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What I am very curious about is whether the fact that this year it’s so much more obvious who were the jury picks in each category means that each of these will be getting nominated. Currently I’m predicting pretty much all of them. But it feels like a big swing to assume that the new juries will 100% agree with what the one before them did.
For example, Leading Actor feels like an almost locked six with Cumberbatch, Garfield, the three jury picks of Akhtar, Graham and Ahmed, and then Washington. My only real debate in this category has been around whether Smith is actually higher than Garfield. But maybe I should be looking at the others two. Who’s to say that this new jury won’t be keen to nominate Joaquin Phoenix or Cooper Hoffman?
Lead Actress is even more complicated because not only could the top 2 be pretty much anyone but then on top of that you’ve got the fact that Colman and Stewart feel like they would stand a solid chance of getting nominated by the juries if they aren’t top 2. Amongst the ones who obviously aren’t top 2, we can tell Scanlan, Reinsve and Rushbrook were the last jury’s picks. Throw in Tessa Thompson and that could be the jury 4. But this category also has the likes of Haim, McDormand and Jones giving jury favourable performances as well. And then, on top of that, the category is incredibly white and, as I mentioned a few days ago, the juries were brought in to be diverse and will be reminded of that I guarantee it. So that brings Jennifer Hudson into the fold. Honestly, what a mess to wade through. Thompson feels like the only lock.
ReplyCopy URLWhy does everybody assume Scanlan is a jury save in the first round? Bar Supp. Actress, After Love got the same mentions as Passing: British Film, Director, Actress, Screenplay and the almighty Casting. In fact, it’s one of the two movies that got long listed in Casting with just one acting mention (the other one is Tick Tick Boom). With that performance, her career and the film’s BIFA sweep, I totally see her being able to be Top 12 by vote.
ReplyCopy URLWhy does everybody assume Scanlan is a jury save in the first round? Bar Supp. Actress, After Love got the same mentions as Passing: British Film, Director, Actress, Screenplay and the almighty Casting. In fact, it’s one of the two movies that got long listed in Casting with just one acting mention (the other one is Tick Tick Boom). With that performance, her career and the film’s BIFA sweep, I totally see her being able to be Top 12 by vote.
It’s definitely possible but Passing also got Supporting Actress where we know Negga was Top 12. Scanlan feels like someone who would have been in the top 15 regardless but it was still the jury who technically put her there. Either way both Thompson and Scanlan are the frontrunners to be nominated so it doesn’t really matter which was picked by the previous jury.
ReplyCopy URLWhere is this fantasy that Tessa Thompson is a lock for a nomination coming from? She’s not getting nominated. Passing may technically be a “British film” but it really not so. I think it’s “hope-dicting”. Time will tell of course!
I think Joanna Scanlan was in the top 2, maybe with Olivia Colman. I think one of the two of them will win.
ReplyCopy URLWhere is this fantasy that Tessa Thompson is a lock for a nomination coming from? She’s not getting nominated. Passing may technically be a “British film” but it really not so. I think it’s “hope-dicting”. Time will tell of course!
I wish I could pin comments so I could come back to this for the nominations.
Firstly, wasn’t a big fan of Passing so your hope-dicting argument has already collapsed I’m afraid.
As I explained above the juries were brought in to increase diversity. Thompson is the only diverse contender in Actress that is also in a film that leans towards jury taste. One of her or Hudson at least is guaranteed as they won’t go all white. Given that Hudson’s film is the most basic here, Thompson is the one that is locked and it’s just a question for Hudson of if they care more about nominating another POC or another contender from more interesting content.
ReplyCopy URLWhere is this fantasy that Tessa Thompson is a lock for a nomination coming from? She’s not getting nominated. Passing may technically be a “British film” but it really not so. I think it’s “hope-dicting”. Time will tell of course! I think Joanna Scanlan was in the top 2, maybe with Olivia Colman. I think one of the two of them will win.
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I wish I could pin comments so I could come back to this for the nominations.
Firstly, wasn’t a big fan of Passing so your hope-dicting argument has already collapsed I’m afraid.
As I explained above the juries were brought in to increase diversity. Thompson is the only diverse contender in Actress that is also in a film that leans towards jury taste. One of her or Hudson at least is guaranteed as they won’t go all white. Given that Hudson’s film is the most basic here, Thompson is the one that is locked and it’s just a question for Hudson of if they care more about nominating another POC or another contender from more interesting content.
Hudson is much more likely to get a nomination than Tessa Thompson imo, and it will help her get her Oscar nomination too.
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This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.Hudson is much more likely to get a nomination than Tessa Thompson imo, and it will help her get her Oscar nomination too.
Please explain why you think a jury similar to last year’s one which picked the likes of Radha Blank, Alfre Woodard, Bukky Bakray and Wunmi Mosaku is going to be more likely to pick Jennifer Huston over Tessa Thompson.
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