February 10, 2019 at 8:34 pm #1202770792
Lets talk about the Big 8. How many BAFTA and Oscar winners will line-up?
Since 2000, here’s how they have lined-up
2017 – 6/8 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
2016 – 5/8 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
2015 – 6/8 (Picture, Supporting Actress)
2014 – 4/8 (Picture, Director, Both Screenplays)
2013 – 3/8 (Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, both screenplays)
2012 – 5/8 (Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
2011 – 6/8 (Both Screenplays)
2010 – 5/8 (Director, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress)
2009 – 5/8 (Adapted Screenplay, Actor, Actress)
2008 – 6/8 (Actor and Original Screenplay)
2007 – 6/8 (Adapted Screenplay and Picture)
2006 – 5/8 (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay)
2005 – 5/8 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress)
2004 – 4/8 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor)
2003 – 3/8 (Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)
2002 – 4/8 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
2001 – 1/8 (Supporting Actress was the only one correct)
2000 – 5/8 (Actor, Supporting Actress, Director)
At most, we have seen 6/8 winning. Which ones will match-up?
In recent years, the BAFTA Best Film has not matched up. It’s only about 45% (8/18) and on a 4-year losing streak.
Personally, I think Malek, Ali, Weisz, Cuaron will match. That’s at least 4 out of 8. That leaves picture, actress, and the two screenplay awards.
I am pretty sure the WGA awards will honor BKKK’s screenplay, so that’s another match.
That leaves Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay left over. If I were to forecast, I would say Picture matches, but Actress and Original Screenplay do not. Close wins Actress. Green Book wins Screenplay.
Whats say you?February 10, 2019 at 9:00 pm #1202770999
the favourite is winning original screenplayFebruary 10, 2019 at 9:10 pm #1202771030
I am predicting 6 of 8; Glenn Close and Regina King are in my predictions for Actress and Supporting Actress.February 10, 2019 at 9:13 pm #1202771038
imagine if favourite loses bp at bafta but wins at the oscarsFebruary 10, 2019 at 11:09 pm #1202771539
The Favorite will win Best Original Screenplay. I think it’ll be 7 out of 8 with Close winning Best Actress.February 10, 2019 at 11:11 pm #1202771540
So I have Roma winning BP, Curon taking Director, Malek winning Actor, Favourite and BlacKKKlansman taking screenplay awards, so that’s 5/8 matching for me. Ali is also most likely winning again, despite having just won two years ago. If Grant couldn’t even win at Bafta, I don’t see how he takes the Oscar. So that’s going to be 6/8.
Regina King and Glen Close will take their categories at the Oscars.February 10, 2019 at 11:31 pm #1202771552
Rachel Weisz is winning the Supporting Actress Oscar.February 11, 2019 at 1:00 am #1202771642
Glenn and Regina are taking the Oscars.February 11, 2019 at 1:53 am #1202771689
Updated Oscar predictions in main categories (bold is BAFTA winner):
BEST PICTURE – Roma (upsets : The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, A Star is Born)
BEST DIRECTOR – Alfonso Cuaron (no upsets)
BEST ACTOR – Rami Malek (no upset)
BEST ACTRESS – Glenn Close (no upset)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Regina King (upsets : Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Mahershala Ali (no upsets)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – The Favourite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – BlacKkKlansman
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – Roma
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – Shallow (no way there’s an upset here)February 11, 2019 at 4:33 am #1202771800
imagine if favourite loses bp at bafta but wins at the oscars
It might. It’s the most nominated film of the year and scored picture, director, screenplay, and editing nominations.
Keep in mind, that the Academy uses the preferential ballot system, and the BAFTAs use “straight up” system. We might indeed see a situation where Roma wins on the 1st round, but Green Book and The Favourite wins on the later rounds.
Tom Hooper won Best Director at the Oscars, but lost at the BAFTAs. So it’s not uncommon for a brit to lose at the BAFTAs, but win at the Oscars.February 11, 2019 at 4:47 am #1202771811
A lot of people are saying The Favourite will win Original Screenplay at the Oscars but I don’t see that happening. The Favourite DIDN’T get a Original Screenplay nomination at WGA which is why I don’t think it’ll win Screenplay.
I have a feeling The Favourite might pull an ‘American Hustle’ and not win anything.
It could win Costume and Production Design but I have a feeling Black Panther will win those.
We’ll probably get some surprise winners
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