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September 5, 2019 at 6:20 am #1203058826
I need to push back on this: “Us” and “Hereditary” are completely incomparable. The former made much more money, was more widely seen and has more mainstream appeal than the latter. Yes, both were controversial, but B and D+ CinemaScores are still a big difference. Plus, Nyong’o is a recent Oscar winner, who was in one of last year’s biggest movies and plays dual roles in “Us.” Hence, I don’t think the genre is enough to draw parallels between Collette and Nyong’o.
As for the rest of the race: Zellweger will probably be the movie’s only big nomination (maybe a few below the line), same with Erivo (unless it surprises). We don’t know anything about Bombshell yet, but my guess is that regardless of how good or bad it is, it will attract controversy because of its subject matter. It could easily still be an eight-time nominee like “Vice,” and I doubt that Theron will underwhelm. But still, it’s unclear. Then there’s Alfre Woodard in Clemency, which is premiering WAY too late, and I fear it might not make any noise. Ronan & Johansson (and maybe Theron) seem like the only ones that will be in BP nominees. So, maybe Nyong’o is not completely out of this.
It actually makes sense. Actually, if CLEMENCY’s late release doesn’t get preceeded by some early screenings for critics and indie prizes consideration, then Woodard spot would be empty and Lupita could take it. I truly believe the AMPAS will want to have 2 black actresses nominated in this category and it would be Erivo and either Woodard or Nyong’o – because, as someone stated somewhere the past (and only) time 2 black actresses were nominated simultaneously was back in 1973 (Tyson V. Diana Ross). I believe the AMPAS will WANT to buy this narrative. Then, Zellweger (The Comeback), Johansson (The Overdue Superstar) and either Theron (the chameleon) or Ronan (the young prodigy Aka Academy darling)
- This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Edgar Pereira.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 2 weeks ago by Edgar Pereira.
Cinema and Popcorn
https://cinemaandpopcorn.blogspot.com/September 5, 2019 at 6:42 am #1203058857
I think it became pretty clear in recent years that industry doesn’t really care about controversies when giving out Oscars.
On the contrary, the industry seems to like to show everybody who’s the boss. I mean people on twitter and in media wrote a lot of angry posts and articles about controversies re: BohemianRap or Green Book or whatnot.
And then industry gave awards to those movies, actors playing in those movies and etc. Industry’s answer to those angry posts and articles is “You are not gonna decide who’ll get the Oscar, only we can decide that”.
The only deal breakers these days, I think, are if the person is accused of rape, murder or really heavy sexual harassment towards colleagues.
So any outrage against ScarJo because she said those things won’t harm her Oscar chances, on the contrary it’ll make them stronger, cause industry will likely rally behind her.September 5, 2019 at 6:57 am #1203058878This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.September 5, 2019 at 7:48 am #1203059031
1) The Question is which Best Actress vehicles will have broad appeal with the Academy. Us will not have the same reaction with the industry Get Out had. Unless Nyong’o starts getting some big critics prizes which will probably go to Awkwfina and Johansson then I dont see her happening. Usually those early contenders happen because of the critics push. Get Out, Black Panther, Mad Max, Grand Budapest Hotel, Midnight in Paris, etc.
2) Alfre Woodard film will flop massively at the Box Office. She also needs a big critics push and big wins like NYFCC and LAFCA to be in the conversation like Isabelle Huppert for example.
3) Ronan(Greta Gerwig second feature) and Theron(Me too and Big Acclaimed Ensemble cast)don’t need any push. Their films will be seen. They have wide releases and will make decent money. For example if you look at the Bombshell teaser post on Theron, Kidman, and Robbie instagram. Its Reese Witherspoon, Natalie Portman, The Rock, Sara Paulson, and Many other big celebrities being excited for the film. The cast alone will get Academy members intrigued.September 5, 2019 at 8:25 am #1203059104
I’m excited for Queen Helen to crash this party, and probably drag Ian with her…the drama
Antonio Banderas and Asier Etxeandia, Dolor y Gloria (Best Actor/Supporting Actor)
Emily Beecham, Little Joe (Best Actress)
Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (Best Actor/Actress)September 5, 2019 at 10:25 am #1203059317
I don’t see how Woodard happens unless she becomes a consensus critics pick (which I think Awkwafina and ScarJo will prohibit). Her film is just too small and dreary. In terms of actresses-only films, I suspect voters will be watching Judy, Harriet, and Us before Clemency.
