March 12, 2022 at 8:39 am #1204842529
Some photos from the Bafta Gala dinner in London (March 11, 2022)March 12, 2022 at 9:20 am #1204842588
1. Will Smith, King Richard – I’ve been switching around between the performers I have in number one and number two for a while now and may even switch once again before the ceremony. It’s just the feeling that if Smith really is winning the Oscar that this should be an easy place for him to win (even in spite of Cumberbatch being here). King Richard did miss editing on the long-list but it also got into director and the long-list and was nominated in screenplay so there are definitely voters who like this film at BAFTA. We’re predicting Ariana DeBose to win in supporting actress in spite of her film not being up for best film and there are many performers who have won here in spite of their films under-performing with the British bloc (Viola Davis being perhaps the most prominent example for Fences) so why can’t Smith win?
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog – Then again it’s just difficult to bet against BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH in a Jane Campion movie that is likely taking best film here. I mean he has a total of 8 other BAFTA film and TV nominations, was beloved enough to get long-listed for a nothing role (that no other awards body recognised) last year in a best film nominee and is the face of this film on the film circuit here (he’s been doing a lot of campaigning, whenever the film is mentioned in industry trades over here it’s been described as a Benedict Cumberbatch starrer rather than a Jane Campion movie). No best film winner that has had acting nominations has lost all of them here since Argo (which was competing under a different voting system) so if The Power of the Dog really is winning big here it should be able to pick up an acting win for either or both of Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee.
3. Stephen Graham, Boiling Point – Very much an outsider because of there being two Oscar frontrunners in this category and this system relying more on visibility than passion but if this race ends up being wide open, I can see a chance where Graham manages to creep up from behind. His performance has a lot of passion, he’s a beloved TV and film veteran who many in the industry consider to be overdue (this is quite surprisingly his first film nod), he’s been doing a lot of press and the film lit up the specialty box office over here so it does feel like something that is being seen. Not betting on him though after what happened last year in best actress.
4-6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Adeel Akhtar, Mahershala AliMarch 12, 2022 at 9:38 am #1204842603
You make a good case for Smith, wolfali. I am so conflicted. I think the only difference between Smith vs. Cumberbatch at BAFTA and Davis & DeBose is that there is/was no clear alternative to either of the latter two. In 2017, you honestly could have made the case for all three of Harris (though her movie also under-performed), Williams and even Kidman, given that Patel won and Lion did quite well; and this year, honestly, anyone but Dowd and prob Negga could challenge DeBose at BAFTA. Meanwhile, in actor, the clear alternative to Smith arguably is Cumberbatch, who, like you wrote, is coming in with quite some baggage (add the LFCC win to it). Very difficult to predict.March 12, 2022 at 9:53 am #1204842633
Will is quite tempting indeed but at the same time, Rami Malek is the only Best Actor winner, this past decade, to not have his movie nominated for Best Film. And he was playing Freddie Mercury, a british iconic and one of the greatest singers in history. Also, I just struggle to see The Power of the Dog winning Best Film and Benedict not get carried along. Especially on home soil.March 12, 2022 at 10:17 am #1204842677
Any other award show YES but BAFTA, it’s hard to predict Best Actor between Smith & Cumberbatch. GG, SAG and MOST DEFINITELY CC will go to Smith but BAFTA’s, let’s see if Will Smith wins and even if he loses, he’s still the front runner to win Oscars.
Kodi Smit-McPhee is basically the only actor from the film that will probably win at BAFTA and if so, Oscars…….I really don’t know if they’ll go with Troy Kotsur, he will probably win CC but I’m not sure about BAFTA.March 12, 2022 at 10:24 am #1204842690
If Kodi indeed wins BAFTA, predicting supporting actor is going to be incredibly difficult — even more so if Hinds instead upsets.March 12, 2022 at 10:26 am #1204842696
If Will beats Benedict on his home turf, I will change my Oscar prediction to Will – he’ll be the undeniable frontrunner.
If Benedict wins BAFTA, I think there’s a pathway for him to win the Oscar. It would just make the race closer than we think.March 12, 2022 at 10:41 am #1204842734
It’s a very interesting point you raise Luca about Davis not having a clear challenger because my comparison there lied with Cumberbatch being the Harris of this field. Harris was in a best film nominee, won her equivalent category at the London film critics circle and was quite an established and well regarded British film actor with a lot of critical backing that season (although of course the comparison also falters there as she didn’t receive as much critical supporting as Williams and Davis did that season whilst Cumberbatch is the clear critical favourite and also because Ali lost to Patel in spite of winning at the London film critics circle).
