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Best Actress 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 3)

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  • Vicki Leekx
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    It’s crazy that ScarJo will likely get an Oscar nomination before Emily Blunt. ScarJo took over as Black Widow in the MCU once Blunt dropped out, and that role has made Scarlett a global superstar. Many believed that Blunt would continue to find success, especially with critics and awards, but now it looks like Johansson will beat Blunt to an Oscar nomination as well. I wonder how Blunt HONESTLY feels about this.

     

    Interesting comparison; both actors are the same generation, have been considered “overdue”, both proven their versatility in dramas, comedies, action movies, and can sing too. Blunt probably understands ScarJo has been in the game much longer than her however, despite their age difference, and was probably “due” by the time she only first came onto the scene. I mean, ScarJo was considered a rising star already and snubbed in 2003, whereas Blunt wasn’t particularly known until The Devil Wears Prada in 2006. So in a sense, Blunt has always been a few steps behind. Blunt seems like a genuine person, I’m sure she’ll be happy for ScarJo next year, and might even think “surely I’m next!” if she cares at all…she doesn’t strike me as the thirsty type, which was proven especially with how surprised she was at her recent SAG win.

    FYC:

    Antonio Banderas and Asier Etxeandia, Dolor y Gloria (Best Actor/Supporting Actor)
    Emily Beecham, Little Joe (Best Actress)
    Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (Best Actor/Actress)

    FairWeatherAffair
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    Nevermind the fact that Johansson regularly acts circles around Blunt…

    Bee
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    #1203084108

    Guys stop getting nasty with one another, this season everyone on here seems so much more rude. What is a racial quota? We all know Lupita is deserving… I will say the actresses of color are all contending for that last spot (because I do not currently predict Little Women and Bombshell will flop) but there are a multitude of reasoning for all of this.

    Lupita/Us: Lupita would likely be Us’ sole nomination, a la Renee. (Unless they get in for score too.) but Lupita does not have the same ‘narrative’ as Renee. She was by far the greatest aspect of that movie, and a nomination would be 100% warranted, but is it likely?

    Awkwafina/The Farewell: I currently have Awkwafina in right now because unlike many, I don’t think The Farewell is a non-factor just yet. Especially if 1917, Little Women, and/or Bombshell flop, if Jojo Rabbit, Ford v Ferrari, and/or Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood fizzle out, that leaves a spot for Farewell in picture, and if it gets picture, Awkwafina’s chances are much better.

    Alfre/Clemency: This has already been discussed a lot, but this movie is nowhere close to a nomination in any other category, plus similarities to Just Mercy (both films being about death row injustice) will be raised. The movie was also received very mixed. Anyone who has seen one of her projects knows she will deliver a worthy performance, but I highly doubt her nomination.

    Erivo/Harriet: Similar to Judy, Us, and Clemency, Erivo would probably be Harriet’s only nomination. I don’t see it getting into any of the tech categories, as it looks very TV movie to me. It could get song though, which could boost Erivo, but even then, her performance wasn’t unanimously praised, like Renee’s was.

    Saoirse/Little Women: Little Women is Greta Gerwig’s highly anticipated second film, which is currently projected to make a big impact in awards season (Picture, screenplay, director, supporting actress, maybe more.) So as of right now, it makes sense to predict Saoirse and not one of the other discussed actresses. Once the film releases, this could ALL change. If little women ends up being a Harriet or an Us, I could definitely see Erivo or Lupita taking that place, seeing as though Saoirse doesn’t have a whole lot of range.

    Theron/Bombshell: the hardest prediction. SO first and foremost, the subject matter of this film is very timely and very important, Theron is doing a transformative role, and she’s an Oscar winner already. Many seem sure she and Robbie will be nominated, and are waiting for the reactions before predicting it in categories like Picture or Screenplay.

    So I believe that is why people seem to be predicting 4 white actresses over the women of color. To me, Scarjo is the only 100% lock. Ranking by likelihood:

    1) Scarlett Johansson

    2) Saoirse Ronan*

    3) Renee Zellweger

    4) Charlize Theron*

    5) Awkwafina

    ————————-

    6) Lupita Nyong’o*

    7) Cynthia Erivo*

    8) Alfre Woodard

    *could flop, thus Nyong’o and Erivo would take those positions.

    By same narrative, do you mean the comeback aspect for Renee Zellweger? Cause other than that, they’re both Oscar winners in the supporting category competing for a nomination in the lead category and both received raves. The only reason Renee Zellweger is above her is cause her performance is traditionally baity and Judy is closer to awards season date (albeit in a flop month). I would argue that Lupita’s own narrative is that she is the female lead of the highest grossing original film of the year (other than OUATIH).

