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Best Actor for 2020 Oscars (Part 2)

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  • Victor Cruz
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    This year is indeed weird. Have any other actor won for playing the same role as a past winner? that stat could hurt Phoenix chances. Renee could win, but I’ll wait for Box Office receipts before predicting her.

    JakeT
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    This year is indeed weird. Have any other actor won for playing the same role as a past winner? that stat could hurt Phoenix chances. Renee could win, but I’ll wait for Box Office receipts before predicting her.

    I think this has been asked and answered a few times: Brando /DeNiro for Don Corleone. I’m not convinced the fact that the role has been awarded before will be a huge factor, could be wrong though.

    Marcel
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    Phoenix is not winning for playing Joker. He can win SAG and he still won’t win Academy Award. Not gonna happen.

    You say that based on what evidence? Elaborate.

    John Berchmans
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    Another big problem Driver has is that Marriage Story could fraud it’s way into comedy categories at the globes to get more wins, which would pretty much kill Driver’s chances: Phoenix would be given a free win in Drama, and the Drama winner for Actor almost always wins the Oscar proper.

    For Your Consideration.

    Best Picture: Joker
    Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Joker

    Angela Lewis
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    Here’s my argument on why Adam Driver is more likely to win versus Joaquin Phoenix: while Phoenix’s portrayal of Joker equally rivals Heath Ledger’s performance, Joker as a whole is the most polarizing film at the moment. His performance would be considered too intense, too overindulgent for the voters’ tastes. With Driver, however, his performance is more personable, easier to digest, and gives the similar feels that classics like Kramer vs Kramer, Terms of Endearment, Ordinary People, and As Good as It Gets gave during their Oscar runs (which was very fruitful at the end). Plus, Adam’s having his career year, with another good performance (The Report), first Oscar and Tony nom, ending the year with one of the most anticipated movies (The Rise Of Skywalker). It’s Driver’s to lose.

    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  Angela Lewis.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  Angela Lewis.
    • This reply was modified 4 weeks, 1 day ago by  Angela Lewis.
    Cordelia
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    I do think this Adam Driver/Joaquin Phoenix race is going to at least be an interesting one. There’s a part of me that doesn’t want Robert De Niro to be a massive contender so that we can get a more heated race between two younger non-Oscar winners.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Weathering With You, Parasite, The Lighthouse
    Best Actor: Robert Pattison - The Lighthouse
    Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - The Lighthouse
    Best Animated Feature: Weathering With You, Promare
    Best International Film: Weathering With You, Parasite
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Do my forum games!

    https://www.goldderby.com/forum/games-lets-play-games/72nd-oscars-runner-up-5-elimination-

    thatnerdgreg
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    Another big problem Driver has is that Marriage Story could fraud it’s way into comedy categories at the globes to get more wins, which would pretty much kill Driver’s chances: Phoenix would be given a free win in Drama, and the Drama winner for Actor almost always wins the Oscar proper.

    I believe Marriage Story will go for the drama categories. Much like Three Billboards, it could go the easier route and go comedy where it’ll dominate, but I think the producers will realize what a strong contender it is and therefore let it enter the drama race where it won’t be as much of a sure bet, but still very strong for some big wins.

    Babygirl
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    Marriage Story going Drama would be a smarter move, people would take it more seriously and if it wins anything it would solidify it’s chances.

    JackO
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    Here’s my argument on why Adam Driver is more likely to win versus Joaquin Phoenix: while Phoenix’s portrayal of Joker equally rivals Heath Ledger’s performance, Joker as a whole is the most polarizing film at the moment. His performance would be considered too intense, too overindulgent for the voters’ tastes. With Driver, however, his performance is more personable, easier to digest, and gives the similar feels that classics like Kramer vs Kramer, Terms of Endearment, Ordinary People, and As Good as It Gets gave during their Oscar runs (which was very fruitful at the end). Plus, Adam’s having his career year, with another good performance (The Report), first Oscar and Tony nom, ending the year with one of the most anticipated movies (The Rise Of Skywalker). It’s Driver’s to lose.

    Polarizing to who though? Box Office currently predicts it to open to a 100M opening weekend. If/when public eats up Joker like they did Rhapsody, Phoenix could easily become the populist pick for Oscar.

    Though I’d concede that Driver is early fave for GG since GG hates superhero movies.

    Marcel
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    Polarizing to who though? Box Office currently predicts it to open to a 100M opening weekend. If/when public eats up Joker like they did Rhapsody, Phoenix could easily become the populist pick for Oscar. Though I’d concede that Driver is early fave for GG since GG hates superhero movies.

    Does that stop the movie from being considered polarizing? I classify Batman vs Superman as a polarizing movie, yet it had high box office numbers. The same applies to many box office hits. I would also mention The Passion of the Christ, Star Wars Episode 8, Lucy, Godzilla (2014) and many others.

    Babygirl
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    Polarizing to who though? Box Office currently predicts it to open to a 100M opening weekend. If/when public eats up Joker like they did Rhapsody, Phoenix could easily become the populist pick for Oscar. Though I’d concede that Driver is early fave for GG since GG hates superhero movies.

    Uh, there is divisive films the GP loves but critics/Academy voters aren’t fond of and vice versa.

    Nikhil
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    Assuming Joker is not in the best picture line up (currently predicting), Driver will remain the favorite and probably win the Oscar. This assumes Phoenix doesn’t go on a Julianne Moore Still Alice type sweep. This scenario is my prediction, so I think it is currently Driver’s to lose.

    However, if Joker makes it into BP and Phoenix isn’t sweeping with Driver and Phoenix splitting prizes throughout the season, then I think it’s Phoenix’s to lose- the showier performance gets the edge.

    Time will tell whether Joker makes it into lineups or not, but, I think this discussion is basically over if it does.

    JackO
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    Uh, there is divisive films the GP loves but critics/Academy voters aren’t fond of and vice versa.

    Critics. Don’t. Vote. Oscar.

    Angela Lewis
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    I meant in terms of there are people who think Joker is a masterpiece and those whose finds the film repulsive. You can go RT and see it for yourself. The GP and their intake of it doesn’t count. It’s up to the voters which a combo of the old and new guard. And we know how the Academy feels about comic book movies. Even thought Heath won for the same character and Black Panther was the first to be nominated for BP, lighting isn’t going to strike twice

    Angela Lewis
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    Neither do the GP. Especially the uproar of Green Book winning BP last time. They’re are going to be more sensible when it comes to picking winners. That’s why Adam has a better shot than Joaquin

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