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Trying to figure out the Top 2’s is turning out to be more difficult to me than the jury picks (though obviously I could be super wrong with my predictions there, as well lol). There’s a handful of actors that I think could make nominations regardless if it’s popular vote or jury that gets them in such as Kotsur, DeBose, and Negga, but would Colman make it without the popular vote? Balfe? Hinds? I’m not sure. And then I’m thinking about unlikely yet potential Top 2’s such as Leto, Dench, or Rylance completely throwing everything for a loop.
I don’t know if she’ll actually get nominated, but I have Ana de Armas in my Supporting Actress predictions.
Maybe Judi Dench is the British pensioner population’s Lady Gaga lol.
I’m… inclined to agree. Whenever she’s had a star vehicle, she’s never really missed. Even something as forgetful as Red Joan still made a decent return.
• Mrs Henderson Presents — $7,102,939
• Notes on a Scandal – $11,561,278
• The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – $32,545,467
• Philomenia – $18,474,238
• Victoria & Abdul — $13,976,615
• Red Joan — $3,430,191Belfast just topped the weekend box office in the UK with $3m. It’s the first film to dethrone Spider-Man here
This is exactly why it should never have changed its release date. It would have stormed the Top 2s and now it could get none.
I changed to Will Smith from Garfield yesterday. I was watching TPOTD and just couldn’t get my head around how Cumberbatch would go onto lose the Oscar if Smith hadn’t even been Top 2 at BAFTA. Garfield feels more like an also-ran but I still think there’s a path for him if he does make it and shocks at SAG.
Lead Actor Top 2 is really confusing with three people vying for the remaining one slot- Will Smith, Andrew Garfield and Daniel Craig. It’s anyone’s guess after that. Cumberbatch is locked.
I can understand releasing closer to the voting of the winners (it’s also closer to the Oscars so there’ll be a commercial boost) but I don’t get why some films release themselves (year after year) after round one of voting has concluded. It feels like self sabotage lol.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
Re: Gaga and Kidman.
I have them almost tied. And it’s hard to really settle for one pick. On paper, an overperformance like HoG had on January 12th would be the definitive sign that Gaga is top 2 for the Oscars and BAFTA. But it’s Gaga, and I think there’s a tendancy among pundits and cinephiles to not take her chances seriously. Because if BTR had 13 mentions and led SAG nominations with a Best Ensemble nod, we wouldn’t be remotely doubting Kidman’s chances now.
So my gut tells me it’s going to be Gaga, but then if you wanna follow common wisdom (or astray, depending on what happens in the end), you’d wanna go with Kidman, because maybe people know better than you. So I’m kinda torn between the 2.
Gaga is the first woman to have won best music at BAFTA and she has been nominated as well for acting, there were people skeptical predicting that she could have missed BAFTA also back in the day with ASIB, but there’s no signs of that group not taking her seriously.
However if she’s gonna miss this year it’s just because of their new messy jury system, she can easily being #3 with just a very small difference of votes, it’s hard to predict who is top2 with Colman in the middle that we think for sure she’s gonna be one of top2, so there’s one spot left, while the jury picks will be total different choices from main contenders.
I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Gaga miss giving the mess that awards group have became with the jury system, but I don’t think it’s gonna preclude her to still ending up being nominated at least, even if she misses this one, in Gaga’s case I would have been more worried if she missed SAG.
Best Director:
Top 2:
- Campion
- Spielberg
Jury:
- Ducournau
- Hamaguchi
- Villeneuve
- Khan
Best Actor:
Top 2:
- Cumberbatch
- Garfield
Jury:
- Washington
- Ali
- Akhtar
- Smith
Best Actress:
Top 2:
- Kidman
- Gaga
Jury:
- Colman
- Thompson
- Scanlan
- Reinsve
Best S. Actor:
Top 2:
- Smit-McPhee
- Kotsur
Jury:
- Alvarez
- del Toro
- Norman
- Hinds
Best S. Actress:
Top 2:
- DeBose
- Balfe
Jury:
- Dunst
- Negga
- Robinson
- Ellis
Letterboxd: Brayfers
Multi-Grammy Winning Artist - Olivia Rodrigo
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Lead Actor Top 2 is really confusing with three people vying for the remaining one slot- Will Smith, Andrew Garfield and Daniel Craig. It’s anyone’s guess after that. Cumberbatch is locked.
I don’t see Smith having a shot at top 2. Probably not Craig either, but I wouldn’t count him out for a jury pick given that it’s his last turn as Bond.
