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Best Actress 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 2)

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  • TheDreamingHead
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    As I said, Zellweger, Johansson and Erivo are safe. The two spots are basically up in the air with Ronan, Theron, Awkwafina, Lupita thrown into the mix, with longer shots for Woodard and Portman. Why are some people becoming so certain about Theron and Ronan? Nobody out of these 4 should be a lock yet…

    thatnerdgreg
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    I believe the nominees will be:

    Awkwafina, The Farewell

    Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

    Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

    Charlize Theron, Bombshell

    Renée Zellweger, Judy

    Right now, I think Zellweger will be the winner. However, I can picture scenarios where Johansson, Ronan, or Theron wind up victorious. I’d say the four of them are all locks for nominations. I don’t like saying that all but one person in a category is a lock, but this year is so scarce when it comes to contenders that I can say that without feeling overconfident. I can possibly see Cynthia Erivo taking Awkwafina’s slot, but I really don’t expect that to happen. Also, I think Alfre Woodard and Lupita Nyong’o are both non factors this year. Woodard’s film isn’t gonna make much of an impression at all thanks to getting some of the worst advertising I’ve ever seen, while Lupita’s movie is too much of a conventional horror flick to be embraced by Academy voters. Moving back to Erivo, the only thing that I think she really has going for her over Awkwafina is that she’s playing Harriet Tubman. And we saw last year with Ryan Gosling and First Man, even if you’re playing a legend, a lack of passion for your movie can stop your chances. Erivo got good reviews, but Awkwafina’s were just as good. In fact, based on what I’m seeing right now, Awkwafina’s reviews might’ve been a bit better, as I’m already seeing some criticism of Erivo’s work. Awkwafina also has a few other advantages over Erivo. The Farewell’s response was very positive, while Harriet’s is pretty lukewarm, The Farewell is being considered by many to be a legitimate Oscar contender in several key categories whilst Erivo is the only potential Oscar nod most people think Harriet can get, even though The Farewell didn’t make much of an impact on the box office, most people seem to think the same thing will happen with Harriet, Awkwafina is a much bigger name than Erivo (she’s really only famous in the theatre community), and Awkwafina has more goodwill in the film industry. That goodwill is almost entirely based on Crazy Rich Asians, but that film alone was much more successful than Widows and Bad Times at the El Royale from both a critical and commercial standpoint, making twice as much money than both of Erivo’s films combined, and earning a SAG nomination over Widows despite being made up of a group of much smaller names. So while I do think an Erivo nod is possible, the more I look into this category, the more the signs seem to point towards Awkwafina taking the 5th slot. Honestly it’s a real shame about Harriet though. Tubman’s story told well could’ve been a really big contender. Oh well.

    Lil Tony
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    Booksmart has a 97% on RT and 8.4 Metacritic… Could Kaitlyn Dever get in for Comedy Actress at the Globes?

    that’s one interesting piece that deserves at least Globes love. I so enjoyed Booksmart

    Taron Egerton (Rocketman) for best actor. Charlize Theron looks great in Bombshell teaser

    24fanatic
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    I feel like it’s important to wait for some of these movies to be released and watch how their reactions play out from the general public, box office and additional critics.

    Cynthia Erivo might be underestimated right now because her film received mild reviews (most complaints being that her film goes the typical boring biopic route). But what if the box office becomes huge for Harriet? What if a narrative is promoted about the legend never having a movie about her until now and that everyone must go see it? What if Oprah gets involved??? Campaigning and advertising could go a long way… and if it does… the reviews won’t matter as much. Ask last year’s 4-time Oscar-winning biopic film Bohemian Rhapsody.

    John Berchmans
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    why is Ervio a lock? Harriet’s reactions seem pretty muted

    Far better than this film though. I think she still has the advantage as a POC playing an important historical figure. As for Awkwafina, the buzz for her film is dead and I don’t think it’s being nominated for anything.

    I know this might be unpopular, but I don’t think Theron is even a lock for a nomination at this point given how little we know about Bombshell.

    Theron’s only a lock right now because of how weak this category is, and you can tell from the trailer she’ll be really good, even if the film isn’t.

    Victor Cruz
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    As I said, Zellweger, Johansson and Erivo are safe. The two spots are basically up in the air with Ronan, Theron, Awkwafina, Lupita thrown into the mix, with longer shots for Woodard and Portman. Why are some people becoming so certain about Theron and Ronan? Nobody out of these 4 should be a lock yet…

    Ronan is a lock unless little woman flops massively. That role had garnered acclaim before and Little Women will be on everyones radar just for the fact that its Gerwig second feature. I dont have the movie getting a BP nomination, but I think it’ll get Actress, Writing, Costumes and Production Design.

