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Best Actress 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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    John Berchmans
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    The odds are heavily stacked against Zellweger right now. In the last 15 years, the only Actress to win for a single-nominated film was Juliane Moore, who had the benefit of weak competition. Even if Judy somehow manages to get 1-2 additional nominations (Makeup? Song?), the odds are still bad: only 5 of the last 15 Actress winners won for non-Picture nominated films. The Wife proved that a Picture nomination is almost required to win Actress now: Glenn swept nearly everything but still lost to Colman.

    Zellweger doesn’t have the overdue narrative on her side either-she already won for Cold Mountain, whereas Johansson has a massive overdue narrative after being snubbed for years on end. Plus, her film is a frontrunner for Picture, has better reviews and bigger buzz. I think Johansson is the one to beat: unless she has another epically bad PR blunder. But even then none of previous ones have really managed to diminish her status as a frontrunner, and bad PR didn’t affect Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody one bit.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203082365

    Just a slight correction ^ Colman won the BAFTA. So Glenn had a near sweep until Oscars.

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    TheDreamingHead
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    #1203082375

    Just a slight correction ^ Colman won the BAFTA. So Glenn had a near sweep until Oscars.

    Glenn Close Olivia Colman will be talked on and on in the next 100 years… like we should get over it

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1203082583

    Imagine thinking Scarlett Johansson is overdue for anything.

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    John Berchmans
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    this is actually a lot

    I meant to say 15. 33% is not good odds.

    Also to whoever mentioned the BAFTA’s, you’re technically correct, but Gleen did win pretty much every other acting award of note that season.

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    JakeT
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    #1203082667

    I meant to say 15. 33% is not good odds. Also to whoever mentioned the BAFTA’s, you’re technically correct, but Gleen did win pretty much every other acting award of note that season.

     

    This confused me for a minute – but I think what you actually meant is 33.33%? Not great, but not terrible either.

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    Mickmack
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    #1203082693

    The odds are heavily stacked against Zellweger right now. In the last 15 years, the only Actress to win for a single-nominated film was Juliane Moore, who had the benefit of weak competition. Even if Judy somehow manages to get 1-2 additional nominations (Makeup? Song?), the odds are still bad: only 5 of the last 15 Actress winners won for non-Picture nominated films. The Wife proved that a Picture nomination is almost required to win Actress now: Glenn swept nearly everything but still lost to Colman.

    Zellweger doesn’t have the overdue narrative on her side either-she already won for Cold Mountain, whereas Johansson has a massive overdue narrative after being snubbed for years on end. Plus, her film is a frontrunner for Picture, has better reviews and bigger buzz. I think Johansson is the one to beat: unless she has another epically bad PR blunder. But even then none of previous ones have really managed to diminish her status as a frontrunner, and bad PR didn’t affect Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody one bit.

    Johansson IS not overdue whatsoever.

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203082762

    Right now I believe Zellweger is gonna take it, but I can also see either Johansson or Ronan (obviously we have to wait to hear how he film and performance are received though) winning.

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    bellajoe
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    I genuinely don’t understand why people are so convinced on Zellweger. She’s a winner already, and despite Ali’s win last year, it’s still not incredibly common to win 2. I believe people think she’s gonna pull a McDormand, but Three Billboards and Judy are incredibly different movies, one was a BP frontrunner up until the ceremony itself, and Judy is expected to get nothing but actress.

    As such, Johansson is my frontrunner. If Bombshell isn’t great, Theron won’t win, and can anyone tell me with a straight face that Awkwafina or Cynthia Erivo will beat Johansson? I don’t mind Emma Stone’s victory, but you all do remember Portman had the better performance but missed out everywhere due to Jackie not being a frontrunner in important categories.

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    JackO
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    #1203083031

    The pattern is for previous winners to win again is for their film to be better than the one they won in. In Ali’s case his previous film won bP and then his next film won BP. SPOILER: Judy ain’t winning BP. Renee will most likely be the films sole nominee and we saw how that hurt Close last year. I’d agree that ScarJo is the nominal frontrunner for now but she seems to be an awfully soft frontrunner. Could see someone sneak in and take it in the end.

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    Mukund
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    #1203083036

    Also to whoever mentioned the BAFTA’s, you’re technically correct, but Gleen did win pretty much every other acting award of note that season.

    Both won Globe, one won SAG and one won BAFTA. Close won CC and Colman won AACTA. Close was never a decisive frontrunner if we are looking at it solely from the precursor haul.

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    Mukund
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    #1203083042

    The pattern is for previous winners to win again is for their film to be better than the one they won in.

    Cate Blanchett’s win doesn’t fit this pattern though. Even Christoph Waltz doesn’t.

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    GregSprinkles
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    #1203083063

    Stop this nonsense, Filler Ronan isn’t winning this year. She’s not even getting nominated. Little Women is gonna flop. Hard.

    There’s barely any contenders left in Best Actress. I wouldn’t be so quick to completely write off Ronan. Also, calling her filler is just wrong. She was definitely the runner up for Brooklyn, and most likely third place for Lady Bird (definitely no lower).

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