Casting
1. CODA – The only one in this category I truly feel confident in. It’s an independent drama with three main cast members who were previously unknown and has received a lot of passion for its casting of deaf actors in the roles of deaf characters.
2. Boiling Point – Won the equivalent BIFA category over After Love and Belfast. Like CODA it has a diverse ensemble of character actors and unknown actors.
3. Belfast – I’m unsure of how Belfast plays in other juried categories (I don’t think Dornan or Branagh get in with a jury, I’m still 50/50 on Balfe because of competition) but I do think it stands a strong chance in this category due to the fact that outside of Dornan and Dench, each of the actors in this film are either lesser known, child actors or character actors like Hinds. Helps that the film is perhaps the most ensemble driven of those in this category.
4. After Love – I’m less sure about this one than others because at the end of the day this is a competitive category but After Love does feel like something that stands out in this field. It has a form of casting that feels quite unique to British independent dramas like it but I also think in some tighter cases the jury will look at the profile of the casting director behind these productions and it really feels like Shaheen Baig stands out in multiple ways here (case in point she was just nominated multiple times at the BIFAs this year including for her work on this and Ali & Ava).
5. The Power of the Dog – Promising Young Woman‘s nomination last year tells me that there is a lot of passion for films with “against type” casting which along with “the discovery” of Kodi Smit-McPhee gives The Power of the Dog an edge here considering Benedict Cumberbatch playing an American cowboy with internalised homophobia is arguably the most against type casting choice of the season. It is a competitive category though.
6. West Side Story – It bugs me that I don’t have this higher because casting an ensemble of young, unknown and Latinx actors in a remake of a Hollywood classic feels like casting catnip and I really can see the actors from this film do really well with a jury even though the film probably won’t in a category like directing because it’s still more gp fare than high brow.
7. The Lost Daughter – It already has a baity casting achievement with the casting of Jessie Buckley and Olivia Colman as its central character and there’s a type of realism in Maggie Gyllenhaal’s direction of these actors as well as the work of the actors themselves that really lets them sink away from their own profiles outside of the film and into these characters that I can really see appeal being found in with a jury. It’s weird because on the one hand it’s a Hollywood movie but it’s also one made with the budget, style and aesthetic of an independent drama.
8. Passing – Technically a British indie and works driven by a dynamic leading duo really do feel like things that sometimes evoke lots of passion when it comes to casting.
9. Licorice Pizza – Both of the leads of this movie are untrained non-pros.
10. King Richard – It’s an ensemble driven movie and has two child actors in key roles (one of whom arguably has a strong resemblance to the real life person their character is based on).
11. The Hand of God – Without any well known stars and as the only film that isn’t British or American in this race there’s no doubt it stands out. That being said I always find it hard to predict things that don’t have much “visible” passion.
12. Tick, Tick…BOOM! – Andrew Garfield’s casting could elicit passion (especially with him playing a real life character) but at the same time I wonder if the jury will just feel apathy in this category to “the real life” narrative here like with The Mauritanian last year.
13. Dune – Could happen (it is another ensemble driven movie) but at the same time it’s essentially a Hollywood sci-fi movie. There does seem to be a lot of passion for it but both the juried categories it finds itself in are just as competitive as they were last year (if not more so) and after the way something as high brow as Mank even performed in these categories, I’m not really sure what to do with Dune.
14 & 15 – Don’t Look Up and House of Gucci
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
This was kinda the argument used by Clayton Davis to remove Gaga from his SAG nominations predictions. He thought Gaga had lost the momentum. But I think HOG is big enough to keep Gaga in the center of the conversation, including in the UK where it perfomed really well at the box office. That longlist was a surprise. I mean, I think everyone agrees the movie has editing problems, but it appeared in editing. They only snubbed Ridley.
And for all we know, he could’ve theoretically been in a top 15 votes totals breakdown, Scott being #8 or #9 on the men’s Director vote total would likely have gotten more votes than the majority of the top 7 women directors totals.
People predicting Don’t Look Up for Casting at BAFTA is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen online.
Why the hell are experts/editors predicting Belfast for Director ? Only Joyce Eng, Riley Chow and Chris Rosen are not doing it. And Rosen has Dune, West Side Story and Licorice Pizza still.
People just refuse to accept that the jury is supposed to be inclusive and diverse and, above all, to recognize “underdogs”
I’ll be pretty shocked if a single one of Branagh, Spielberg, PTA or Villeneuve get nominated.
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