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To begin with, I am a big fan of Blade Runner 2049 and I do think that the film has the best cinematography of the year. So based on merit alone, Deakins should win the Oscar. And of course, he has the IOU factor in his favour. And as evidenced with Kevin O’Connell’s win last year, IOU factors do play a role.
However, the last five winners for Cinematography have coincided with the winners for Directing. With Guillermo del Toro locked to win for Directing, will Dan Lausten reap the benefits? Or is this still Deakins’s year?
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Deakins should win, Lausten will win. I don’t know how many Oscar voters are even watching Blade Runner 2049, which still has the stink of being a box office failure. While I think the movie is a masterpiece on a purely technical leve, I recognize the movie is very slowly paced, and that might bore a lot of voters who could end up not even finishing the nearly 3 hour long film on their screeners. That’s another thing, BR 2049 is a movie you HAVE to see in a theater in order to get the full experience of, otherwise I believe you will be significantly more easily bored in the comfort of your own home watching on a small screen. I was lucky enough to see Blade Runner 2049 at the Cinerama, Seattle’s biggest movie theater on a 95 foot wide screen, and it enhanced my enjoyment of the film tremendously. It is very likely I might have outright hated the film had I rented it from Redbox and watched it on my TV.
La La Land, The Revenant, Birdman, Gravity, and Life of Pi all won Cinematography and Director at the Oscars hand in hand. Don’t bet against a trend. Deakins can and I think will win at Bafta, but then lose ASC and the Oscar to Lausten. Then again, TSOW has 12 Bafta nominations to BR’s 8, so maybe Deakins will lose their too. I just don’t buy the hype that Roger Deakins is such a consensus favorite just because his fanboys really want that to finally happen.
ReplyCopy URLHe’ll win at BAFTA pretty easily, in fact Hoytema would be his only (and very slight) competition there. They award him properly, and considering that they love both the original and 2049, I have no doubt he wins there. This time around he is definitely winning, much like Kevin O’Connell last year. O’Connell was the most overdue nominee without a win with 21 nominations. I believe Deakins is tying for second most overdue nominee now (with Thomas Newman), and he is the most overdue of the nominees this year. Last year no one thought the Academy would reward him because no one knew who he was, yet they obviously did and they rewarded him. Deakins has practically worked with everyone and he is now the Meryl Streep or John Williams of his category. I believe he will win the Oscar with little competition.
ReplyCopy URL@gustavocruzesilva Isn’t it obvious? He has even said in interviews he doesn’t care about winning an Oscar. He’s like McDormand, only she’s the frontrunner in a potential (much as I know you hate hearing it) Best Picture winner, while Deakins’ competition includes the other big Picture frontrunner this year, The Shape of Water.
@andymaccamcgaw Bafta may like this new Blade Runner, but don’t forget that it still got snubbed for Picture in spite of having 8 nominations. The Shape of Water they genuinely loved, as evidenced by it getting into Picture, Screenplay, and 2 acting nominations. The Bafta really like BR 2049, but they clearly LOVE TSOW. Don’t underestimate Deakins’ competition this year. Rememeber True Grit and Skyfall recently, the former of which he actually did win the Bafta for and the latter of which he won ASC? I will only feel safe in predicting Deakins to win the Oscar after he wins both ASC and Bafta. Otherwise, I’m convinced it will be Dan Lausten for Shape of Water on that Oscar stage.
ReplyCopy URL@gustavocruzesilva Isn’t it obvious? He has even said in interviews he doesn’t care about winning an Oscar. He’s like McDormand, only she’s the frontrunner in a potential (much as I know you hate hearing it) Best Picture winner, while Deakins’ competition includes the other big Picture frontrunner this year, The Shape of Water.
@andymaccamcgaw Bafta may like this new Blade Runner, but don’t forget that it still got snubbed for Picture in spite of having 8 nominations. The Shape of Water they genuinely loved, as evidenced by it getting into Picture, Screenplay, and 2 acting nominations. The Bafta really like BR 2049, but they clearly LOVE TSOW. Don’t underestimate Deakins’ competition this year. Rememeber True Grit and Skyfall recently, the former of which he actually did win the Bafta for and the latter of which he won ASC? I will only feel safe in predicting Deakins to win the Oscar after he wins both ASC and Bafta. Otherwise, I’m convinced it will be Dan Lausten for Shape of Water on that Oscar stage.
I don’t think BAFTA love SoW that much. All the nominations the film had there were pretty much expected and they didn’t nominate Richard Jenkins, which was very surprising considering he had all the important precusors and eventually was nominated for the Oscar. However, BR 2049 clearly over performed. It didn’t receive the Best Film nomination because the category was very disputed. But it still receive an unexpected directing nom (that was a form to recognize the film in something important since it hadn’t opportunity in the main prize), plus Costume Design, Score and even Makeup.
ReplyCopy URLOne positive in Deakins’s favor is that this cinematography nomination isn’t for some run-of-the-mill sci-fi film or a one-off like “Prisoners.” This is the sequel to fucking “Blade Runner.” That level of name recognition will mean a significant amount to Academy voters. The film overperformed at both Oscars and BAFTAs, but not with the public (same with the original, so it’s in good company there). The media should really play up Deakins’s overdue factor, but that’s not happening. Wish Deakins cared more about winning, and that Lausten wasn’t in there as his biggest competition in the nods frontrunner for an effects-laden spectacle that voters are prone to honoring in the past. Morrison could make history, but I doubt many have seen “Mudbound” to know of her work. I could see a vote split of sorts between Delbonnel and Hoytema, though their films couldn’t be more different. It’s even odds for Deakins, basically.
ReplyCopy URLI happen to think Deakins is third, with both Dunkirk and The Shape of Water ahead.
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ReplyCopy URLRoger Deakins should have been a multiple time winner by now.
I hope he would finally win for Blade Runner, but in a year like this is too tempting to make history with the first female winner. Or they could just go with Best Picture winner.Bottom line: he deserves to win, but I doubt he will.
ReplyCopy URLLol, people are trying to make Rachel Morrison happen? She’s a non factor.
The director/cinematography connectin is probably not that important, yes the last several have won but from 2000-2011 they only matched up once so that’s far from a sure thing. It makes sense those two categories would match up frequently, doesn’t mean they always will. Blade Runner also already won Critics Choice which has had a good track record of picking the winner. With Blade Runner overperforming at Bafta, I don’t think there’s any way Deakins loses there. He should have no problem winning ASC either.
Let’s not make this category more difficult than it is, at least not until Deakins actually loses Bafta or ASC.
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