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Best Picture and Best Actress

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  • Miles
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    #1202458113

    It is a known statistic around here that a Best Picture winner hasn’t contained a Best Actress nominated OR winning performance since Million Dollar Baby in 2004, with Hilary Swank claiming her second Best Actress Oscar.

    I think this is the year where that statistic will be broken.

    Best Actress Contenders-

    Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
    Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
    Meryl Streep – The Post
    Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

    With the exception of I, Tonya, these films have realistic chances of winning Best Picture.

    Question: Will these stats be broken this year? If so, which one:
    1) Best Picture win/ Best Actress win
    2) Best Picture win/ Best Actress nomination

    • This topic was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  Miles.
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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202458114

    Right now I think the most likely scenario is Get Out / McDormand, in which case neither stat will be broken.

    However, it’s also possible that we get:
    Three Billboards / McDormand
    The Shape of Water / Hawkins
    Lady Bird / Ronan
    Lady Bird / McDormand

    which would each break one stat or the other.

    Perhaps more excitingly, this could be the first time in 40 years when all 5 Lead Actress nominees are up for Best Picture! It last happened at the 50th ceremony, where Keaton won for Annie Hall.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  TheRedBoy.
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    LangeWeaver2
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    #1202458117

    I’m really starting to get the feeling that Lady Bird is going to win as a mainstream consensus candidate that benefits from preferential balloting.  I don’t think Ronan will win this time, so I don’t think there will be a match.  But she’s surely on track for a nomination.

    So I predict Best Picture Lady Bird, with McDormand or Hawkins taking Actress.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  LangeWeaver2.
    • This reply was modified 8 months, 2 weeks ago by  LangeWeaver2.
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    M: The Original
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    #1202458126

    Picture and Actress won’t match unless Lady Bird is the winner. And I suspect Get Out is our winner. Now if Ronan and Metcalf match we’ll have our first pair since Shakespeare in Love (1998).

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    Foolio
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    #1202458128

    Three Billboards / McDormand is the likeliest scenario for a Picture-Actress match (much more likely to happen than Lady Bird / Ronan), but I think this is shaping up to be S-Hawk’s year and I frankly don’t see TWSOP taking Picture.

    So no, I don’t think they’re going to match. It’s entirely possible that the majority of Best Picture nominees are female-lead this year though.

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    Miles
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    #1202458131

    I also looked back farther into Oscar history to see the correlation between Best Picture and Best Actress (up until 1967)

    (bold indicates a Best Actress winner)
    (* indicates a Best Picture winner which also had a Best Actor nomination)
    (** indicates a Best Picture winner which also had a Best Actor win)

    2004: *Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
    2002: Renee Zellweger, Chicago
    1998: Gwyneth Paltrow, Shakespeare in Love
    1997: Kate Winslet, Titanic
    1996: *Kristin Scott Thomas, The English Patient
    1991: **Jodie Foster, The Silence of the Lambs
    1989: *Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy

    1985: Meryl Streep, Out of Africa
    1983: Shirley MacLaine, Terms of Endearment
    1983: Debra Winger, Terms of Endearment
    1980: Mary Tyler Moore, Ordinary People
    1977: *Diane Keaton, Annie Hall
    1976: *Talia Shire, Rocky
    1975: **Louise Fletcher, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest

    In the past 50 years,

    14/50 (28%) of Best Picture winners had a Best Actress nomination
    7/50 (14%) of Best Picture winners had a Best Actress win
    7/14 (50%) of Best Picture winners with a Best Actress nomination ALSO had a Best Actor nomination
    2/14 (14%) of Best Picture winners with a Best Actress nomination ALSO had a Best Actor win

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    Milk Money
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    #1202458134

    Didn’t The Turning point have two Best Actress nominees in 1977?

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    TheRedBoy
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    #1202458136

    Didn’t The Turning point have two Best Actress nominees in 1977?

    Yes. Annie Hall, Julia, The Goodbye Girl, and two for The Turning Point. All 4 films were up for Best Picture, along with Star wars.

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    Marcus Snowden (The Artist Formerly Known as msnowden1)
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    #1202458139

    My predictions have the combination of The Shape of Water/McDormand pulling through. I can definitely see Three Billboards winning Best Picture, though. Out of all the five predicted nominees in Best Actress, only Robbie’s film doesn’t have a chance of winning Best Picture.

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    Riley
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    #1202458152

    La La Land won both categories.

    That was my instinctive response to this thread anyway.

    "I don't even believe in god, but I'm going to thank her tonight."

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    George Papakostas
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    #1202458156

    Margot Robbie will win best actress ( hot and -relatively- new actress tha prevails at the Oscars)
    Best picture I think The Shape of Water ( I think it is the ONE movie which almost everybody likes )

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    Honey
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    #1202458158

    I feel like Shape of Water/Sally Hawkins can do that, but mostly cuz I can’t expect the Oscar voting branch which is 80%+ male to all go in with Lady Bird/Saoirse or go in with 3b/McDormand (since there’s been multiple people offended by that movie for whatever reason). This is assuming Get Out doesn’t win.

    shape of water seems less divisive overall than 3b, while still being a “cool”/genre-ish movie that the male members can go toward to pick over Lady Bird and female voting members just wanting a female lead movie to win BP.

    also Hawkins is performing the best with the critics groups

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    Philip
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    #1202458163

    I assume you mean best picture winner and best actress winner. Cause there are many best actress winners/best picture nominees since Million Dollar Baby.

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    Miles
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    #1202458173

    I assume you mean best picture winner and best actress winner. Cause there are many best actress winners/best picture nominees since Million Dollar Baby.

    Yes, I mean Best Picture winner/Best Actress winner but I also mean Best Picture winner/Best Actress nominee, to which there have been none since Million Dollar Baby.

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    Philip
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    #1202458411

    I assume you mean best picture winner and best actress winner. Cause there are many best actress winners/best picture nominees since Million Dollar Baby.

    Yes, I mean Best Picture winner/Best Actress winner but I also mean Best Picture winner/Best Actress nominee, to which there have been none since Million Dollar Baby.

    I got confused by the wording.

    “It is a known statistic around here that a Best Picture nominee hasn’t contained a Best Actress nominated OR winning performance since Million Dollar Baby in 2004, with Hilary Swank claiming her second Best Actress Oscar.”

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