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Best Actress 2020 Oscar Predictions (Part 2)

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  • Luca
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    #1203058762

    Lupita Nyongo is NOT getting in. She’s been forgotten. If Collete couldn’t do it. She won’t do it either. The race is between: 1) Scarlett Johansson- Marriage Story(NETFLIX) 2) Renee ZellWeger- JUDY(ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS) 3) Charlize Theron- Bombshell (Lionsgate) The other two spots will be between Soairse Ronan, Awkwafina, Cynthia Erivo. Who else?? Alfre Woodard maybe. But I doubt 3/5 will be late release nominees. Theron- December 20 Ronan- December 25 Woodard- December 27. Woodard’s film is coming out too late and making very little at the Box Office like Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool. While Theron and Ronan will have wide releases. And their films will get more attention.

    I need to push back on this: “Us” and “Hereditary” are completely incomparable. The former made much more money, was more widely seen and has more mainstream appeal than the latter. Yes, both were controversial, but B and D+ CinemaScores are still a big difference. Plus, Nyong’o is a recent Oscar winner, who was in one of last year’s biggest movies and plays dual roles in “Us.” Hence, I don’t think the genre is enough to draw parallels between Collette and Nyong’o.

    As for the rest of the race: Zellweger will probably be the movie’s only big nomination (maybe a few below the line), same with Erivo (unless it surprises). We don’t know anything about Bombshell yet, but my guess is that regardless of how good or bad it is, it will attract controversy because of its subject matter. It could easily still be an eight-time nominee like “Vice,” and I doubt that Theron will underwhelm. But still, it’s unclear. Then there’s Alfre Woodard in Clemency, which is premiering WAY too late, and I fear it might not make any noise. Ronan & Johansson (and maybe Theron) seem like the only ones that will be in BP nominees. So, maybe Nyong’o is not completely out of this.

    Emmy voters must bend the knee to Lena Headey & Emilia Clarke for "Game of Thrones." It's their last chance to award them. Make it happen.

    I Don’t Need You
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    #1203058814

    stay pressed

    She campaigned hard and was in one of the most talked films of the year. The moment she received CC SAG and GG as a result of her campaign in December she locked that Oscar nod.

    Edgar Pereira
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    #1203058826

    I need to push back on this: “Us” and “Hereditary” are completely incomparable. The former made much more money, was more widely seen and has more mainstream appeal than the latter. Yes, both were controversial, but B and D+ CinemaScores are still a big difference. Plus, Nyong’o is a recent Oscar winner, who was in one of last year’s biggest movies and plays dual roles in “Us.” Hence, I don’t think the genre is enough to draw parallels between Collette and Nyong’o.

    As for the rest of the race: Zellweger will probably be the movie’s only big nomination (maybe a few below the line), same with Erivo (unless it surprises). We don’t know anything about Bombshell yet, but my guess is that regardless of how good or bad it is, it will attract controversy because of its subject matter. It could easily still be an eight-time nominee like “Vice,” and I doubt that Theron will underwhelm. But still, it’s unclear. Then there’s Alfre Woodard in Clemency, which is premiering WAY too late, and I fear it might not make any noise. Ronan & Johansson (and maybe Theron) seem like the only ones that will be in BP nominees. So, maybe Nyong’o is not completely out of this.

    It actually makes sense. Actually, if CLEMENCY’s late release doesn’t get preceeded by some early screenings for critics and indie prizes consideration, then Woodard spot would be empty and Lupita could take it. I truly believe the AMPAS will want to have 2 black actresses nominated in this category and it would be Erivo and either Woodard or Nyong’o – because, as someone stated somewhere the past (and only) time 2 black actresses were nominated simultaneously was back in 1973 (Tyson V. Diana Ross). I believe the AMPAS will WANT to buy this narrative. Then, Zellweger (The Comeback), Johansson (The Overdue Superstar) and either Theron (the chameleon) or Ronan (the young prodigy Aka Academy darling)

    Edgar Pereira
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    Cinema and Popcorn
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    Dana S.
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    I think it became pretty clear in recent years that industry doesn’t really care about controversies when giving out Oscars.
    On the contrary, the industry seems to like to show everybody who’s the boss. I mean people on twitter and in media wrote a lot of  angry posts and articles about controversies re: BohemianRap or Green Book or whatnot.
    And then industry gave awards to those movies, actors playing in those movies and etc. Industry’s answer to those angry posts and articles is “You are not gonna decide who’ll  get the Oscar, only we can decide that”.
    The only deal breakers these days, I think,  are if the person is accused of rape, murder or really heavy sexual harassment towards colleagues.

    So any outrage against ScarJo  because she said those things won’t harm her Oscar chances, on the contrary it’ll make them stronger, cause industry will likely rally behind her.

     

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by  Dana S..
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by  Dana S..
    I Don’t Need You
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    #1203058878

    Erivo is honestly not happening.

