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Best Original Screenplay Winners Stats(2000-2018)/How They Affect The Oscars

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  • Joe Burns
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    #1202821276

    This year saw a big upset and even a new record in the Best Original Screenplay category with The Favourite losing to Green Book despite all the controversy surrounding Green Book’s depiction of its characters and the assumed significance of it’s loss at WGA to an un-nominated script. The debate over how important the precursors were in regards to who the winner would be made me think about the precursor stats for this category in general in the years since BAFTA became a precursor to the Oscar and how we can compare Green Book’s win to them in order to determine what patterns are the most significant for the path to victory in this category:

    1. Almost Famous: Lost the WGA/Globe, but won the BAFTA/Critics Choice and then went on to win the Oscar over frontrunner You Can Count On Me.
    2. Gosford Park: Won WGA but lost the Globe, the BAFTA, and was snubbed at Critics Choice, beat Memento at the Oscars.
    3. Talk To Her: Won BAFTA but was snubbed/ineligible(?) everywhere else. Triumphed at the Oscars despite competition from Far From Heaven.
    4. Lost In Translation: Won WGA/Globe, lost Critics Choice/BAFTA, won the Oscar fairly easily due to wealth spreading.
    5. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: Won at WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe/Critics Choice, deservingly won the Oscar with weak competition.
    6. Crash: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, but won at the Oscars with no real competition.
    7. Little Miss Sunshine: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, was snubbed at the Globes, but won at the Oscars despite strong competition from The Queen and Babel.
    8. Juno: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost the Globe, prevailed at the Oscars due to popularity/wealth spreading.
    9. Milk: Won WGA but lost everywhere else, won Oscar anyway due to no clear alternative and strong support from the Academy for the film.
    10. The Hurt Locker: Won WGA/BAFTA, lost Critics Choice/Globe, beat out Inglorious Bastards due to it being the Best Picture frontrunner and it’s precursor strength.
    11. The King’s Speech: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost the Globe and was ineligible at WGA, won the Oscar over Inception due to weak support for the latter and it’s strong status as a Best Picture frontrunner.
    12. Midnight In Paris: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, lost BAFTA to The Artist, but was too popular in the US to lose at the Oscars.
    13. Django Unchained: Won Critics Choice/Globe/BAFTA, ineligible at WGA, won due to Tarantino being overdue for another Oscar win/industry recognition and weak support for Zero Dark Thirty due to controversy/Boal’s previous victory only three years earlier.
    14. Her: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, not eligible at BAFTA due to 2014 release, won Oscar due to passion/achievement in addition to American Hustle’s screenplay being the most criticized aspect of the film.
    15. Birdman: Won Globe/Critics Choice, ineligible at WGA and lost at BAFTA, won Oscar anyway due to it being a Best Picture frontrunner and on merit.
    16. Spotlight: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, won at the Oscars as it was the de facto frontrunner all season long.
    17. Manchester By The Sea: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost Globe/WGA, won at the Oscars as Lonergan was overdue and La La Land’s script was not one of its strengths.
    18. Get Out: Won Critics Choice/WGA, lost Globe/BAFTA, won Oscar on merit and wealth spreading not to mention the Three Billboards backlash and the script being problematic.
    19. Green Book: Won Globe, lost WGA/BAFTA/Critics Choice, won at the Oscars due to strong support for the film but The Favourite was undoubtedly extremely close to winning. I’d love to see how the voting went down in this category.

    As you can see Green Book’s win is record making as it is the only film this century to win at the Globes, lose everything else, and then win at the Oscars against all odds. Out of all the precursors the Globe has been the worst in predicting this category in the past eighteen years(although I wonder how they would fair with split categories in the Screenplay races). That and the historical controversies make Green Book’s win odd especially with its WGA loss- maybe the controversies were enough to sway the writers into voting for someone else at WGA but the Academy’s love for Green Book was just too big? Were some voters too unsatisfied with The Favourite’s ending to vote for it here? What are your overall thoughts on the precursor statistics in this category? Which do you think are more important/less important in regards to predicting the eventual Oscar winner?

    • This topic was modified 6 months, 2 weeks ago by  Joe Burns.
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    FairWeatherAffair
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    I do not follow stats and all that for the most part, but Green Book‘s win here is perhaps indicative of a divergence among the various voting bodies. We have been suspecting for a few seasons now that the Oscars may become harder to predict as the voting body is in flux and other groups remain more static. It could just be the case that this manifested in an unexpected fashion this year: instead of the new membership being strong enough to rally around The Favourite, the old guard picked structure over politics with Green Book. Either way, First Reformed lost, which is the real travesty.

    Someone tell me if I am on to something, simply stating the obvious, or am totally off-base with all that.

