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Best Actress Predictions (Part 14)

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    Bee
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    Oct 25th, 2016
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    #1203273277

    Is anyone else a bit weary on Charlize? I was underwhelmed- by the movie and performance. And I don’t see it as the lock or living up to the buzz (expectations were super high). I wonder if voters might feel the same. I actually thought Kidman and Gretchen Carlson was the more interesting story.

    Charlize is still most likely in but I just feel Renée, Scarlett, Saorise, Awkwafina, Lupita ana Cynthia have more going for them, including passion behind their films/performances.

    Yeah she was just okay in a lackluster film. Last time the voting was in this much of a time constraint was in 2012, which had very unusual snubs like Ben Affleck, John Hawkes, Kathryn Bigelow, Quentin Tarantino etc., I’m not brave enough to predict a snub for Charlize though.

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    linecelts
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    #1203273368

    Lupita wins Hollywood Critics Association and the Alliance of Women Journalists. That’s 25 wins overall so far.

    I’m gonna wait until after the CC Awards and the Oscar nominations are revealed. If Lupita wins the CC and she makes the Oscar nominations then I’m going to say she will be a THREAT

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    Sugar
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    Dec 24th, 2019
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    #1203273391

    Charlize Theron will be snubbed at the Oscars.

    Scarlett Johansson will win the SAG over Renee Zellweger.

    Remember this comment.

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    Pranksalot
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    #1203273397

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/oscar-nominations-2020-predictions-using-math-1268369?__twitter_impression=true

    probability of nomination using statistics

    1. Renee 97.2

    2. Charlize 89.2

    3. Scarlet 89.2

    4. saoirse 63.7

    5. Cynthia 59.1

    6. Awkwafina 41.4

    7. Lupita 39.6

    I wish Lupita would switch with Cynthia. Lupita gave a better performance than her, and to be honest better than most of the potential nominees in my opinion.

     

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    Faux architect
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    Mar 29th, 2017
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    #1203273408

    If Charlize gets snubbed again, she’s Hanks territory.

    Pantheon of acting: Uta / Elizabeth / Richard / Sandy (Virginia Woolf), Bibi / Liv (Persona), Sandrine (La Ceremonie), Brie (Short Term 12), Jodie (Silence of the Lambs), Jodie (Killing Eve), Eva (Penny Dreadful), Timothée (CMBYN), Lupita (Us)

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    Jason Travis
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    #1203273433

    Charlize Theron will be snubbed at the Oscars.

    Scarlett Johansson will win the SAG over Renee Zellweger.

    Remember this comment.

    God I hope not.

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    13K Subscribers, 29 Million Views

    FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017

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    Jason Travis
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    #1203273435

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/oscar-nominations-2020-predictions-using-math-1268369?__twitter_impression=true

    probability of nomination using statistics

    1. Renee 97.2

    2. Charlize 89.2

    3. Scarlet 89.2

    4. saoirse 63.7

    5. Cynthia 59.1

    6. Awkwafina 41.4

    7. Lupita 39.6

    I wish Lupita would switch with Cynthia. Lupita gave a better performance than her, and to be honest better than most of the potential nominees in my opinion.

    How is Lupita 7th? She’s won 25 awards. Statistic wise, wouldn’t that place her first?

    Follow Me on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/jasonmovieguy
    13K Subscribers, 29 Million Views

    FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017

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    Foolio
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    #1203273442

    How is Lupita 7th? She’s won 25 awards. Statistic wise, wouldn’t that place her first?

    Any statistical calculation worth its salt will take into account that certain awards carry more weight than others. As per Hollywood Reporter: “My method weights data from other awards shows based on how predictive that data has been in the past.”

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    linecelts
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    #1203273458

    https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/oscar-nominations-2020-predictions-using-math-1268369?__twitter_impression=true

    probability of nomination using statistics

    1. Renee 97.2

    2. Charlize 89.2

    3. Scarlet 89.2

    4. saoirse 63.7

    5. Cynthia 59.1

    6. Awkwafina 41.4

    7. Lupita 39.6

    I wish Lupita would switch with Cynthia. Lupita gave a better performance than her, and to be honest better than most of the potential nominees in my opinion.

    I don’t pay attention to the stats

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    RobScottDays
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    #1203273474

    Has Renee even won any Critics awards for Judy? These wins by Lupita have got to mean something. I don’t recall ever seeing someone sweep this many critics awards and then not do well with the big ones. Feeling even more confident Renee’s GG win was just because the HFPA likes her.
    In fact, I feel comfortable at the moment placing her in 3rd behind both Lupita and Scar.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by RobScottDays.
    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by RobScottDays.
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    Lil Tony
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    Sep 17th, 2018
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    #1203273489

    I’d be so happy with Awkwafina’s nomination but she isn’t one of the best of 2019. Here is why. Because Elisabeth Moss and Michelle Williams gave much better performances than Cynthia Erivo and Awkwafina. Constance Wu and Felicity Jones were better than Cynthia Erivo. Cynthia Erivo wasn’t bad but there was something off with her performance. Yet, Erivo is still being speculated to get in.

    Felicity Jones was Razzie worthy in a silly film. Constance Wu is good but not better than Cynthia Erivo. Awkwafina is overrated.

    Cynthia Erica is actually better than Scarlett Johansson and even Renée Zellweger.

    FYC:

    Chromatica: Album of the Year, Best Pop Vocal Album.

    Rain On Me: Song of the Year, Record of the Year, Best Pop Duo/Group Performance, Best Music Video.

    Alice: Best Pop Solo Performance

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    jman02
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    #1203273505

    I don’t recall ever seeing someone sweep this many critics awards and then not do well with the big ones.

    Ethan Hawke (29 awards, highest in BActor category) – no Oscar nomination
    Toni Collette (11 awards, 2nd highest in BActress category) – no Oscar nomination

    And that was just last year.

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    linecelts
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    #1203273519

    Ethan Hawke (29 awards, highest in BActor category) – no Oscar nomination
    Toni Collette (11 awards, 2nd highest in BActress category) – no Oscar nomination

    And that was just last year.

    Toni ONLY won 11, Lupita won 25 and maybe more coming PLUS she had a lot more to do in the film (doppleganger, the scary voice and dancing, if that was her) than Toni and Ethan. Yes, it was disappointing with Ethan Hawke winning 29 critic awards and not even make the GG, SAG, BAFTA nor Oscar nomination.

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    Victor Cruz
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    #1203273559

    How is Lupita 7th? She’s won 25 awards. Statistic wise, wouldn’t that place her first?

    Most of them mean nothing. Only one that means something for her is NYFCC. Also, she missed the Globe, BAFTA, AACTA. Which are the nominations that really matter.

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    Keth
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    Dec 2nd, 2011
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    #1203273569

    Most of them mean nothing. Only one that means something for her is NYFCC. Also, she missed the Globe, BAFTA, AACTA. Which are the nominations that really matter.

    I would think a SAG nomination would have a bigger impact than the Globes since actors nominate actors in both SAG and Oscar races. BAFTA is a little worrisome, but I still think, or at least hope, Lupita will get an Oscar nod on Monday. She’s in my top three along with Renee (happening) and Mary Kay (not happening).

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