    Victor Cruz
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    #1203059031

    1) The Question is which Best Actress vehicles will have broad appeal with the Academy. Us will not have the same reaction with the industry Get Out had. Unless Nyong’o starts getting some big critics prizes which will probably go to Awkwfina and Johansson then I dont see her happening. Usually those early contenders happen because of the critics push. Get Out, Black Panther, Mad Max, Grand Budapest Hotel, Midnight in Paris, etc.

    2) Alfre Woodard film will flop massively at the Box Office. She also needs a big critics push and big wins like NYFCC and LAFCA to be in the conversation like Isabelle Huppert for example.

    3) Ronan(Greta Gerwig second feature) and Theron(Me too and Big Acclaimed Ensemble cast)don’t need any push. Their films will be seen. They have wide releases and will make decent money. For example if you look at the Bombshell teaser post on Theron, Kidman, and Robbie instagram. Its Reese Witherspoon, Natalie Portman, The Rock, Sara Paulson, and Many other big celebrities being excited for the film. The cast alone will get Academy members intrigued.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by  Victor Cruz.
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 5 days ago by  Victor Cruz.
    Vicki Leekx
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    #1203059104

    I’m excited for Queen Helen to crash this party, and probably drag Ian with her…the drama

    manakamana
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    Erivo is honestly not happening.

    She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).

    Tyler
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    I don’t see how Woodard happens unless she becomes a consensus critics pick (which I think Awkwafina and ScarJo will prohibit). Her film is just too small and dreary. In terms of actresses-only films, I suspect voters will be watching Judy, Harriet, and Us before Clemency.

    Also, I just realized how similar The Farewell  and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are. Both involve a comedic actress going drama (McCarthy is more respected than Awkwafina but nonetheless), are critical darlings, female directed/written, are likely in around 9-12th in the picture race and have their strongest shots in the lead, supporting, and screenplay categories. McCarthy also started to get doubted around the fall of last year but then she hit every precursor, so I wonder if Awkwafina slipping away right now is only temporary. CYEFM? had a better awards release date, but The Farewell has made twice as much money,

    I Don’t Need You
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    She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).

    Why are you so sure she has the performance or the potentially good reception? Anyway, that 5th spot is a toss up, the Globes along with Critics Choice will get to decide. It’ll be a Willem Dafoe (at least GG + CC noms, unless it’s Erivo who will probably get BAFTA too) like last year pick. But I truly believe Streep is winning the comedy Globe (if Johansson goes drama) so she’ll ultimately become the frontrunner for 5th spot regardless her film’s reception.

    Nikhil
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    Why are you so sure she has the performance or the potentially good reception? Anyway, that 5th spot is a toss up, the Globes along with Critics Choice will get to decide. It’ll be a Willem Dafoe (GG + CC) like last year pick. But I truly believe Streep is winning the comedy Globe (if Johansson goes drama) so she’ll ultimately become the frontrunner for 5th spot regardless her film’s reception.

    I think the bigger risk is that Harriet could suck. I think she is way more likely than the movie is in picture and I’m not taking her out until I see it. However, with Zellweger taking one spot for Judy, idk how many “great performance in a non best picture nominee” slots there are left…

    I Don’t Need You
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    I think the bigger risk is that Harriet could suck. I think she is way more likely than the movie is in picture and I’m not taking her out until I see it. However, with Zellweger taking one spot for Judy, idk how many “great performance in a non best picture nominee” slots there are left…

    Well, if you see all the potential picture nominees, you’ll see that only a handful of movies have female leads, so it’s just Johansson, unless Bombshell does well at least critically but I still think the competition will be too big for it to get nominated. Correct me if I’m wrong on anything else, but yeh all the rest 4 spots will be for non picture nominees, and that is the main reason Johansson is the frontrunner.

    Nikhil
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    Well, if you see all the potential picture nominees, you’ll see that only a handful of movies have female leads, so it’s just Johansson, unless Bombshell does well at least critically but I still think the competition will be too big for it to get nominated. Correct me if I’m wrong on anything else, but yeh all the rest 4 spots will be for non picture nominees.

    Oh that’s a good point. Although, I’m predicting Little Women and Ronan in Lead. So 3 spots for me. Not a ton of female led projects in the conversation unfortunately. Maybe that’s a good thing for Bombshell.

    thatnerdgreg
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    #1203059390

    She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).

    I think you’re really overestimating her. There’s currently very little hype for her film, and what’s been so far has been deemed unimpressive by many. Also, while I don’t see her saying something cataclysmically bad, Erivo’s been called somewhat of a diva, so her pissing people off isn’t really that far fetched (pretty sure there’s still a few Great Comet fans who hold a grudge against her, but that’s a long story that doesn’t have anything to do with this year’s race).

    I Don’t Need You
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    #1203059412

    Oh that’s a good point. Although, I’m predicting Little Women and Ronan in Lead. So 3 spots for me. Not a ton of female led projects in the conversation unfortunately. Maybe that’s a good thing for Bombshell.

    Oh yeah, I forgot about Ronan.

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