January 4, 2017 at 2:12 pm #1201979610
It should also be pointed out that the Experts here have La La Land, Moonlight, Lion, Jackie, as the most likely nominees. If this were to happen, that would mean that it least 4/5 nominees would be first timers, which just never happens – in the last 20 years, only in 2006 were 3 nominees first timers.
All this to say that if GG are meant to ‘feel the pulse’ of Oscar night, this is why they do it so badly.January 15, 2017 at 2:13 pm #1201988483
BAFTA & BFCA win & Globe win & Satellite win:
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
BAFTA & BFCA & Globe:
Lion (Hauschka & Dustin O’Halloran)
BAFTA & BFCA:
Jackie (Mica Levi)
BFCA & Globe:
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)
Globe & Satellite:
Hidden Figures (Pharrell Williams & Benjamin Wallfisch)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)
The BFG (John Williams)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)January 15, 2017 at 2:16 pm #1201988484
I have The BFG, Kubo and the Two Strings, La La Land, Moonlight and Nocturnal Animals.
I’m conflicted over not having Lion in, though. I might switch it out with Moonlight at the last minute.January 15, 2017 at 3:05 pm #1201988495
After BAFTA I now have the same as manakamana except Florence Foster Jenkins instead of Moonlight. Florence is jazzy and more impressive than Desplat’s Oscar-snubbed score for The Danish Girl, so I’m thinking this could be a Philomena situation where Desplat misses Globe and BAFTA but the Academy branch see him through. I’m now thinking I’d previously underestimated Nocturnal Animals here; Abel Korzeniowski’s been doing steady work for a while and this would seem like a perfect time for the rather insular music branch to recognise him.January 15, 2017 at 6:38 pm #1201988600
La La Land
Hacksaw RidgeJanuary 15, 2017 at 7:28 pm #1201988643
BAFTA & BFCA win & Globe win & Satellite win: La La Land (Justin Hurwitz) BAFTA & BFCA & Globe: Lion (Hauschka & Dustin O’Halloran) BAFTA & BFCA: Jackie (Mica Levi) BFCA & Globe: Moonlight (Nicholas Britell) Globe & Satellite: Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer & Pharrell Williams & Benjamin Wallfisch) BAFTA: Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski) Satellite: The BFG (John Williams) Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams) The Jungle Book (John Debney)
Piggy-backing off my cinematography post, I would approach critics groups with extreme caution when it comes to technical categories. BAFTA is probably the best bellwether, but even they can be off by 2-3 and it’s not uncommon for Oscar to nominate someone entirely unseen by other awards groups.
La La Land and BFG seem safe. I’m hesitant about Lion – it probably has the same overlap of voters who nominated Theory of Everything and The Imitation Game – your typical poppy/maudlin score – but I feel they’d all be voting for La La Land.
Film composers adore Thomas Newman so I wouldn’t count him out, but for Passengers, not Finding Dory. They like to nominate him when he does something new/challenging, and don’t seem to mind if it’s for something mediocre (Series of Unfortunate Events and The Good German were both nominated without precursor awards).
Also hesitant about Moonlight. Brittel has been doing good work for a few of years, but this branch really doesn’t go for Indies. What with studio orchestras and music budgets getting cut left and right, I think they prefer to award films that invest in the music (i.e. acoustic and orchestral). Call them old fashioned, but they’re protecting themselves – they don’t want studios to think they can just have a drummer come in and improvise the score, so Birdman gets disqualified. Similarly, Arrival gets disqualified for pre-existing music; I suspect this is largely done to discourage studios from resorting to temp tracks and allowing composers greater artistic license.
Jackie seems like it would get championed by the same people who nominated Mr. Turner a few years ago. As Eddy Q said, Nocturnal Animals also seems likely as that composer has been around long enough. Giacchino had to get snubbed for The Incredibles before he got nominated for Ratatouille. Korzeniowski got his snub out of the way with A Single Man, so his time has come.
That’s 5, but it’s a tough year. Florence Foster and Kubo seem probable, it’s just a matter of guessing weather they’ll sway insular or exclusionary. Usually it’s the former.January 15, 2017 at 7:42 pm #1201988661
Jackie and Nocturnal Animals have the sorts of mind-blowingly incredible, idiosyncratic original scores that so often get pushed aside for more generic fare. John Williams and Alexandre Desplat are totally getting in.
For the finest in film reviews and awards analysis, please visit me at The Awards Connection!January 16, 2017 at 1:24 am #1201988790
La La Land is winning and I would say that Lion is pretty safe. It is an emotional film and the score lives up to that. I might not nominate it myself, but I can see how it appeals to the academy. One score that I definitely would not nominate is Hidden Figures, but I feel like the academy likes the occasional light-hearted dramedic score (Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks).
Moonlight is tricky. That is not a film that makes me think “music”; seems more like a critic thing. But the film’s Golden Globe win reminded me of the interesting score that it has. I have this in my predictions for now, but I can theoretically be swayed. Jackie is too weird and Nocturnal Animals probably is too, but I admit that I do not remember the score for the latter.
If it were up to me, Alexandre Desplat might have won the last two years for The Imitation Game and The Danish Girl, but I was really underwhelmed by his work on Florence Foster Jenkins, which seemed almost non-existent to me. If he could not get in for The Danish Girl, I really do not see him getting in for this.
I hear a lot of buzz for Kubo and the Two Strings here, but where are the nominations? How to Train Your Dragon hit a lot of the precursors; Kubo and the Two Strings was miraculously snubbed for its score by even the Annies.