    If nothing else, this has taught me that in the last 19 years I have agreed with the Original Screenplay winner 4 times! A better record than Picture and Director I would think… Thank you, Writer’s branch!

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    Joe Burns
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    I agree with you- older voters must have rebelled in droves and voted for Green Book in BP and in this category.

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    Joe Burns
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    I do not follow stats and all that for the most part, but Green Book‘s win here is perhaps indicative of a divergence among the various voting bodies. We have been suspecting for a few seasons now that the Oscars may become harder to predict as the voting body is in flux and other groups remain more static. It could just be the case that this manifested in an unexpected fashion this year: instead of the new membership being strong enough to rally around The Favourite, the old guard picked structure over politics with Green Book. Either way, First Reformed lost, which is the real travesty.

    Someone tell me if I am on to something, simply stating the obvious, or am totally off-base with all that.

    If nothing else, this has taught me that in the last 19 years I have agreed with the Original Screenplay winner 4 times! A better record than Picture and Director I would think… Thank you, Writer’s branch!

    One thing that this year taught me was that it’s hard to win Best Picture without also winning an Oscar for it’s script: Only thirty films have prevailed in the Best Picture race without winning(or in some cases not being nominated) for their scripts.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    #1202830373

    I do not follow stats and all that for the most part, but Green Book‘s win here is perhaps indicative of a divergence among the various voting bodies. We have been suspecting for a few seasons now that the Oscars may become harder to predict as the voting body is in flux and other groups remain more static. It could just be the case that this manifested in an unexpected fashion this year: instead of the new membership being strong enough to rally around The Favourite, the old guard picked structure over politics with Green Book. Either way, First Reformed lost, which is the real travesty.

    Someone tell me if I am on to something, simply stating the obvious, or am totally off-base with all that.

    If nothing else, this has taught me that in the last 19 years I have agreed with the Original Screenplay winner 4 times! A better record than Picture and Director I would think… Thank you, Writer’s branch!

    Well, this has nothing to do with the writers’ branch. If the writers’ branch was responsible for voting for the winner, I’d suspect you would agree with the winner more often than just 4 times in 19 years.

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    Zooey the Dreamer
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    This year saw a big upset and even a new record in the Best Original Screenplay category with The Favourite losing to Green Book despite all the controversy surrounding Green Book’s depiction of its characters and the assumed significance of it’s loss at WGA to an un-nominated script. The debate over how important the precursors were in regards to who the winner would be made me think about the precursor stats for this category in general in the years since BAFTA became a precursor to the Oscar and how we can compare Green Book’s win to them in order to determine what patterns are the most significant for the path to victory in this category:

    1. Almost Famous: Lost the WGA/Globe, but won the BAFTA/Critics Choice and then went on to win the Oscar over frontrunner You Can Count On Me.
    2. Gosford Park: Won WGA/BAFTA but lost the Globe and was snubbed at Critics Choice, beat Memento at the Oscars.
    3. Talk To Her: Won BAFTA but was snubbed/ineligible(?) everywhere else. Triumphed at the Oscars despite competition from Far From Heaven.
    4. Lost In Translation: Won WGA/Globe, lost Critics Choice/BAFTA, won the Oscar fairly easily due to wealth spreading.
    5. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: Won at WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe/Critics Choice, deservingly won the Oscar with weak competition.
    6. Crash: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, but won at the Oscars with no real competition.
    7. Little Miss Sunshine: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, was snubbed at the Globes, but won at the Oscars despite strong competition from The Queen and Babel.
    8. Juno: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost the Globe, prevailed at the Oscars due to popularity/wealth spreading.
    9. Milk: Won WGA but lost everywhere else, won Oscar anyway due to no clear alternative and strong support from the Academy for the film.
    10. The Hurt Locker: Won WGA/BAFTA, lost Critics Choice/Globe, beat out Inglorious Bastards due to it being the Best Picture frontrunner and it’s precursor strength.
    11. The King’s Speech: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost the Globe and was ineligible at WGA, won the Oscar over Inception due to weak support for the latter and it’s strong status as a Best Picture frontrunner.
    12. Midnight In Paris: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, lost BAFTA to The Artist, but was too popular in the US to lose at the Oscars.
    13. Django Unchained: Won Critics Choice/Globe/BAFTA, ineligible at WGA, won due to Tarantino being overdue for another Oscar win/industry recognition and weak support for Zero Dark Thirty due to controversy/Boal’s previous victory only three years earlier.
    14. Her: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, not eligible at BAFTA due to 2014 release, won Oscar due to passion/achievement in addition to American Hustle’s screenplay being the most criticized aspect of the film.
    15. Birdman: Won Globe/Critics Choice, ineligible at WGA and lost at BAFTA, won Oscar anyway due to it being a Best Picture frontrunner and on merit.
    16. Spotlight: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, won at the Oscars as it was the de facto frontrunner all season long.
    17. Manchester By The Sea: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost Globe/WGA, won at the Oscars as Lonergan was overdue and La La Land’s script was not one of its strengths.
    18. Get Out: Won Critics Choice/WGA, lost Globe/BAFTA, won Oscar on merit and wealth spreading not to mention the Three Billboards backlash and the script being problematic.
    19. Green Book: Won Globe, lost WGA/BAFTA/Critics Choice, won at the Oscars due to strong support for the film but The Favourite was undoubtedly extremely close to winning. I’d love to see how the voting went down in this category.

