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January 22, 2020 at 10:50 am #1203298983
I don’t think this is based on any concrete data. Just the understanding that Parasite has more complete and masterful directing, which the directors branch of the Academy is likely to recognize, as opposed to the bigger groups that have voted in the other awards.
The directing of 1917 was probably more challenging but this doesn’t really translate to a better directed movie. It’s important to remember that when movies like Roma, La La Land and Birdman won Best Director, they didn’t have just the most showy direction, they were also arguably the best period.January 22, 2020 at 11:01 am #1203298998
Well…even as someone who actually really liked JOKER and felt it deserved its Picture nomination, I certainly don’t agree that Todd Phillips out directed Bong Joon-ho or Sam Mendes.
I do think Mendes is still going to win this and the only thing that would make me consider switching my prediction is if Bong somehow pulls off a DGA upset, which seems possible though not super likely.
I would gladly have Mendes win if it somehow meant PARASITE could take Picture and Screenplay. The only thing that would make me livid is if HOLLYWOOD somehow made a comeback to take Picture and Screenplay.
“The art of making art is putting it together...”January 22, 2020 at 11:12 am #1203299020
I’d be shocked if Parasite wins DGA to be honest. 1917 just has all the markings of a Director win: frontrunner in Cinematography, huge technical achievement, made it into Screenplay despite lack of a story. Plus Mendes already won the Globe and CC, and Director almost always rewards the frontrunner. The last time there was an upset Afleck didn’t even get nominated. Parasite’s chances lie with the WGA and Original Screenplay: not with the DGA’s and Director.
Parasite: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay
Joker: Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix
Jojo Rabbit: Best Adapted ScreenplayJanuary 22, 2020 at 12:10 pm #1203299152
You’re right that DGA has almost always lined up with precursors. In the past 20 years, the only times that GG Director winner lost in DGA was to a PGA winner, who then went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars:
– Golden Globe’s winner Hugo lost DGA to The Artist, which won PGA and BP at the Oscars;
– Boyhood lost to Birdman;
– The Social Network lost to The King’s Speech;
– Avatar lost to The Hurt Locker;
– Gangs of New York lost to Chicago;
– The Diving Bell and the Butterfly lost to No Country for Old Men.
The only time this wasn’t the case was 2002 when Altman won GG for Gosford Park, which wasn’t nominated in the first place at DGA.
Again, all of the latter films won PGA (and eventually Oscar BPs). Since Parasite lost PGA, the chance for it sees slim. No film has ever won SAG and DGA without also winning PGA.January 22, 2020 at 5:29 pm #1203299523
Parasite is a special case though, because if we are going with the premise that it’s going to win Best Picture (which is what a DGA win would suggest) that would mean that it should have won PGA. The only reason it didn’t, in that scenario, would be that the producers didn’t want to vote for it because it’s foreign.
Because of the foreign factor, Parasite can be the first movie ever to win all the other guilds without winning PGA. Just like OUATIH, because of its ineligibility for WGA, can be the first movie ever to win Best Picture withough winning any guild.January 22, 2020 at 7:19 pm #1203299612
I am looking at the Experts predictions and I see a lot of Parasite for DGA.
Though Mendes is completely deserving to be considered for Best Director, I don’t think there’s enough to put him over Bong. 1917 is a fantastic film heavy-laden with cinematography and technical brilliance…but for me, that’s it. It didn’t pull me emotionally as I would’ve expected nor did it offer a message any different from Dunkirk or Saving Private Ryan. Yes, the single-shot made you feel like you’re there, but I felt in order to get there I needed Deakins’ cinematography. IMO he had just as much of a role in making the film look & feel the way it did as Mendes.
Whereas Bong had a lot more to work with in order for the film to succeed the way it did. For instance, making the humor work in a foreign language, blending different genres to work seamlessly, and infusing social commentary without it being in your face. Every shot & frame I felt had a purpose. The pacing from start to end was perfect. The acting ensemble was incredible…not one character was weak. One after the other, Bong hit it out of the park. It’s why you’re hearing a lot of people calling this film a masterpiece. It’s why Bong is still in this to win, and IMO is the deserving winner.
"This is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules."January 23, 2020 at 8:59 am #1203300205
It’s interesting because I believe Sam Mendes will win DGA easily. Assuming that he does I am wondering aloud how often if ever when PGA and DGA are in agreement does another film win BP? For the record: Bong Joon-ho would be an excellent winner, and is my #2 choice and I would be fine with it.January 23, 2020 at 9:14 am #1203300222This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 23, 2020 at 9:15 am #1203300224
I wouldn’t give “experts” too much credit. Not saying Mendes is a lock, but I wouldn’t rely on their predictions.January 23, 2020 at 3:00 pm #1203301060
It is hard to grapple with because the industry is responding to Parasite overall and we all see it as a directorial achievement, but this is just one of those things. The industry does not seem to share the sentiment for whatever reason, as demonstrated somewhat by its non-starting in the cinematography race. I have come around to the idea that no matter what happens in picture, Mendes is winning and Bong is losing. Maybe it is like whatever is happening with actors, where they can award the ensemble without singling out any individual performances.January 23, 2020 at 4:06 pm #1203301398
Mendes will take this, Bong’s best shot is screenplay.January 24, 2020 at 4:25 am #1203302065
I am wondering aloud how often if ever when PGA and DGA are in agreement does another film win BP?
It’s happened five times:
1995: Apollo 13 lost to Braveheart
1998: Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love
2005: Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash
2013: Gravity lost to 12 Years a Slave (they tied at PGA)
2016: La La Land lost to Moonlight
Of course there were individual factors that led to each of these films losing so it’s hard to make comparisons.
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