I have The BFG in because John Williams, but I am nervous about this because there is a limit to name-checking. Meryl Streep does not literally get nominated every year that she is eligible, nor does Roger Deakins or John Williams. When they do get nominated, we usually have plenty of warning and Williams has gotten pretty much nothing for this.
Someone who we might be way underestimating is James Newton Howard for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Howard has a habit of getting nominated out of nowhere. In fact, only one of his six previous Oscar nominations in this category was foreshadowed by any of the four precursors that I highlighted above. I have not seen the film yet (maybe tomorrow), so how is the score? I also have no reason for not having Michael Giacchino for Rogue One. Is it good? Should I bump The BFG and Moonlight for these two? Hacksaw Ridge?January 16, 2017 at 1:58 am #1201988796
Because this year had many weird and unusual scores I think it would be remiss of the Academy to not vote for one or even two. Jackie would be the obvious choice, so I have it down for a nomination. Moonlight and La La Land had stunning scores so they have to be locks. Lion is too baity for them to ignore, so the final spot would be open for anyone. I would love The Neon Demon to get nominated, as the score was the only good thing about the film. But I’m quite certain that Hidden Figures will round out the category, especially because it had the name (Hans Zimmer).January 16, 2017 at 9:54 am #1201988938
I was really underwhelmed by his work on Florence Foster Jenkins, which seemed almost non-existent to me. If he could not get in for The Danish Girl, I really do not see him getting in for this.
I have The BFG in because John Williams, but I am nervous about this because there is a limit to name-checking. Meryl Streep does not literally get nominated every year that she is eligible, nor does Roger Deakins or John Williams.
Someone who we might be way underestimating is James Newton Howard for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. Howard has a habit of getting nominated out of nowhere. In fact, only one of his six previous Oscar nominations in this category were not foreshadowed by any of the four precursors that I highlighted above. I have not seen the film yet (maybe tomorrow), so how is the score? I also have no reason for not having Michael Giacchino for Rogue One. Is it good? Should I bump The BFG and Moonlight for these two? Hacksaw Ridge?
Desplat didn’t get in because last year was stacked: Morricone for a Tarantino, Williams for Star Wars, Newman for Spielberg, etc. Even Giacchino got snubbed for his first Pixar film since Up. Considering Desplat had won the year before, there was no need to include him. I’ll watch Florence Foster this week. From the snippets I’ve heard, the score is different from his other work and the branch likes that. They’ve also nominated him multiple times for unmemorable work – King’s Speech and Argo. And before you bring up that those were Best Picture winners, that was correlation, not causation (no Zimmer for 12 Years or Shore for Spotlight). I wouldn’t count Desplat out, but I should also probably see the movie 🙂
Regarding John Williams – you’re not quite right there. Williams went into semi-retirement in ’05, returned briefly in ’08 for Indiana Jones (not nominated), and more fully in ’11. Since his return, he has been nominated for everything he has been eligible for.
I wouldn’t count on Newton Howard or Giacchino. They don’t typically nominate action scores unless they really go beyond convention – Inception, Skyfall – and these do not. The composers of Hacksaw Ridge and Hidden Figures came out of Hans Zimmer’s studio-machine, which I think this branch hates. Even talented composers like John Powell have only been nominated once – the rest of them (both the Gregson-Williams, Djawadi, Badelt) never do.January 16, 2017 at 10:16 am #1201988945
I did not realize that Hans Zimmer had been ruled ineligible for Hidden Figures. Pharrell does not have the same cachet.
The Hacksaw Ridge score was not even nominated by AACTA, then it went on to win in nine other categories. If even they did not nominate it (and it is not from a composer with name recognition or who has had much traction this season), that seems an easy one to dismiss.
I listened to some of the Rogue One score. It is bombastic and Michael Giacchino seems to have put his heart into it, as he usually does, but I wonder if they will want to nominate Star Wars without John Williams. They did not keep nominating Harry Potter when he left (and not even when Alexandre Desplat took over). How does this branch feel about spin-offs anyway? They did not nominate Howard Shore for The Hobbit after awarding him twice here for The Lord of the Rings. They also snubbed Giacchino when he should have been nominated last year for Inside Out.
Listening to the Nocturnal Animals soundtrack and I forgot how sweeping and interesting it was. I have just swapped it in for Moonlight.January 16, 2017 at 10:26 am #1201988953
I listened to some of the Rogue One score. It is bombastic and Michael Giacchino seems to have put his heart into it, as he usually does, but I wonder if they will want to nominate Star Wars without John Williams.
Hmm, yes – and they didn’t nominate plenty of the Star Wars films when Williams was involved in it. It’s also worth mentioning that Giacchino has only been nominated for his work in animation. This branch has had plenty of opportunities to recognize his action scores, and they have not.January 16, 2017 at 7:45 pm #1201989344
Just saw Florence Foster and could definitely see Desplat picking up a nomination, especially given how few past-nominees are in the mix. The score dips out for large periods of time, but what’s there is very well written and stylistically new for Desplat.
Saw Moonlight the night before and feel pretty sure it won’t make the cut. I’d love to be proven wrong, but history shows that if your score is just for electronics and a solo instrument, you need to be in a popular band to get nominated.
Also, I’m much more appreciative of this branch’s rules after seeing Florence Foster. That Hugh Grant is being touted as supporting is ridiculous; the acting branch should follow-suit and have a list of eligible nominees for each category.January 17, 2017 at 5:12 pm #1201989892
If Nocturnal Animals can only get one nomination, this is where I want it to get in the most. Just an incredible piece of music that opening score is!
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