    As you can see Green Book’s win is record making as it is the only film this century to win at the Globes, lose everything else, and then win at the Oscars against all odds. Out of all the precursors the Globe has been the worst in predicting this category in the past eighteen years(although I wonder how they would fair with split categories in the Screenplay races). That and the historical controversies make Green Book’s win odd especially with its WGA loss- maybe the controversies were enough to sway the writers into voting for someone else at WGA but the Academy’s love for Green Book was just too big? Were some voters too unsatisfied with The Favourite’s ending to vote for it here? What are your overall thoughts on the precursor statistics in this category? Which do you think are more important/less important in regards to predicting the eventual Oscar winner?

    This year saw a big upset and even a new record in the Best Original Screenplay category with The Favourite losing to Green Book despite all the controversy surrounding Green Book’s depiction of its characters and the assumed significance of it’s loss at WGA to an un-nominated script. The debate over how important the precursors were in regards to who the winner would be made me think about the precursor stats for this category in general in the years since BAFTA became a precursor to the Oscar and how we can compare Green Book’s win to them in order to determine what patterns are the most significant for the path to victory in this category:

    1. Almost Famous: Lost the WGA/Globe, but won the BAFTA/Critics Choice and then went on to win the Oscar over frontrunner You Can Count On Me.
    2. Gosford Park: Won WGA/BAFTA but lost the Globe and was snubbed at Critics Choice, beat Memento at the Oscars.
    3. Talk To Her: Won BAFTA but was snubbed/ineligible(?) everywhere else. Triumphed at the Oscars despite competition from Far From Heaven.
    4. Lost In Translation: Won WGA/Globe, lost Critics Choice/BAFTA, won the Oscar fairly easily due to wealth spreading.
    5. Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind: Won at WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe/Critics Choice, deservingly won the Oscar with weak competition.
    6. Crash: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, but won at the Oscars with no real competition.
    7. Little Miss Sunshine: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, was snubbed at the Globes, but won at the Oscars despite strong competition from The Queen and Babel.
    8. Juno: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost the Globe, prevailed at the Oscars due to popularity/wealth spreading.
    9. Milk: Won WGA but lost everywhere else, won Oscar anyway due to no clear alternative and strong support from the Academy for the film.
    10. The Hurt Locker: Won WGA/BAFTA, lost Critics Choice/Globe, beat out Inglorious Bastards due to it being the Best Picture frontrunner and it’s precursor strength.
    11. The King’s Speech: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost the Globe and was ineligible at WGA, won the Oscar over Inception due to weak support for the latter and it’s strong status as a Best Picture frontrunner.
    12. Midnight In Paris: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, lost BAFTA to The Artist, but was too popular in the US to lose at the Oscars.
    13. Django Unchained: Won Critics Choice/Globe/BAFTA, ineligible at WGA, won due to Tarantino being overdue for another Oscar win/industry recognition and weak support for Zero Dark Thirty due to controversy/Boal’s previous victory only three years earlier.
    14. Her: Won Critics Choice/Globe/WGA, not eligible at BAFTA due to 2014 release, won Oscar due to passion/achievement in addition to American Hustle’s screenplay being the most criticized aspect of the film.
    15. Birdman: Won Globe/Critics Choice, ineligible at WGA and lost at BAFTA, won Oscar anyway due to it being a Best Picture frontrunner and on merit.
    16. Spotlight: Won Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA, lost Globe, won at the Oscars as it was the de facto frontrunner all season long.
    17. Manchester By The Sea: Won Critics Choice/BAFTA, lost Globe/WGA, won at the Oscars as Lonergan was overdue and La La Land’s script was not one of its strengths.
    18. Get Out: Won Critics Choice/WGA, lost Globe/BAFTA, won Oscar on merit and wealth spreading not to mention the Three Billboards backlash and the script being problematic.
    19. Green Book: Won Globe, lost WGA/BAFTA/Critics Choice, won at the Oscars due to strong support for the film but The Favourite was undoubtedly extremely close to winning. I’d love to see how the voting went down in this category.

