Best Actor odds 2021 September edition

[Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 36 Posts: 1543 View Predictions]

#1203728057

This Covid19 situation makes the talk of best actor like fresh air. But it is fresh air with few movies and performances to talk about.
Its only September, but lets see how the field looks like right now:

01. Anthony Hopkins – The Father
02. Gary Oldman – Mank
03. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods

Then:
Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Colin Firth – Supernova
Kingsley Ben-Adir – One Night in Miami
Tom Hanks – News of the World
Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah
Timothee Chalamet – Dune

Possible:
Shia LaBeouf – Pieces of a Woman

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: Holy Spider
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia de Leon
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

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[Foolio Joined: Jan 24th, 2017 Topics: 2 Posts: 675 View Predictions]

#1203728112

Presuming Boseman, Stanfield and Baron Cohen go Supporting:

Frontrunners

Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Next in line

Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami
Tom Hanks, News of the World
Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

On the brink

Timothee Chalamet, Dune
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

Strong possibilities

George Clooney, Good Morning, Midnight
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Courier
Ansel Elgort, West Side Story

Possibilities

Shia LaBeouf, Pieces of a Woman
Mark Wahlberg, Good Joe Bell
Ben Affleck, Deep Water
John David Washington, Tenet
Steven Yeun, Minari
Armie Hammer, Rebecca
Ben Affleck, The Way Back
Kevin Kline, The Good House
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Longer shots

Ashton Sanders, All Day and a Night
Nicholas Hoult, Those Who Wish Me Dead
Benedict Cumberbatch, Louis Wain
Rob Morgan, Bull
John Magaro, First Cow
Tom Holland, Cherry
Robert Pattinson, The Devil All the Time

Theoretical possibilities

Max Harwood, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
Johnny Flynn, Stardust

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[wolfali Joined: Apr 8th, 2023 Topics: 249 Posts: 39047 View Predictions]

#1203728330

Foolio wrote:

Shia LaBeaouf, Pieces of a Woman

Sebastian Stan in I, Tonya teas.

Solidarity with the striking writers. Pay them the wages they are owed for bringing us the content we are all on here because of!

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[Monsoon 🌊 Joined: Aug 11th, 2020 Topics: 23 Posts: 2236 View Predictions]

#1203731204

Riz Ahmed looks phenomenal in Sound of Metal! His reviews are stellar. I would love if he enters the Oscar discussion.

👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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[Stank83 Joined: Mar 8th, 2020 Topics: 105 Posts: 2124 View Predictions]

#1203731416

1. Hopkins
2. Lindo
3. Oldman
4. Baron Cohen
5. Hanks

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[gorman Joined: Dec 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 1202 View Predictions]

#1203731424

In terms of likelihood of a nomination:

1. Hopkins
2. Oldman
3. Kaluuya
4. Lindo
5. Baron Cohen

Next in lines would probably be Redmayne, Ben-Adir, Hanks and Mikkelsen.

I still have Hopkins as a runaway winner, although Kaluuya could surprise. The only reason I don’t have him above Oldman in terms of nomination likelihood is the uncertainty around his placement and the fact Mank will probably be a bigger player. I view Oldman as akin to Leo last year – appears everywhere, but is never really discussed as a likely winner.

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[Stank83 Joined: Mar 8th, 2020 Topics: 105 Posts: 2124 View Predictions]

#1203731994

DiCaprio last year was third in terms of likelihood of winning, behind only Phoenix and Driver.

I said it before, Kaluuya is too high in your list, it’s not obvious that he’ll get nominated when there’s Lindo and Cohen who have already critically acclaimed movies been seen, and Tom Hanks among the many competing actors this year.

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[David Joined: Aug 18th, 2018 Topics: 4 Posts: 694 View Predictions]

#1203732020

Stank83 wrote:

DiCaprio last year was third in terms of likelihood of winning, behind only Phoenix and Driver. I said it before, Kaluuya is too high in your list, it’s not obvious that he’ll get nominated when there’s Lindo and Cohen who have already critically acclaimed movies been seen, and Tom Hanks among the many competing actors this year.

How is he too high on the list though??? He is a previous nominee who’s playing an iconic activist. The trailer blew everybody away mostly because of the charisma Kaluuya was displaying and it was just an amazing trailer overall. Like I said, I don’t think Cohen is gonna be a big factor in lead and his best chance is in supporting. It really does seem like you have something against Kaluuya bc it’s starting to show more than ever now.

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[Noe Joined: Feb 20th, 2014 Topics: 0 Posts: 193 View Predictions]

#1203734696

Riz Ahmed is getting that Oscar nomination.

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[Sir Shaw Joined: Aug 1st, 2019 Topics: 7 Posts: 1431 View Predictions]

#1203734760

Noe wrote:

Riz Ahmed is getting that Oscar nomination.

Should already have one for Four Lions & a win for Nightcrawler but better late than never.

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[Stank83 Joined: Mar 8th, 2020 Topics: 105 Posts: 2124 View Predictions]

#1203734770

1. Hopkins
2. Lindo
3. Oldman
4. Holland
5. Hanks

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[marty Joined: Aug 18th, 2020 Topics: 1 Posts: 1585 View Predictions]

#1203734961

Oldman should not be ahead of Lindo.

1. Hopkins

2. Lindo (A close second, and potential first for me. Lindo’s performance is totally one they’ll go for and a lot of voters will be attracted to.)

3. Kaluuya (It’s the kind of role that people will want to award for sure. Fiery, passionate, timely)

4. Oldman (Nowhere near winning, but they will recognize him)

5. Baren-Cohen/Hanks (If Chicago 7 is a powerful movie- not necessarily acclaimed, but if it makes enough waves- SBC will pull up)

(The Academy is, I think, moving past the days of simply nominating veterans (Streep/Hanks) for serviceable performances in serviceable movies simply for who they are. Might be wishful thinking.)

These 5/6 are the frontrunners by far. At this point, they’re well ahead of the next in lines- Ben-Adir, Phoenix, Redmayne, Driver. Chadwick Boseman will be Supporting.

A few wildcards that can enter the ring depending on if the performances are strike a chord/the stars align- LeBeouf, Plemmons, Yeun, Cumberbatch.

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[Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 36 Posts: 1543 View Predictions]

#1203735025

Monsoon 🌊 wrote:

Riz Ahmed looks phenomenal in Sound of Metal! His reviews are stellar. I would love if he enters the Oscar discussion.

Thanks for this info!

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: Holy Spider
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia de Leon
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

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[Joined: Jan 1st, 1970 Topics: 1 Posts: 1417 View Predictions]

#1203735432

This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.

[Lydia 3rd Oscar TAR Joined: Sep 22nd, 2011 Topics: 36 Posts: 1543 View Predictions]

#1203735968

I just watched the trailer for Sound of metal. And Riz is amazing in it! Now I am eager to watch that movie. The buzz is real for sure

2023 Oscar
Best Picture: Holy Spider
Best Director: Decision to Leave
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Actor: Brendan Fraser
Best Supporting Actress: Olivia de Leon
Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan

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