Personally I think if Cumberbatch were to win it would suggest he’s win competitive for the Oscar and that this is a wide open race as in recent years every time we’ve seen BAFTA diverge towards the LFCC winner or the British choice of the field the race has been wide open. Of course that can still very easily happen and I haven’t really fully settled on whom I’m predicting in this category but at the same time with how decently King Richard ended up doing at the Oscars I’m not as bullish about Cumberbatch taking the statuette as I was a few months ago. The Malek counter-argument is quite compelling but at the same time I just keep asking myself, outside of last year’s Boseman vs Hopkins race (where the latter was in a late-breaker and top 3 BP contender at the Oscars whilst the former’s film missed the BP nomination) has the best actor category ever been that wide open enough for the best film stat to factor in too much? With the exception of Ejiofor (whose main competitor wasn’t nominated) and Hopkins each of the winners in this category have either been sweepers or people who were the clear favourites to win. Malek may have won without Bohemian Rhapsody being nominated for best film but the film was still a top Picture contender at the Oscars and a bigger contender than Vice whilst the performer who was in a best film nominee that year (Cooper) was a non-factor in the best actor race that season after A Star is Born got shut out at the Golden Globes.
It’s definitely a difficult race to predict here and whomever gets both this and best actress correct in the predictions centre probably deserves to win a BAFTA haha. One of the things that is making me mull switching back to Cumberbatch from Smith is that the latter has never been nominated at BAFTA. Now of course you can argue that there are a lots of factors behind why that is the case but it does give me a bit of a flashback to when we had Glenn Close and Olivia Colman up against each other a few years ago where whilst Close is a big global star, there is apathy towards their overdue narratives amongst people who aren’t American and that hinders their chances at a BAFTA win when they’re up against performers who are arguably the two most popular names on British screens today.March 12, 2022 at 10:45 am #1204842750
Speaking of Close/Colman, were the BAFTA predictions split between them? I can’t recall. I just remember some people here thinking Close had it after her SAG and GG wins, but I also remember people here saying that Colman was going to “upset” there because she was on her home turf and The Favourite performed better. I can’t remember how the pundits leaned.March 12, 2022 at 10:47 am #1204842763
If Kodi indeed wins BAFTA, predicting supporting actor is going to be incredibly difficult — even more so if Hinds instead upsets.
that would help Kodi remembers that Kotsur and Hinds have the similar voting pool they skew behind the voters who voted for Youn Yuh Jung and Alan Arkin they could split vote which allow Kodi to win 😉 that’s just me lol i just can’t imagine Power of the dog with this insane passion for acting Kodi and benedict took over 20+ critics groups will go home empty handed this ain’t shape of water or American HustleMarch 12, 2022 at 10:55 am #1204842803
I think something else to consider is that when BAFTA voting started, there had not been a televised awards show yet. SAG was the first one and 1) that was over two weeks after voting had started and 2) I don’t know how much they influence BAFTA voters.
Hence, I feel like this year we could see all awards bodies (minus CC) acting/voting independently, with the Oscars then stringing everything together.March 12, 2022 at 11:06 am #1204842821
I’ve gotten to the point where I think Cumberbatch and Smit-McPhee are either going to win together or lose together.
One thing that’s really holding me back from predict Smith to upset here is the minimal evidence that KR and Will specifically have campaigned for BAFTA. TPOTD has been a big presence and Benedict has done more than his part, and I don’t think KR is strong enough with BAFTA for that to have made no difference. It’s hard to peg whether films like LP, DLU, and KR have still been on the voters’ minds since nominations. But if KR couldn’t get into Best Film then, did Will’s SAG win really do that much for the film to keep it afloat when many might have made their minds up already?March 12, 2022 at 11:37 am #1204842837
Acting quartet winners in the past decade at BAFTA with a Best Film nomination:
Hopkins (Best Film nomination)
McDormand (Best Film nomination)
Phoenix (Best Film nomination)
Pitt (Best Film nomination)
Colman (Best Film nomination)
Ali (Best Film nomination)
Weisz (Best Film nomination)
Oldman (Best Film nomination)
McDormand (Best Film nomination)
Rockwell (Best Film nomination)
Affleck (Best Film nomination)
Stone (Best Film nomination)
DiCaprio (Best Film nomination)
Rylance (Best Film nomination)
Reddmayne (Best Film nomination)
Arquette (Best Film nomination)
Ejiofor (Best Film nomination)
Abdi (Best Film nomination)
J-law (Best Film nomination)
Day-Lewis (Best Film nomination)
Hathaway (Best Film nomination)
Dujardin (Best Film nomination)
Spencer (Best Film nomination)
Firth (Best Film nomination)
Portman (Best Film nomination)
Rush (Best Film nomination)
Bonham Carter (Best Film nomination)
In the past decade, a minimum of 2 acting winners came from performances in BAFTA Best Film nominations. DeBose is winning Supporting Actress, so that leaves the other 3 categories open for performances to win with a Best Film nomination. If you aren’t predicting Haim to win Best Actress, who has a Best Film nomination from Licorice Pizza, then you’d predict Best Actor (Cumberbatch) or Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee or Hinds) to carry this very strong stat this year.
Edit: Correction—it would be Hinds not Kotsur to carry the stat.
Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.March 12, 2022 at 11:53 am #1204842852
one of the benedict or kodi are gonna upset at the oscars i am not jinxing them but the international members skew behind critically acclaimed performances with the power of the dog having 89+ metascore , people underestimate the international members all the timeNot now
The topic ‘BAFTA Film Awards 2022 Reactions’ is closed to new replies.