    As you can see Green Book’s win is record making as it is the only film this century to win at the Globes, lose everything else, and then win at the Oscars against all odds. Out of all the precursors the Globe has been the worst in predicting this category in the past eighteen years(although I wonder how they would fair with split categories in the Screenplay races). That and the historical controversies make Green Book’s win odd especially with its WGA loss- maybe the controversies were enough to sway the writers into voting for someone else at WGA but the Academy’s love for Green Book was just too big? Were some voters too unsatisfied with The Favourite’s ending to vote for it here? What are your overall thoughts on the precursor statistics in this category? Which do you think are more important/less important in regards to predicting the eventual Oscar winner?

    Two corrections.

    1. Gosford Park lost BAFTA to Amelie.
    2. Talk to Her was ineligible for WGA but was eligible for Globe and Critics’ Choice consideration.

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    Joe Burns
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    Oh thanks! I can’t believe I missed Amelie winning BAFTA but I wasn’t sure if Talk To Her was eligible for the other awards. Thank you for clarifying!

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    Nikhil
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    #1202830988

    I think it’s important to note that in your examples above there was generally a clear number two or runner up. The reality for this year was that there were likely 3 in contention at least according to the guilds: GB (Globes), The Favourite (BAFTA), and First Reformed (CC, WGA).

    The Favourite was overestimated to win in this category despite being in contention and losing most of the time it went up against its competition. The same is true for Green Book, but I think that the same people who voted for art house fare like First Reformed would have likely voted for the Favourite over Green Book. Whereas traditional movie goers or people who just liked Green Book had a clear choice to vote for.

    I’m sure the votes were very close but when there is a lack of industry consensus, I think it makes sense that GB can pull out ahead of the two “artsier” alternatives.

    My personal Top 10 of 2019 so far:
    1) Parasite 2) The Farewell 3) Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 4) Joker 5) Jojo Rabbit 6) The Peanut Butter Falcon 7) Marriage Story 8) Luce 9) Yesterday 10) Hotel Mumbai

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    Joe Burns
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    I think it’s important to note that in your examples above there was generally a clear number two or runner up. The reality for this year was that there were likely 3 in contention at least according to the guilds: GB (Globes), The Favourite (BAFTA), and First Reformed (CC, WGA).

    The Favourite was overestimated to win in this category despite being in contention and losing most of the time it went up against its competition. The same is true for Green Book, but I think that the same people who voted for art house fare like First Reformed would have likely voted for the Favourite over Green Book. Whereas traditional movie goers or people who just liked Green Book had a clear choice to vote for.

    I’m sure the votes were very close but when there is a lack of industry consensus, I think it makes sense that GB can pull out ahead of the two “artsier” alternatives.

    First Reformed didn’t win at WGA though(it wasn’t even nominated there)- it just won the Critics Choice award. But yes The Favourite seems to have been overestimated and I’m sure First Reformed took some votes from it but I bet it was really really close between The Favourite and Green Book.

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    Anthony 🐜
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    I doubt it was as close as what some people want it to be.

    Either fans of the film pretend to have selective memory loss, or they are purposely ignoring the fact that The Favourite was a divisive film out of Venice. The divisive ending and the script was continually highlighted as being divisive. And the line “you smell like a 96 year old french whore’s vajuju” definitely didn’t make many people “cunt-struck”.

    Just saying…

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    Joe Burns
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    I think it’s important to note that in your examples above there was generally a clear number two or runner up. The reality for this year was that there were likely 3 in contention at least according to the guilds: GB (Globes), The Favourite (BAFTA), and First Reformed (CC, WGA).

    The Favourite was overestimated to win in this category despite being in contention and losing most of the time it went up against its competition. The same is true for Green Book, but I think that the same people who voted for art house fare like First Reformed would have likely voted for the Favourite over Green Book. Whereas traditional movie goers or people who just liked Green Book had a clear choice to vote for.

    I’m sure the votes were very close but when there is a lack of industry consensus, I think it makes sense that GB can pull out ahead of the two “artsier” alternatives.

    I also think it’s possible that Roma took some of the arthouse votes too- and you’re absolutely right about the openness of the race. If The Favourite had been eligible at WGA and nominated/won there it would have been able to hold a tighter grip on this category as the sheep mentality could have carried it to a win. I personally felt that it would win due to it being the most creative and original contender in the race and was skeptical that Green Book could win due to the controversy. It was clear that Bohemian Rhapsody was surviving the backlash but Green Book’s continuing controversy and it’s Best Director snub made me feel that the film had lost too much momentum and had become the Big Short of the year with winning at PGA and then failing to gain any substantial momentum after that. A lot of talk about the sentiments of the film didn’t impress me either as Oscar voters aren’t that sentimental in a lot of ways. And I didn’t feel that First Reformed was widely seen enough to actually be a factor in the race.

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