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BAFTA 2022 Nomination Predictions

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    wolfali
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    #1204747485

    Only Joyce Eng, Riley Chow and Chris Rosen are not doing it.

    These are the only experts/editors to listen to.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    #1204747510
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Sir Shaw
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    #1204747512

    Eng and Chow also being the only two editors last year to include Gavon in Director, Bakray in Actress and Ali in Supporting.

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    Manav
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    #1204747543

    There’s no excuse this time around now that we know the kinds of picks these juries will make.

    Except perhaps Director (where about 9-10 deserving candidates are possible)

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    wilfredpickles
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    #1204747552

    This doesn’t excuse all of the populist Director predictions out there, but based on what I’ve read on other awards sites some people seem to be under the impression that the top 2 choices get saved in this category like they do with the actors. Admittedly if it weren’t for wolfali’s explanations I think a lot of us would’ve assumed the same.

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    alittle03
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    #1204748091

    Does anyone happen to know what time BAFTA nominations are announced next Thursday? Last year, it was 2PM UK time, but the year previous it was 7:30 AM UK time. I have a class in the morning on my time zone, so I’m hoping they doesn’t announce during that haha.

    • FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

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    JV
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    #1204748158

    Best Film seems too obvious and I have a feeling Don’t Look Up or House of Gucci will crack the line up, but at the same time it’s worth a remind that Bohemian Rhapsody wasn’t nominated despite being based on the life of a British icon… BAFTA is notably highbrow.

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    Manav
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    #1204748165

    BAFTA prediction for Best Film:

    1. Belfast
    2. The Power Of The Dog
    3. West Side Story
    4. Dune
    5. No Time To Die

    Spoiler: 6.Don’t Look Up
    7.Licorice Pizza

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    forwardswill
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    #1204748388

    Why the hell are experts/editors predicting Belfast for Director ? Only Joyce Eng, Riley Chow and Chris Rosen are not doing it. And Rosen has Dune, West Side Story and Licorice Pizza still.

    It’s just pure laziness. Joyce and Riley are the only two that have bothered to actually try to understand the system. The others just care about punditry and who would have suited the race 20 years ago.

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    wolfali
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    #1204749317

    I’m inclined to put Branagh in first for screenplay here. I don’t think Belfast is going to win Best Film because BAFTA have just gravitated more and more to copying and pasting what the Globes have awarded in that category (even in wide open years like 2019) but best British film contenders that are win-competitive outside of that category always tend to be favoured in tight races over here and Branagh being given this category whilst West Side Story is given supporting actress and The Power of the Dog is given supporting actor/director just makes so much sense.

    The Favourite couldn’t manage to win an open best film race in spite of sweeping the BIFAs, winning four LFCC awards and being the most nominated film of the year but as the British film of the year it still won every single category where there was a tight race between it and something else (best actress, best supporting actress, best original screenplay, best costume design, best production design) even though it would go on to lose all those categories (except actress of course) at the Oscars. The Theory of Everything likewise took adapted screenplay over The Imitation Game after it took British film but lost to it at the Oscars.

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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    Manav
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    #1204749323

    I think voters might want to reward Branagh for Belfast and if they’re not enthusiastic about the film enough to vote for it in Picture,this might be the place to award it.

    Emmy FYC
    -Severance in all categories.
    -Ted Lasso in all categories.
    -The Dropout in all categories.

    -Jennifer Coolidge, Connie Britton, Margaret Qualley, Colin Firth
    -Jung Ho-Yeon, Lee Yoo-Mi, Sarah Snook, Laura Linney.
    -Jean Smart, Kaley Cuoco, Juno Temple, Sarah Lancashire and Martin Short.

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    Zuranthium
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    Dec 9th, 2014
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    #1204749483

    There’s no excuse this time around now that we know the kinds of picks these juries will make.

    We don’t exactly. The juries change and BAFTA received blowback last year for going too far in the opposite direction with their nominations. The longlists this year looks like they’ve moved back closer to where they used to be the past decade. I feel like the directive handed to them this year might have been “make sure there’s at least one POC per category, but you don’t need to leave out the biggest contenders just for the sake of it.”

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    Hawk
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    #1204749518

    We don’t exactly. The juries change and BAFTA received blowback last year for going too far in the opposite direction with their nominations. The longlists this year looks like they’ve moved back closer to where they used to be the past decade. I feel like the directive handed to them this year might have been “make sure there’s at least one POC per category, but you don’t need to leave out the biggest contenders just for the sake of it.”

