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Thought I’d continue the tradition of having Best Actress be discussed in it’s own officially titled thread. Let me know if this should be Part 4, Part 5, ect, instead of Part 3.
Anyway, we’ll get an even clearer image on who will get nominated next month in just a few hours when the SAG nominations are announced: I’m predicting Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, Ronan, and Streep, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Chastain or Stone gets nominated. Thoughts?
ReplyI would be shocked indeed if Stone gets a nod. Even Dench is probably more likely. If there’s going to be a SAG shockeroo in an acting category again, I feel it’s not going to take place here – the field is simply too stacked to make room for a surprise filler.
For all we know, S-Hawk, S-Ron, F-Dorm and M-Streep are locks, and M-Rob is probably fifth with J-Chas breathing down her neck. What we do not know is the pecking order; a compelling front-runner case could (and has been) made for anyone except J-Chas. My money is on S-Hawk for now but I could be dead wrong. I’m in love with the unpredictability here.
ReplyCopy URLI don’t think that Jessica Chastain is as big as a threat to Margot Robbie as Michelle Williams. For all we know, Christopher Plummer’s nod was all political, but Michelle Williams must have a good performance behind her. And with the late release and late breaking momentum, she could show up at BAFTA or something. But I think that those five seem pretty locked up.
ReplyCopy URLI don’t think that Jessica Chastain is as big as a threat to Margot Robbie as Michelle Williams. For all we know, Christopher Plummer’s nod was all political, but Michelle Williams must have a good performance behind her. And with the late release and late breaking momentum, she could show up at BAFTA or something. But I think that those five seem pretty locked up.
The M-Will nod at Globes could have been a spur-of-the-moment brainchild; the HFPA saw the movie before anyone else, at the last possible minute, and it was fresh in their minds – hence the three nods. I’m not sold on the movie being a player this season at all and would be surprised if C-Plum, R-Scott or M-Will ended up doing any damage in their respective categories in the long run. J-Chas has been praised since her movie was first seen and she’s been a consistent presence in precursors so she’s definitely in a stronger position than M-Will, even if the latter gives a good performance (and she always does).
ReplyCopy URLYeah, I don’t really see Williams as a threat for a nomination. Even Dench and Stone are likelier.
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ReplyCopy URLI’m starting to feel like a Dench nomination is possible too, although a snub is definitely likely as well. If voters are more passionate about Robbie, Ronan, and Streep, I don’t think Dench will make it. She’s an Academy favorite, yes, but she’s only gotten in twice for films that weren’t strong Oscar contenders: her first nod for Mrs. Brown in 1997 which was a very acclaimed performance with a real chance of winning(definitely does not correlate with this year) and her 5th nod for Mrs. Henderson Presents in 2005, which was an extremely weak year for Best Actress. In a much stronger and more crowded year, she would have struggled to get in for that performance.
That said, she has made it to SAG, GG, and most likely will get in at BAFTA. And the fact that she’s playing the same role as Mrs. Brown works well in her favor too. If she gets snubbed at BAFTA, she’s out of the race. If not, she may very well make it.
BTW, anybody have a rundown on how many critics prizes each Best Actress contender has won so far?
ReplyCopy URLMe if Judi Dench gets nominated over Margot Robbie, Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Annette Bening and Michelle Williams:
Have you actually seen Victoria and Abdul? She was fab. Don’t judge her on a preconception of her film’s quality.
(And also let’s not pretend any of those actresses, bar Bening, deserve to even be in the same breath as Dench when usually discussing actresses of quality)
ReplyCopy URLIndeed, La Dench is absolutely marvelous in Victoria & Abdul.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!
ReplyCopy URL1. Frances McDormand
2. Saoirse Ronan
3. Sally Hawkins
4. Meryl Streep
5. …I keep alternating between Dench and Robbie for the fifth slot.
I don’t think Stone or Chastain have enough momentum to get in.
Stone will likely return to the category within the next few years, possibly even with The Favourite. The decade’s early Lead Actress winners (Bullock, Portman, Streep, Lawrence, Blanchett) all managed another nomination within 6 years of winning. Stone will be the same. Not sure about Moore or Larson, though.
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TheRedBoy.
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