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BAFTA Best Actress vs. Oscar Best Actress Winner (The Astonishing Facts)

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  • GMonty777
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    #1202006008

    I don’t think Stone is a lock just yet. She needs to overcome a gigantic hurdle: The BAFTAs.

    Why is it a hurdle? Since 2000, 11/16 BAFTA Best Actress winners went on to win Best Actress. The BAFTAs said Kidman over Zellwegger. They said Streep over Davis. They said Cortillard over Christie. This despite the Oscar forecasters predicting somebody else. What happened in those 4 incidents?

    2001 – Went to Judi Dench. Halle Berry wasn’t eligible until 2002.
    2003 – Went Scarlett Johanson. Theron wasn’t eligible until 2004.
    2004 – Went to Imeda Staunton. M$Baby got in the screeners too late.
    2009 – Went to Mulligan. Bullock wasn’t eligible.

    4/5 incidents involved actresses being eligible for next year’s awards or having screeners.

    The only exception was Lawrence vs. Riva. Riva won the BAFTA, Lawrence won the SAG. The Oscar went to Lawrence. In that season, Riva failed to receive a SAG nomination.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202006126

    Thank you!

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    GMonty777
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    #1202006146

    Thank you!

    You’re welcome. If the BAFTAs pick Portman, it’s going to be a toss-up on Oscar night. I’ll probably pick Portman, if that happens.

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    Bee
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    #1202006147

    Wait I’m confused. So if she doesn’t win, does that give Huppert a better chance?

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    GusCruz
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    #1202006177

    Wait I’m confused. So if she doesn’t win, does that give Huppert a better chance?

    What this post tells me is that FOUR times the Oscars went for an actress not eligible at Bafta over the one that won there. Which is why it’s far from over even if Stone wins.

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    Bee
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    #1202006195

    As the Superbowl has taught us, I guess it’s not over until it’s over.

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    lovelylovely
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    #1202006196

    As the Superbowl has taught us, I guess it’s not over until it’s over.

    And let’s not forget the election. (that superbowl game though….ugh)

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    GMonty777
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    #1202006197

    Wait I’m confused. So if she doesn’t win, does that give Huppert a better chance?

    The BAFTA and Oscar winner Best Actress have lined up 11 times in the last 16 seasons. That’s a 69% accuracy rating. 4 times the BAFTA and Oscar winner split, the Oscar winner wasn’t eligible for the BAFTAs. Riva vs. Lawrence was the last time, both performers were eligible and the Oscars went with the SAG winner instead of the BAFTA winner.

    In other words:

    Stone winning the BAFTA, would make her the hands down favorite.
    Portman winning the BAFTA, would make it a toss-up between Portman and Stone.
    Stone and Portman losing to Adams or Blunt, would make Hubbert’s chances more likely.

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    Sagand
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    #1202006198

    It tells me when the Bafta winner didn’t win due to eligibility, the eventual winner had already shown to be a frontrunner by winning SAG. Winning both should make that person the overwhelming favourite.

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    GMonty777
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    #1202006199

    As the Superbowl has taught us, I guess it’s not over until it’s over.

    And let’s not forget the election. (that superbowl game though….ugh)

    It’s far from over. Ignoring the BAFTA results is extremely unwise. BAFTAs have done an extremely good job at predicting the Oscar winner. The reason is simple: Some of the members of the Academy are BAFTA members.

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    GusCruz
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    #1202006206

    It tells me when the Bafta winner didn’t win due to eligibility, the eventual winner had already shown to be a frontrunner by winning SAG. Winning both should make that person the overwhelming favourite.

    Three out of these four winners who weren’t eligible at Bafta won the Best Drama Actress Golden Globe (Berry lost, but was nominated).

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