    I thought the long lists were much more standard this year because the long lists were selected by the full voting body vs last year the jury selected the long lists and the final line-up. I could definitely be wrong though!

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    JV
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    #1204750080

    Lol, when Judi Dench ends up being TOP 2 in Supporting Actress… I have no doubt she would get in the old system. She has FIVE BAFTA awards.

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    wolfali
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    #1204752929

    Best Film

    1. The Power of the Dog – The Oscar frontrunner.

    2. West Side Story – The most long-listed film and if BAFTA continues its trend of matching up with the Globes in this category, the likeliest challenger for The Power of the Dog here. It’s worth also mentioning that both it and The Power of the Dog seem to be matched in branch support on these long-lists (both have mentions from 11 different BAFTA branches).

    3. Belfast – The British film frontrunner. Got in everywhere it needed to.

    4. Licorice Pizza – Things get a bit murkier here because so many films seem to have an equal amount of support in this category. Licorice Pizza is being seen at the right time with round 2 voting having begun in the midst of the start of its theatrical run (where its opening gross was more than a million dollars, more than any other territory in the world!). In spite of some divisiveness towards the handling of its subject matter it also appears to have a lot more consensus than other films in contention here with the film being win competitive in an above the line category and having been long-listed 11 times across the board.

    5. The Tragedy of Macbeth – It already seems to have attracted a broad amount of support on the long-lists and that was before it even had a wide release. In a divided field like this I can see it having the most recency playing in its favour. Its recent guild performance shows its ability to benefit from a late release.

    6. The Lost Daughter – In spite of getting only 8 mentions on the long-list, it is one of a number of films on this long-list that seem to have a broad amount of support. It got into directing, acting, screenplay and received three below the line long-list mentions which is quite a lot for an independent contemporary drama of its kind. Films that have been borderline when it has come to getting nominated for best film in the past have ended up getting in because they’re win competitive in one or two ATL categories and are thus widely seen and supported enough to get in (BlackKklansman, Darkest Hour etc). The Lost Daughter getting in here would be a strong boost to Olivia’s chances of grabbing the BAFTA.

    7. Don’t Look Up – It got in pretty much everywhere and that McKay was able to crack the directors long-list with the membership shows how much support it has as a film. It still also feels like a fairly recently discussed (maybe still even widely discussed and viewed?) film which gives it a leg up here. That being said whilst it’s surely getting nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars and will receive nods here, I question whether its long-list performance suggests it has passion as opposed to visibility. Feels like something that is either 5th and a nominations leader or one of the films that gets the most nods without a best film nomination.

    8. No Time to Die – The biggest film of the year in the UK. Already performed quite well on the long-lists both with ATL and BTL branches. The directing long-list makes me err on the side of caution though. If any film overcomes a miss like that there it’s probably going to be this one but at the same time I just wonder if it might go the path of Skyfall (which I assume would probably have made a directing long-list) and get lots of nominations and a few wins but just miss Best Film.

    9. Dune – Feels like one of the few films here with both critical and commercial  appeal. It will be bolstered by technical support but its actors branch shut out makes me hesitant about it. I mean sure films have been nominated for best film here before but you’d imagine Roma, Parasite, Dunkirk or even 1917 would have gotten people long-listed in these acting categories. Could Dune‘s shut out be as a result of genre bias? Sure. But I’m not really sure if BAFTA voters have as many biases as AMPAS ones. I mean these are the same people who gave acting and best film nominations to Drive and The Mauritanian. When Shrek got in for best film, they nominated Eddie Murphy. Even this year No Time to Die, an action movie, has gotten a small supporting performances long-listed. Will be interesting for future predictions if it does still get in for best film though.

    10. House of Gucci – BAFTA do seem to really like Ridley Scott movies. Thelma and Louise and American Gangster were both nominated in best film when they missed Best Picture at the Oscars and it’s clear that House of Gucci holds quite a bit of appeal amongst these voters. That being said why did Ridley miss the directing long-list? Vote-splitting with The Last Duel could have been a factor but at the same time was he really attracting that many votes for that film to not be getting votes for Gucci? I have it firmly in my Best Picture predictions at the Oscars but I can see House of Gucci perform similarly to The Martian here. Respected enough to get multiple nominations above and below the line, but not loved enough to get into best film.

    11-15. Being the RicardosKing Richardtick, tick…BoomThe French Dispatch and CODA

    FYC:

    "The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

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