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Best Director 2019 Oscar & DGA Predictions

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    #1202700013

    I am surprised I never see a Best Director thread.

    There are two locks for Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron and Bradley Cooper. I think the DGA will give them both awards as Cooper is a first-time director. For the Oscars I believe Cuaron will and shoudl win as his film is a masterpiece.

    The 3 other slots are incredibly volatile. Spike Lee, Yorgos Lanthimos, Barry Jenkins, Peter Farrelly, Adam McKay, Damien Chazelle, Ryan Coogler and I will throw in John Krasisnky as all viable for the 3 other slots for the Oscar nomination. This is a really tough one to call.

    My only reservation about Spike Lee is that he has never been nominated for Best Director before and I don’t think he’s particularly well liked by the director’s branch. I am still predicting him but nervously.

    My reservation about Lanthimos is that he missed at the Golden Globes.

    My reservation about Jenkins that I have the feeling it’s going to be this year’s Carol, doing well in precursors but not faring well at the Oscars. I think he will get a screenplay nomination and Regina King and Nicholas Britell (for his score) will also be nominated.

    Peter Farelly seems more secure to me but he isn’t all that well known and has never been in the conversation before. His directing is terrific though and I think this will carry him to his first Best Director nomination.

    Adam McKay’s achille heel is my belief that Vice will bomb at the box office and will be divisive.

    Damien Chazelle’s movie didn’t do well at the box office but I have a feeling he will be this year’s Bennett Miller, who was nominated for Foxcatcher without a BP nomination for the film. Even if First Man misses in BP I have a gut feeling that First Man will appeal to the mostly older white males in the director’s branch.

    While I disliked Black Panther intensely – imperialistic and mean-spirited – I know that others love this movie. I think Black Panther is going to do great and get a ton of nominations. Still it’s an action movie and they don’t always fare well.

    I put John Krasinski’s name on my list of 10 possible nominees despite his being at 100-1 odds because the movies biggest achievement is its stellar direction.

    As of now I am predicting Chazelle, Cooper, Cuaron, Farrelly and Lee.

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    Anonymous
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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202700037

    ^Time will tell about Vice. I was careful to say “my belief” as it hasn’t happened yet.

    Obviously I am predicting Lee so I agree with you. The directors branch can and has been surprising in the past and usually when there is a big shocker it often comes in this category.

    My prediction of Chazelle didn’t have anything to do with the quality of the direction, just a hunch that the movie appeals to a certain segment of the academy voters, esp. in the director’s branch.

    As for first time directors besides Cooper at the DGA’s I am hoping for Paul Dano for Wildlife and expecting Bo Burnham for Eighth Grade. I think I read that Josie Rourke is a first-time director with Mary, Queen of Scots. Trying to think of some other viable candidates.

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    Anonymous
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    OneAndOnlyMe.
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    #1202700056
    • Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
    • Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
    • Spike Lee, Blackkklansman

    I feel confident in those 3 with the buzz they have been getting. But those last two spots I can’t decide. Having seen Beale Street, Barry Jenkins work is amazing but I feel with the lack of marketing and buzz around the film he may fail to get in. Though Lanthimos was quite amazing with The Favourite, is technique really leads me to believe that he will be snubbed with his weird style. Chazelle did great work but First Man’s failure with precursors really has doubt around a nomination. Coogler And Farrelly seem to be rising but my gut tells me Farrelly will miss nomination morning. If the Academy really likes Black Panther I could see them giving him a nomination. From what I have heard, Vice is getting love from the Academy leading me to believe McKay will get in. Marshall has a very small chance but I could see a scenario where Mary Poppins has a huge box office and the audiences carry the film with passion barely pushing him into the Top 5. If the Academy loves Can You Ever Forgive Me?,  I could see Heller getting in so they don’t deal with the whole gender issue again. I would love Krasinski but I don’t really think he has a chance. So I really dont know.

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    Foolio
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    #1202700191

    Frontrunner

    Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

    Next in line

    Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
    Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
    Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

    On the brink

    Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
    Adam McKay, Vice
    Peter Farrelly, Green Book
    Damien Chazelle, First Man

    Possibilities

    Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
    Paul Schrader, First Reformed
    Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
    Steven McQueen, Widows

    Theoretical possibilities

    Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
    Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
    Bob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
    Tamara Jenkins, Private Life
    Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
    Karyn Kusama, Destroyer
    Chloe Zao, The Rider
    John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
    George Tillmann Jr., The Hate U Give
    Mimi Leder, On the Basis of Sex
    Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians

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    AWDubay
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    #1202700196

    Frontrunner

    Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

    Next in line

    Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
    Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
    Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

    On the brink

    Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
    Adam McKay, Vice
    Peter Farrelly, Green Book
    Damien Chazelle, First Man

    Possibilities

    Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
    Paul Schrader, First Reformed
    Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
    Steven McQueen, Widows

    Theoretical possibilities

    Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
    Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots
    Bob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns
    Tamara Jenkins, Private Life
    Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
    Karyn Kusama, Destroyer
    Chloe Zao, The Rider
    John Krasinski, A Quiet Place
    Paul Greengrass, 22 July
    George Tillmann Jr., The Hate U Give
    Feliz van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
    Mimi Leder, On the Basis of Sex
    Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians

    Only change i feel is that Farley is going to the fifth spot .

    Andrewsart.etsy.com

    Check out my online store 🙂

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    Marcus.H
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    #1202700219

    Adam McKay will get into the race. Bookmark me

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    "One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest(1975)"[All Time Fav]

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    Luca
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    #1202700309

    I have two words: Alfonso Cuarón.

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    JackO
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    #1202700359

    I think Farrelly is done and dusted after Green Book missed SAG.

    DGA predictions

    Coogler
    Cooper
    Cuaron
    Lee
    McKay

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    Xander Cassel
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    #1202700370

    This seems to be Spike Lee’s to lose, at least to me. Not only does the Academy have the chance to award their first black director ever, but also to award the most infamously-snubbed black director (Do The Right Thing).

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    Seven
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    #1202700381

    Cuarón should and will win it. But I could see Spike Lee pulling through

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    Dorsey
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    #1202700447

    I’ve got the same underdog gut feeling about Spike Lee as a couple other posters do. I think he gets nominated for sure, and could actually win.

    Cuaron
    Lee
    Cooper
    Lanthimos
    McKay or Jenkins

    brb stanning Adam Driver

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    Jazzy
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    #1202700456

    Lee is definitely going to win. Cuaron fucked up by doing the cinematography in Roma. He should’ve let someone else do it. The Academy is going to award Roma with Best Foreign Language Film and Cuaron with Best Cinematography, but they’re going to give Best Director to Lee. I don’t like the idea of Lee winning because his movie was just average, but they’ve never had a black winner, so they’re gonna do it now. Lee deserved an Oscar at some point, just not for this.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202700463
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