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Best Picture Oscar Discussion (Part 3)

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  • FreemanGriffin
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    #1202752286

    ^who is this “we” who need to get a “backlash” campaign to harm Roma’s chances? If it doesn’t win it will be because of foreign language bias. Roma is very likely going to win Best Picture and some of us want it to win. It was my #1 movie of 2018. It is extremely rare for my #1 movie to be in contention/front-runner for the Oscar so I am incredibly pleased.

    I know you don’t like the movie. What movie out of the 8 are you rooting for?

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    Anonymous
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    #1202752288

    ^who is this “we” who need to get a “backlash” campaign to harm Roma’s chances? If it doesn’t win it will be because of foreign language bias. Roma is very likely going to win Best Picture and some of us want it to win. It was my #1 movie of 2018. It is extremely rare for my #1 movie to be in contention/front-runner for the Oscar so I am incredibly pleased.

    I know you don’t like the movie. What movie out of the 8 are you rooting for?

    I have said it multiple times but to reiterate my favorite of the Best Picture nominees is by far The Favourite. Great nuanced acting, amazingly gorgeous production values, with witty and engaging dialogue and believable character development. A period lesbian love triangle inspired by real events involving royalty no less! What more could one want from a Best Picture winner in the modern era?

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    Dennis El Mar
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    #1202752307

    If The Favourite won, it would almost make up for all of the boring and terrible choices made this awards season.

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    TVFan365
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    #1202752310

    Plus, it is clearly losing DGA to Cuarón and WGA to Beale Street, only Spike Lee stans in denial think otherwise.

    How is it “clearly losing” WGA?

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  TVFan365.
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    TVFan365
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    #1202752314

    Black Panther doesn’t have a strong chance of winning Best Picture but a better speech after their SAG win would have helped their chances a little. Chadwick Boseman should’ve asked Sterling K. Brown for advice on what to say because that man is a master of great speeches.

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    JustGuy89
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    #1202752315

    Ala Moonlight. Mahershala Ali winning an Oscar for his less-than-stellar performance while Trevante Rhodes and Ashton Sanders’ superior work from that same movie were not even nominated is proof for me that voters just checked off the boxes they were told to check off by Woke Twitter and Film Critics Awards like sheep. Also, please don’t give me that “but Mahershala was supporting” excuse, because you can still make a great and memorable impact with little screen time. Mahershala did nothing remarkable, there was nothing he did that could not have been done by any other actor, period. At least those other 2 Moonlight performers got deeper emotional material to work with.

    preach!!! And now he’ll win another Oscar for another mediocre performance.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202752316

    How is it “clearly losing” WGA?

    It got snubbed by USC Scripter (look up their track record of predicting Oscar Adapted Screenplay winners over the past decade) and lost Critics’ Choice which is usually a reliable indicator for these major Oscar categories. Just look at USC Scripter, I’m tired of repeating the stat on that one over and over again. Plus, it is hurt by having 4 writers while Beale Street will likely win for Barry Jenkins in spite of the films Best Picture snub.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202752503

    If Roma can’t overcome the foreign language bias I would want The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman or Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody to win instead. I think Roma is in a great position to win though.

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    Djoko
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    #1202752625

    SAG showed the race is Roma vs Green Book. They went with Black Panther because neither was nominated. Same with Supporting where they went with Blunt since King wasn’t nominated. I’m not sure BAFTA will tell us anything because Green Book is a very American film. I guess you could say Three Billboards was too. If Green Book wins WGA it’s still very much in the race.

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    Anonymous
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    #1202752628

    SAG showed the race is Roma vs Green Book. They went with Black Panther because neither was nominated. Same with Supporting where they went with Blunt since King wasn’t nominated. I’m not sure BAFTA will tell us anything because Green Book is a very American film. I guess you could say Three Billboards was too. If Green Book wins WGA it’s still very much in the race.

    Even with that WGA win that will come with a major asterisk since The Favourite is ineligible and that film performed wwwaaaaayyyy better with both Bafta and the Oscars and looks to win Original Screenplay with both of them. More snob appeal and in my opinion simply better dialogue.

    Roma vs. Roma vs. clearly only Roma by this point. Green Book’s snubs in missing both Bafta Director and an Oscar Director nod were both the final nails in the coffin. Like The Shape of Water, it could have survived just missing SAG Cast nomination, but those other 2 snubs undeniably killed its chances as far as being seriously in the awards conversation to win Best Picture. SAG showed us nothing since Roma was shut out and that film objectively has no major competition due to all the other movies having shown too many signs of weakness to be taken as serious threats anymore. This is the most boring Oscar category for me, even with Lead Actress I can still at least fantasize about a Bafta upset leading to Colman triumphing over Close. Picture? Roma, it truly is the definition of a done deal, as much as I hate to think about it.

    I already have twice as many posts on this thread as the person with the 2nd most. I have gotta quit posting on this particular thread for a while, even I will admit I’m starting to sound like a broken record with my points. People will ignore those points at their own predictions peril, so be it.

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    Kevin Schwaller
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    #1202752793

    I *hope* Roma gets passed the Foreign Language barrier, but if it doesn’t, I’m rooting for The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman.

    The Favourite’s 10 noms means The Academy loves the film, so I could see it happening quite easily.

    I don’t think Green Book’s growing criticisms on social media will necessarily wreck its chances and it’ll remain a front runner.  ASIB’s continuous snubs (mainly the lack of a Best Director nom and now the SAG results) has taken it out of the race, IMO. BlacKkKlansman seems to have picked up a steam I wasn’t anticipating also, and I’m all for it.

    I’m expecting it’ll be Roma or Green Book, but if The Favourite’s team continues to play its cards right and it wins big at the BAFTAs (which it probably will) which is the weekend before Oscar voting begins, I think the race is pretty tight.

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    Maria
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    #1202752831

    ^ i’m hoping that if Roma somehow doesn’t win that The Favourite would be high enough on ballots to win being the most popular movie among The Academy. those 10 nominations definitely helps, I can see Vice having a few votes that are pretty low. The Favourite reallyy needs to be front and center BAFTA night (which I think it will) to give it the last momentum and push to the Oscars.

    Really hoping Roma wins this though, it would make history, and it’s the perfect foreign film to do just that. If it does win Best Picture I reallyy want Cold War to win Foreign Language, The Academy does like to spread the wealth so i’m hoping that happens.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1202752943

    ^I just saw Capernaum and found it to be even better than Cold War, but Roma is not losing BFLF. (Still haven’t seen Shoplifters and still waiting for Never Look Away to open here).

    The Favourite is my #2, so if Roma were to lose I would want it to be to The Favourite (even though they both have 10 nominations, Roma is actually nominated in one more category due to the two nods in Supporting Actress).

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    Eddy Q
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    #1202753001

    I’m not sure BAFTA will tell us anything because Green Book is a very American film. I guess you could say Three Billboards was too.

    Three Billboards was co-produced by the British Film4 Productions, had a British writer-director and won the BAFTA for Best British Film. Its outsider’s perspective of the American Midwest was quite evident just from watching it, in my opinion. Green Book, however, feels more all-American. I only see it winning Supporting Actor at BAFTA, and even that might not be as easy as at the Globes and SAG.

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    Maria
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    #1202753016

    The Favourite does have a film editing nod over Roma, which I was surprised to see on nomination day. I don’t think missing Film Editing will hurt Roma’s chances though. I definitely agree that the two acting nods will make up for that missing. Roma doesn’t have that much editing anyway, mostly long shots and I think it will go just like how Birdman did. Birdman was made to look like one long take and it missed an editing nomination too, and it still won Best Picture.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  Maria.
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