pre-hype so she just was on voters’ minds more. It’s probably also why Anya Taylor-Joy got long-listed over her just as acclaimed co-star in spite of her being a British acting icon delivering her final acting performance.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204742832

    Animated Feature on lock?

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    jez89
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    #1204743073

    This jury system is really warped and has ruined the BAFTA’s. Excellent POC performers have traditionally gotten nominated anyway, except for a few random outliers (Washington). Diversity for diversity sake is not a good thing.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    #1204743097

    This jury system is really warped and has ruined the BAFTA’s. Excellent POC performers have traditionally gotten nominated anyway, except for a few random outliers (Washington). Diversity for diversity sake is not a good thing.

    No. Diversity isn’t just about race. And definitely not just about black actors. That jury system made it better, actually. It’s the BRITISH FILM AWARDS. That jury system has allowed British talent and all POC British actors to get a chance at being recognized/honored. Black, Indian, Arab, North African, Asian, etc. Which is exactly what has happened, if you look at last year. Beautiful set of nominations where the best of British films were represented. At the British Academy Film Awards.

    And it’s exactly what’s going to happen this year. British Indie films will overperform with nominations, as they should. This isn’t the Oscars.

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    Münster
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    #1204743150

    No. Diversity isn’t just about race. And definitely not just about black actors. That jury system made it better, actually. It’s the BRITISH FILM AWARDS. That jury system has allowed British talent and all POC British actors to get a chance at being recognized/honored. Black, Indian, Arab, North African, Asian, etc. Which is exactly what has happened, if you look at last year. Beautiful set of nominations where the best of British films were represented. At the British Academy Film Awards.

    And it’s exactly what’s going to happen this year. British Indie films will overperform with nominations, as they should. This isn’t the Oscars.

    It’s probably better if they limit eligibility to British productions then, like most national award bodies around the world already do.

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    wolfali
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    #1204743266

    So I’ve switched out Gaga for Kidman in my BAFTA predictions. I have had Kidman in first in my Oscar predictions since Stewart’s SAG snub so really perhaps I should have had her in earlier but I think what really made me switch is not only the Simmons’ long-list mention here but the fact that I think we all glanced over that in hindsight Being the Ricardos as a film actually did quite well on these long-lists.

    House of Gucci (9) – Film, Adapted Screenplay, Acting (three categories), Casting, Cinematography, Costumes Design, Editing, Makeup and Hair, Production Design

    Being the Ricardos (7) – Film, Original Screenplay, Acting (three categories), Costumes Design, Makeup and Hair, Original Score, Production Design

    House of Gucci is of course the more widely liked film considering it made it into cinematography and editing but Being the Ricardos has still performed rather well on these long-lists. It hasn’t missed for a core cast member like Tick, Tick…Boom missed for Robin de Jesus and Being the Ricardos never was a contender in editing or cinematography like King Richard and CODA were in those categories.

    I had Gaga in over Kidman because I assumed the former had enough time to build consensus whilst the latter peaked too late but now I’m wondering if it’s the other way round and Kidman has peaked at the right time with the actors branch whilst Gaga has peaked a bit early.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    braydenfitzsimmons
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    #1204745776

    Belfast just topped the weekend box office in the UK with $3m. It’s the first film to dethrone Spider-Man here. And for comparisons sake, here’s how the B.O. for the other Best Film 15

    1. No Time To Die – $132,149,938
    2. Dune – $28,804,796
    3. House of Gucci – $9,355,617
    4. West Side Story – $9,027,902
    5. The French Dispatch – $5,674,706
    6. Belfast – $3,075,000
    7. Licorice Pizza – $2,089,438
    8. King Richard – $1,505,205

    N/A (aka streamers only)

    • Being The Ricardos
    • CODA
    • Don’t Look Up
    • The Lost Daughter
    • The Power of the Dog
    • The Tragedy of MacBeth
    • tick, tick… BOOM!

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    JV
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    #1204745790

    Belfast just topped the weekend box office in the UK with $3m. It’s the first film to dethrone Spider-Man here. And for comparisons sake, here’s how the B.O. for the other Best Film 15

    1. No Time To Die – $132,149,938
    2. Dune – $28,804,796
    3. House of Gucci – $9,355,617
    4. West Side Story – $9,027,902
    5. The French Dispatch – $5,674,706
    6. Belfast – $3,075,000
    7. Licorice Pizza – $2,089,438
    8. King Richard – $1,505,205

    N/A (aka streamers only)

    • Being The Ricardos
    • CODA
    • Don’t Look Up
    • The Lost Daughter
    • The Power of the Dog
    • The Tragedy of MacBeth
    • tick, tick… BOOM!

    I wonder if Balfe could end up being TOP 2

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    wolfali
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    #1204745798

    I wonder if Balfe could end up being TOP 2

    Possible. But the top 2 are those who are the top vote-getters out of everyone in round 1 of voting so she’ll already have had to been in the top 2 in the beginning of the month for that to happen.

    I want to slot her into my jury predictions but the category is so stacked.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    Dec 21st, 2019
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    #1204745802

    Who do you think has a better chance getting into top 2 – Balfe or Hinds?

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    Manav
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    #1204745805

    Belfast just topped the weekend box office in the UK with $3m.

    $3m in 3 days is quite an achievement.

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    wolfali
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    #1204745813

    I think it’s probably key to watch how it progresses next weekend because a lot of these Oscar contending adult dramas have had strong opening weekends but dropped off quite a bit the following weekend over here (Licorice Pizza for example opened with $1.2 million – its highest anywhere in the world – but then dropped down  to $500k this week).

    It is shocking though that it has had the same opening weekend as House of Gucci (which also opened with $3 million) considering how old Belfast‘s demographic skews and with older people being hesitant to go to cinemas over here (West Side Story for example under-performed on its opening weekend for the film it was). Maybe Judi Dench is the British pensioner population’s Lady Gaga lol.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    wolfali
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    #1204745815

    Who do you think has a better chance getting into top 2 – Balfe or Hinds?

    Hinds. He has a more open category (after Kodi there doesn’t feel like a contender as strong as Dunst or DeBose are in his category) and he’s the only Belfast actor to make it in with all three of the BIFAs, AACTA and the LFCC.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    pierremg
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    #1204745817

    I had Gaga in over Kidman because I assumed the former had enough time to build consensus whilst the latter peaked too late but now I’m wondering if it’s the other way round and Kidman has peaked at the right time with the actors branch whilst Gaga has peaked a bit early.

    This was kinda the argument used by Clayton Davis to remove Gaga from his SAG nominations predictions. He thought Gaga had lost the momentum. But I think HOG is big enough to keep Gaga in the center of the conversation, including in the UK where it perfomed really well at the box office. That longlist was a surprise. I mean, I think everyone agrees the movie has editing problems, but it appeared in editing. They only snubbed Ridley.

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