    I still have my money on Bombshell being the big awards contender this December. The cast, the subject matter. It’ll have better Box Office than people think. The movie overperformed pre release tracking numbers which means Its likely to overperform Vice at the Box Office and that made 80 million WW.

    • This reply was modified 4 days, 23 hours ago by  Victor Cruz.
    • This reply was modified 4 days, 23 hours ago by  Victor Cruz.
    Miles
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    I don’t think Erivo is happening. She would most likely be the only nominee from her film. That can happen with biopics with mixed reviews (My Week with Marilyn, The Iron Lady) but usually the performance has to be raved about it a big name has to be attached. This year Judy fits the bill, and Erivo, with good but not great notices for her performances, and little name recognition, is not getting in.

    Bee
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    I don’t think Erivo is happening. She would most likely be the only nominee from her film. That can happen with biopics with mixed reviews (My Week with Marilyn, The Iron Lady) but usually the performance has to be raved about it a big name has to be attached. This year Judy fits the bill, and Erivo, with good but not great notices for her performances, and little name recognition, is not getting in.

    I would tend to agree but this is Focus Features promoting bait, something they’re very good at. Harriet Tubman is an extremely baity role so she would have voters at least see her film just for her. Though, I don’t see her winning if it’s true that she’s unshowy like a lot of the reviews suggest. Plus, she’s caused a lot of shit for herself being that she has demeaned black Americans in her tweets.

    Awkwafina feels like a critics pick that would get in on passion votes but I think she would miss some precursors like SAG because her performance is very internal and since she isn’t a frontrunner, she could miss there to showier performances like Theron.

    But then again, I just got word on Bombshell that Theron isn’t as showy as we assume she will be and that Margot Robbie actually has the emotional part.

    ginnala
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    Awkwafina is currently one of hollywood’s biggest rising star. I don’t see her missing.

    Lil Tony
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    I would tend to agree but this is Focus Features promoting bait, something they’re very good at. Harriet Tubman is an extremely baity role so she would have voters at least see her film just for her. Though, I don’t see her winning if it’s true that she’s unshowy like a lot of the reviews suggest. Plus, she’s caused a lot of shit for herself being that she has demeaned black Americans in her tweets. Awkwafina feels like a critics pick that would get in on passion votes but I think she would miss some precursors like SAG because her performance is very internal and since she isn’t a frontrunner, she could miss there to showier performances like Theron. But then again, I just got word on Bombshell that Theron isn’t as showy as we assume she will be and that Margot Robbie actually has the emotional part.

    OMG!!! I hope you’re wrong on Theron. She’s long overdue for a third try. I really want Robbie to happen too

    Taron Egerton (Rocketman) for best actor. Charlize Theron looks great in Bombshell teaser

    Edgar Pereira
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    Ronan is a lock unless little woman flops massively. That role had garnered acclaim before and Little Women will be on everyones radar just for the fact that its Gerwig second feature. I dont have the movie getting a BP nomination, but I think it’ll get Actress, Writing, Costumes and Production Design.

    I still have my money on Bombshell being the big awards contender this December. The cast, the subject matter. It’ll have better Box Office than people think. The movie overperformed pre release tracking numbers which means Its likely to overperform Vice at the Box Office and that made 80 million WW.

    Personally, I think that both Theron and Ronan won’t be nominated simultaneously: two late December performances. But I believe one of them will get a spot in nominees shortlist. I know Ronan is an AMPAS darling these days and Jo March fits the profile of her last 2 nominated roles, but Winona Ryder’s performance is still so fresh (and perfect) in my mind that I can’t see Ronan getting nominated (I can’t really explain). Theron has been overlooked in the 2010’s and she has one of the most interesting post-Oscar win careers – plus, it’s a transformative role and it is the “#MeToo movie” (and she has the chops). Of course BOMBSHELL has to be well-received

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
    https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/

    I Don’t Need You
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    Y’all seem to ignore how incredibly weak this year’s Best Actress is. They’re getting nominated..

    Victor Cruz
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    OMG!!! I hope you’re wrong on Theron. She’s long overdue for a third try. I really want Robbie to happen too

    Robbie has the emotional part
    Theron has the transformative part

    showy doesn’t mean emotional.

    Victor Cruz
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    Y’all seem to ignore how incredibly weak this year’s Best Actress is. They’re getting nominated..

    EsOS
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    The buzz for Awkwafina will be back since she’s almost definitely winning the comedy globe(supposing Theron goes drama).

    GIVE LENA HEADEY HER EMMY

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