    I have Awkwafina in as well because I think critics will taken a liking to her even if she somehow misses a precursor (SAG).

    Tyler
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    Go watch her new ELLEN interview. She’s the coolest/sweetest and Ellen tells her that she’s the Oscar front-runner.

    I usually love Ellen but I hate that she does this with Oscar contenders (Kimmel does it too) because it gets really awkward when things don’t work out. I remember last year Kimmel asked Claire Foy who she was bringing to the Oscars

    ENGLAND
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    Its incredible that the excitement for ScarJo on here went completely down once she made her “Woody Allen” comments. For a moment, many, including myself thought she was going to take it all due to the reviews for her and her film. I do not like the comments she made but I hate how fragile award seasons can be. One mistake can cause someone an Oscar. If ScarJo gives the best performance, then she should be the winner. I guess I will have to wait and see. Renee and Lupita look like they have the most challenging roles, but I have to wait until I see all possible choices.

    If Glenn Close had waited until this year, she would have swept with no issue.

    One thing I just remembered was that Renee Zellweger was once huge star. Back when I cared nothing about cinema, I remember hearing her name a lot during the early 2000. She was like that last crop of Superstars during that early 00s era (Renee, Halle, Nicole, Angelina, etc)
    Her having a comeback alone will get her many votes.

    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  ENGLAND.
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by  ENGLAND.
    Bee
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    Harriet reviews getting worse. Down to a 59 on RT.

    JackO
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    Exactly. Thank you! Why would I be racist if I’m a minority myself? but that was also the point of the post. It’s actually Academy members thinking process as harsh as it sounds.

    This literally makes no sense. They just awarded King and Ali last year. They just nominated two foreign language performances without even hitting a precursor. This is simply a projection.

    BigJay2012
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    #1203084327

    Another thing Renee has in her favor is that people really like her are rooting for her….ala Sandra Bullock.

    wattsgold
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    I’m speaking objectively, cuz you know who my homegirls are, and my favorite will just probably never be close to an Oscar again.

    That said, could it be that the roles are just not that compelling. Look at the women this year:

    Scarlett: I like her, but how much will we get to know about her character, not just the wife, but the woman? Still I know this is pending to watch

    Charlize: She could bring something great to the role, but there’s no way of knowing how much of a villain/antihero they’re going to make her.

    Erivo: A key historical figure trapped in a mediocre movie. The essentials were there but the movie fails those, according to reports.

    Ronan: Movie looks nice, but isn’t this a character we know very well? I doubt she’s pulling a “Blue Jasmine”

    That leaves…

    Renee: Portrayal of a beloved artist which brings touching humanity through vulnerability and character-centered musical numbers

    Lupita: Character is a metaphor for social issues and personal struggles in a way that makes us excited about the unpredictability she brings.

    Last year we had Olivia with a role we never expected would connect that much. And I guess this year, the lack of passion is connected to what was a palpable criticism towards Close… the characters are perceived as boring/ been there done that.

    Thats my assessment this far, and maybe actual great performances are sadly being ignored.

    kellis
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    maybe actual great performances are indeed being ignored.

    Florence Pugh will agree with you.

    “No user starts this shady” - someone culturally relevant.

    Also got banned because...reasons? So, I guess ciao.

    wattsgold
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    Florence Pugh will agree with you.

    I’ve read great things about Pugh. Truth be told I haven’t watched the movie yet. After Hereditary (and well, life) I really need to stock my anxiety suppressor helpers before going into this one.

    Nikhil
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    I’m shocked at how thin Actress is this year

    Erivo, Ronan, Awkwafina, Theron, and Woodward are fighting for three remaining spots. Not sure what Jojo is planning on doing for Thomasin McKenzie but a lead push doesn’t seem out of the cards…

    I’m even starting to reconsider Queen and Slim now that it’s going to play at a festival

    Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIH

    Babygirl
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    #1203084476

    Johansson, Zellweger and Awkwafina are making it in imo, the rest will fight for the 2 remaining spots.

    JakeT
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    #1203084501

    I’m shocked at how thin Actress is this year Erivo, Ronan, Awkwafina, Theron, and Woodward are fighting for three remaining spots. Not sure what Jojo is planning on doing for Thomasin McKenzie but a lead push doesn’t seem out of the cards… I’m even starting to reconsider Queen and Slim now that it’s going to play at a festival

    I’m hoping Jodie Turner-Smith comes out of nowhere to shake up and otherwise dull race. Somebody has to.

     

    bellajoe
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    I’m hoping Jodie Turner-Smith comes out of nowhere to shake up and otherwise dull race. Somebody has to.

    I know this isn’t the supporting thread, but please Indya Moore too. But Queen and Slim looks too… enjoyable and mainstream to be a true Oscar behemoth.

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