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With the Picture race narrowing down to 1917 vs Parasite, and the acting races looking like guarantees what are your predictions below the line?
ReplyThere’s some categories here that are super up in he air and others that feel almost locked. I’ll put the locked categories in bold.
Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Film Editing: Ford v Ferrari
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design: Little Women
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Joker
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: Stand Up
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Visual Effects: The Irishman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best International Film: Parasite
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Cinematography: 1917 (alt: none)
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Editing: Parasite (alt: Ford v Ferrari)
Production design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (alt: 1917)
Costume design: Little Women (alt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Make-Up and Hair-styling: Bombshell (alt: Joker)
Sound mixing: 1917 (alt: none)
Sound editing: 1917 (alt: none)
Visual Effects: Avengers Endgame (alt: The Lion King)
Original score: Joker (alt: 1917)
Original song: Rocketman (alt: Harriet)Best Cinematography: 1917
Best Film Editing: Parasite
Best Production Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Costume Design: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Joker
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: Stand Up
Best Sound Mixing: 1917
Best Sound Editing: 1917
Best Visual Effects: The Irishman
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
Best International Film: Parasite
ReplyCopy URLI’m genuinely curious: why is everyone convinced that Joker is a lock for Score? I ask because Thomas Newman is seriously overdue and, as we’ve seen with the recent wins for Kevin O’Connell and Roger Deakins, the IOU factor matters, even with the below-the-line categories.
I know that Guðnadóttir won at the Globes and at Critic’s Choice, but those really aren’t the strongest precursors. I mean, Justin Hurwitz won both awards last year for First Man but then lost out on an Oscar nomination.
On the other hand, this is Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination and, if he loses this one, he would have one of the longest losing streaks in Oscar history. So I genuinely want to understand everyone’s conviction in Guðnadóttir.
ReplyCopy URLFirst Man is also the only film in the last decade to win both of these and not win the Oscar though, and that’s probably because was a minor film that struck out on nomination morning, missing out on a lot of categories people thought it was locked into (it also won multiple Editing precursors and failed to get nominated at the Oscars. Joker has 11 nominations including Picture, so it’s not the same situation.
The other reason is that Thomas Newman had never won at the Globes either, and was overdue there too (not sure about Critic’s Choice, can’t find the statistics on that one). But he still lost there. I actually loved his score in 1917 and thought any other year it would easily be my favorite of the year (except for maybe 2015: Inside Out was robbed that year). Sadly Thomas Newman seems to have really bad luck at the Oscars, always getting pitted against better and more worthy scores.
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I just switched to Parasite for editing since it won ACE, actually deserves it and Ford v Ferrari could not even win SAG stunts.
Oh damn, I didn’t even think of that. Yeah, the support for FvF seems pretty low right now. I still have it winning Editing for now, but with 1917 taking the sound categories I think it’ll probably come down to The Irishman vs Parasite in that category.
ReplyCopy URLStream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)
I’m genuinely curious: why is everyone convinced that Joker is a lock for Score? I ask because Thomas Newman is seriously overdue and, as we’ve seen with the recent wins for Kevin O’Connell and Roger Deakins, the IOU factor matters, even with the below-the-line categories. I know that Guðnadóttir won at the Globes and at Critic’s Choice, but those really aren’t the strongest precursors. I mean, Justin Hurwitz won both awards last year for First Man but then lost out on an Oscar nomination. On the other hand, this is Newman’s fifteenth Oscar nomination and, if he loses this one, he would have one of the longest losing streaks in Oscar history. So I genuinely want to understand everyone’s conviction in Guðnadóttir.
They probably feel Guðnadóttir’s score is the more traditional Oscar-winning score. But yeah, Thomas Newman can absolutely still win this. He needs BAFTA though.
ReplyCopy URLCostume Design-Little Women(or Once)
Production Design-Once Upon a Time in Hollywood(Or 1917)
Makeup & Hairstyling-Bombshell(Or Joker)
Cinematography-1917(Or Hell Froze Over)
Film Editing-Ford v. Ferrari(or Parasite)
Sound Editing-1917(Or Ford v. Ferrari)
Sound Mixing-1917(Or Ford v. Ferrari)
Visual Effects-1917(Or The Irishman)
Original Score-Joker(Or 1917)
Original Song-Rocketman(Or Harriet)
ReplyCopy URLIn the technicals I think the academy will bend over backwards to award the tech that “thematically” help their respective movie (aka Ex Machina for visual effects). Literally everyone who saw Parasite walked out of that movie talking about the Park family’s house. No other set from any of the other nominees gets talked about as part of the story like that. I think it will upset in production design if Neon keep reminding people about that house and how they built and flood the poor neighborhood themselves.
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