Also, I just realized how similar The Farewell and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are. Both involve a comedic actress going drama (McCarthy is more respected than Awkwafina but nonetheless), are critical darlings, female directed/written, are likely in around 9-12th in the picture race and have their strongest shots in the lead, supporting, and screenplay categories. McCarthy also started to get doubted around the fall of last year but then she hit every precursor, so I wonder if Awkwafina slipping away right now is only temporary. CYEFM? had a better awards release date, but The Farewell has made twice as much money,September 5, 2019 at 10:41 am #1203059357This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.September 5, 2019 at 10:47 am #1203059369
Why are you so sure she has the performance or the potentially good reception? Anyway, that 5th spot is a toss up, the Globes along with Critics Choice will get to decide. It’ll be a Willem Dafoe (GG + CC) like last year pick. But I truly believe Streep is winning the comedy Globe (if Johansson goes drama) so she’ll ultimately become the frontrunner for 5th spot regardless her film’s reception.
I think the bigger risk is that Harriet could suck. I think she is way more likely than the movie is in picture and I’m not taking her out until I see it. However, with Zellweger taking one spot for Judy, idk how many “great performance in a non best picture nominee” slots there are left…
Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIHSeptember 5, 2019 at 10:50 am #1203059376This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.September 5, 2019 at 10:55 am #1203059384
Well, if you see all the potential picture nominees, you’ll see that only a handful of movies have female leads, so it’s just Johansson, unless Bombshell does well at least critically but I still think the competition will be too big for it to get nominated. Correct me if I’m wrong on anything else, but yeh all the rest 4 spots will be for non picture nominees.
Oh that’s a good point. Although, I’m predicting Little Women and Ronan in Lead. So 3 spots for me. Not a ton of female led projects in the conversation unfortunately. Maybe that’s a good thing for Bombshell.
Top 3 Films of the Year: Parasite, The Farewell, OUATIHSeptember 5, 2019 at 10:56 am #1203059390
She’d have to say something cataclysmically bad to not be nominated (like, something bad enough for white twitter to also be upset over).
I think you’re really overestimating her. There’s currently very little hype for her film, and what’s been so far has been deemed unimpressive by many. Also, while I don’t see her saying something cataclysmically bad, Erivo’s been called somewhat of a diva, so her pissing people off isn’t really that far fetched (pretty sure there’s still a few Great Comet fans who hold a grudge against her, but that’s a long story that doesn’t have anything to do with this year’s race).September 5, 2019 at 11:10 am #1203059412This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.September 5, 2019 at 11:12 am #1203059416
I think if Harriet gets Judy level reviews there would only be room for one of Cynthia or Renee. And I’d say Renee has the leg up on that as she’s already been seen and has reviews out.September 5, 2019 at 1:20 pm #1203059625
Why are you so sure she has the performance or the potentially good reception? Anyway, that 5th spot is a toss up, the Globes along with Critics Choice will get to decide. It’ll be a Willem Dafoe (at least GG + CC noms, unless it’s Erivo who will probably get BAFTA too) like last year pick. But I truly believe Streep is winning the comedy Globe (if Johansson goes drama) so she’ll ultimately become the frontrunner for 5th spot regardless her film’s reception.
and why are you so sure she doesn’t have the performance or potential Good reception? Wait till TIFF
Joker Deserves Everything.
Joaquin Phoenix is the Man
Cynthia Erivo should win best actress
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