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January 1, 2016 at 6:32 pm #200992
Just saw Joy and yeah I understand why De Niro isn’t getting any nominations. He’s fine in the movie but nothing special.
I think Rylance will take SAG, Critics Choice, and possibly BAFTA while Stallone takes the Globe. I think Dano still has a good shot to get in and hearing alot of the reactions to Love and Mercy, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came in and stole the whole thing. He is ridiculously overdue for now a decades worth of worthy roles starting with Little Miss Sunshine (maybe something before that) plus he is the one that people love the most about the movie. The only downfall he might have is the ridiculous category fraudJanuary 2, 2016 at 4:07 am #200993
I think Dano gets in at BAFTA at least. To rule him out of this insane race would be absurd, because its the sort of performance that will get passion votes. And it isn’t like he hasn’t done well at the precursors, with a Globe nom and a few Best Actor wins with critic groups.January 2, 2016 at 8:07 am #200994
I hope Benito Del Toro makes it into this tough category. He was outstanding.January 3, 2016 at 7:31 pm #200995
I love how much of a mess this category is! My three favorite performances of the YEAR were from supporting actors (Paul Dano, Emory Cohen, and Sly Stallone — I can’t stop thinking about any of those performances).
Right now I would predict
1. Sylvester Stallone
I think if he’s in, he’s winning. He has a great narrtive behind him. He just has to get in!
2. Mark Rylance
The only lock.
3. Christian Bale
Considering how people are now saying The Big Short is gonna overtake Spotlight and considering how much the Academy LOVES Bale (they nominated him for American Hustle!) I think he’s a safe bet.
4. Jacob Tremblay
The SAG nom really helped him and Room has a lot of love for it.
5. Paul Dano
His performance is way too incredible to let me beleive they’ll leave him out! Plus, he has done sooo much incredible work in his young life.
I can’t believe that there are people still predicting the Spotlight boys. They’ve barely gotten any precursor awards/noms and will split their votes. There’s just no evidence that they will get in. Maybe if it was a less competitive year.
And finally, I was reiterate that it’s a damn shame that Emory Cohen is not being campaiged and has never been seriously in contention!!!January 3, 2016 at 7:40 pm #200996
Sylvester Stallone should win this, he was outstanding in Creed.January 3, 2016 at 8:33 pm #200997
I saw Beasts of No Nation and was not really impressed with Idris Elba. Was the accent supposed to be his winning moment here? He was convincing for the first 10 minutes, but then every scene where he appears just becomes tiresome.
Mark Rylance was great in Bridge of Spies.
I have The Big Short, The Revenant, and Creed on my queue for next week.January 4, 2016 at 6:51 am #200998This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.January 4, 2016 at 8:42 am #200999
For now :
Del ToroJanuary 5, 2016 at 12:54 am #201000
I have a feeling Tom Hardy will make it in for The Revenant as a way to further Leonardo DiCaprio’s chances to win Lead, ala Gyllenhaal 2009 when Bridges was out in front. Not to mention it’s a dark, stirring performance.
I think Ruffalo is close, but he might cancel himself out with Keaton like everywhere else. And Tremblay is also a possibility – but I see him spoiling in the leading race, not here. Dano and Shannon are close but will they have support for their films? And does anyone else feel Idris might be the one who gets snubbed despite precursor attention? Could the Netflix issue cause more conservative voters to sway away?
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FYC: Derbyite of the Year, 2017January 5, 2016 at 2:45 am #201002
I’m not sure if other people have said it or not and I understand its a different catagory (supporting not lead) but I see quite big parallels between Michael Shannon in 99 Homes (whose performance I loved and would really like to see get nominated) and Jake Gyllenhaal last year for Nightcrawler (a performance I also loved). Before it started getting nominations no one took it seriously because it is a tiny little movie without high probability for many nominations (if any) and isn’t the sort of movie or role that tends to do well at the oscars. Just like Jake Gyllenhaal’s performance.
Like Jake’s perormance in Nightcrawler, I wonder whether it is going to be too small and the wrong sort of film to fit with the academy’s usual tastes even with the amount of nominations he’s getting at the precursors . I really do hope I’m wrong.
I also loved Paul Dano in Love and Mercy and Jacob Tremblay in Room but I just don’t see it happening for either of them (especially with people being angry about their catagories not helping their case).
I think Mark Rylance is the only real lock but Sylvester Stallone is getting pretty close as he builds more and more momentum. I have Mark Ruffalo in as well because I can’t see them not giving someone from Spotlight a nom and he has the most oscar friendly performance. On top of that there is Idris Elba who is far from a lock but is looking like he’ll sneak in and Christian Bale who I believe is still in the process of building steam for his performance in the big short.
I could believe Tom Hardy pulling a Jonah Hill though or Michael Keaton getting in. This is such an exciting year for this catagory because I just mentioned 10 people whom all have chances, even if I don’t think some of them will it is so believable that any of them will and there are alot of them.
Realistically the only other person with a shot however is Benedicio Del Toro for Sicario which would be awesome but just seems like too much of a long shot at this stage (and Harrison Ford doesn’t stand a chance).January 5, 2016 at 4:31 am #201003
Benicio Del Toro is coming guys. Watch out!!!
I think Del Toro deserves a second Oscar for Sicario. He was trully outstanding.January 8, 2016 at 9:46 am #201004
I can’t believe that this thread already slipped to a third page considering the volatility and uncertainty in this category. By my count, I see 11 contenders with strong cases, plus several others that could be in the mix, with ballots just about due:
Mark Rylance (literally the only contender to show up in this category at all awards)
Sylvester Stallone (comeback story of the year)
Idris Elba (has plenty of Luther love and is also the most likely candidate to stop an “Oscars so white” repeat)
Mark Ruffalo (a recent favorite who actually delivers the showiest performance in the movie)
Michael Keaton (“condolences” for losing for Birdman seems to be the best argument)
Christian Bale (the male former acting winner in the central role in an ensemble in a movie quickly rising)
Michael Shannon (a former nominee who is the standout in a little seen indie)
Jacob Tremblay (the breakthrough youth performance primarily rewarded as “breakthrough” or “youth”)
Tom Hardy (a lot of recent attention and in a high profile movie the same year as starring in Mad Max)
Paul Dano (years of good performances and the standout of a well-received movie)
Benicio Del Toro (a former winner racking up nominations for a well-received movie)
Seriously, it seems to me that anything can happen, especially after today’s BAFTA nominations. I’m still (perhaps foolishly) keeping Bradley Cooper and Seth Rogen in my predictions, but I can’t remember the last time that an acting category was this wide open and really look forward to seeing the final list next week!January 8, 2016 at 10:10 am #201005
Ugh if Ruffalo is the Spotlight nomination here.
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