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Best Actor odds 2021 September edition

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    Jasmine is French
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    #1203728057

    This Covid19 situation makes the talk of best actor like fresh air. But it is fresh air with few movies and performances to talk about.
    Its only September, but lets see how the field looks like right now:

    01. Anthony Hopkins – The Father
    02. Gary Oldman – Mank
    03. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

    Then:
    Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Colin Firth – Supernova
    Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
    Tom Hanks – News of the World
    Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
    Timothee Chalamet – Dune

    Possible:
    Shia LaBeouf – Pieces of a Woman

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    Foolio
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    #1203728112

    Presuming Boseman, Stanfield and Baron Cohen go Supporting:

    Frontrunners

    Anthony Hopkins, The Father
    Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
    Gary Oldman, Mank
    Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

    Next in line

    Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
    Tom Hanks, News of the World
    Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

    On the brink

    Timothee Chalamet, Dune
    Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
    Matt Damon, Stillwater
    Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

    Strong possibilities

    George Clooney, Good Morning, Midnight
    Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
    Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
    Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier
    Ansel Elgort, West Side Story

    Possibilities

    Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
    Mark Wahlberg, Good Joe Bell
    Ben Affleck, Deep Water
    John David Washington, Tenet
    Steven Yeun, Minari
    Armie Hammer, Rebecca
    Ben Affleck, The Way Back
    Kevin Kline, The Good House
    Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

    Longer shots

    Ashton Sanders, All Day and a Night
    Nicholas Hoult, Those Who Wish Me Dead
    Benedict Cumberbatch, Louis Wain
    Rob Morgan, Bull
    John Magaro, First Cow
    Tom Holland, Cherry
    Robert Pattinson, The Devil All the Time

    Theoretical possibilities

    Max Harwood, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
    Johnny Flynn, Stardust

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    wolfali
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    #1203728330

    Shia LaBeaouf, Pieces of a Woman

    Sebastian Stan in I, Tonya teas.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", GLENN CLOSE FOR "HILLBILLY ELEGY", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Brenda Meeks
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    #1203731204

    Riz Ahmed looks phenomenal in Sound of Metal! His reviews are stellar. I would love if he enters the Oscar discussion.

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    Stank83
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    #1203731416

    1. Hopkins
    2. Lindo
    3. Oldman
    4. Baron Cohen
    5. Hanks

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    gorman
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    #1203731424

    In terms of likelihood of a nomination:

    1. Hopkins
    2. Oldman
    3. Kaluuya
    4. Lindo
    5. Baron Cohen

    Next in lines would probably be Redmayne, Ben-Adir, Hanks and Mikkelsen.

    I still have Hopkins as a runaway winner, although Kaluuya could surprise. The only reason I don’t have him above Oldman in terms of nomination likelihood is the uncertainty around his placement and the fact Mank will probably be a bigger player. I view Oldman as akin to Leo last year – appears everywhere, but is never really discussed as a likely winner.

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    Stank83
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    #1203731994

    DiCaprio last year was third in terms of likelihood of winning, behind only Phoenix and Driver.

    I said it before, Kaluuya is too high in your list, it’s not obvious that he’ll get nominated when there’s Lindo and Cohen who have already critically acclaimed movies been seen, and Tom Hanks among the many competing actors this year.

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    David
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    #1203732020

    DiCaprio last year was third in terms of likelihood of winning, behind only Phoenix and Driver. I said it before, Kaluuya is too high in your list, it’s not obvious that he’ll get nominated when there’s Lindo and Cohen who have already critically acclaimed movies been seen, and Tom Hanks among the many competing actors this year.

    How is he too high on the list though??? He is a previous nominee who’s playing an iconic activist. The trailer blew everybody away mostly because of the charisma Kaluuya was displaying and it was just an amazing trailer overall. Like I said, I don’t think Cohen is gonna be a big factor in lead and his best chance is in supporting. It really does seem like you have something against Kaluuya bc it’s starting to show more than ever now.

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    Noe
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    #1203734696

    Riz Ahmed is getting that Oscar nomination.

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1203734760

    Riz Ahmed is getting that Oscar nomination.

    Should already have one for Four Lions & a win for Nightcrawler but better late than never.

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    Stank83
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    #1203734770

    1. Hopkins
    2. Lindo
    3. Oldman
    4. Holland
    5. Hanks

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203734961

    Oldman should not be ahead of Lindo.

    1. Hopkins

    2. Lindo (A close second, and potential first for me. Lindo’s performance is totally one they’ll go for and a lot of voters will be attracted to.)

    3. Kaluuya (It’s the kind of role that people will want to award for sure. Fiery, passionate, timely)

    4. Oldman (Nowhere near winning, but they will recognize him)

    5. Baren-Cohen/Hanks (If Chicago 7 is a powerful movie- not necessarily acclaimed, but if it makes enough waves- SBC will pull up)

    (The Academy is, I think, moving past the days of simply nominating veterans (Streep/Hanks) for serviceable performances in serviceable movies simply for who they are. Might be wishful thinking.)

    These 5/6 are the frontrunners by far. At this point, they’re well ahead of the next in lines- Ben-Adir, Phoenix, Redmayne, Driver. Chadwick Boseman will be Supporting.

    A few wildcards that can enter the ring depending on if the performances are strike a chord/the stars align- LeBeouf, Plemmons, Yeun, Cumberbatch.

    rubbish

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    Jasmine is French
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    #1203735025

    Riz Ahmed looks phenomenal in Sound of Metal! His reviews are stellar. I would love if he enters the Oscar discussion.

    Thanks for this info!

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203735432

    I said it before, Kaluuya is too high in your list

    Did Kaluuya refuse to sign you an autograph or something?

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    Jasmine is French
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    #1203735968

    I just watched the trailer for Sound of metal. And Riz is amazing in it! Now I am eager to watch that movie. The buzz is real for sure

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